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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Feb 12, 2015 5:56 pm

@amugs wrote:Back loaded weak Nino winter peeps 78-79 said it before and I just said it again!

Love the look of the Tuesday night wednesday storm holy cow !!!!

I believe you meant 77/78 but we get the idea.

Braggart, JK Very Happy
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:08 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@amugs wrote:Back loaded weak Nino winter peeps 78-79 said it before and I just said it again!

Love the look of the Tuesday night wednesday storm holy cow !!!!

I believe you meant 77/78 but we get the idea.

Braggart, JK Very Happy

Yes CP you are 1000% correct and the whole area is in this next one - there is plenty of cold to brutally cold air over SE Canada and it looks like ow a nice HP settles in north of the GL area - could be a wicked storm IMO. Coast and LI may have issues but I like the look a lot.

Okay MJO going to phase 8 and we get a -WPO/-EPO/+PNA- both stout - neutral NAO and AO from the looks - this all can work out just fine - if we can get that east based block to slide a tad west to become an Uber Straits block or even a Greenland then folks we get Godzilla or a Roidzilla. Heck if we get a strong 50/50 low block it can work for those as well. The STJ will be pumping with this trop forcing in the PAC - the big ridge in the west and cross polar flow will be favorably positioned for storms along the east coast albeit Mid Atlantic the next two weeks so we have many chances upcoming. I think we go into mid March with this type of pattern - sorry Phil made the call - hahaha!!

After that the PNA rolls east to the Rockies - not bad but east coast looks to have southern sliders but we can make it work with closed off lows and a West based block. We'll see.

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Post by mancave25 Thu Feb 12, 2015 7:45 pm

When does any one see this pattern breaking

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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:20 pm

I'm all-in on the Tuesday into Wednesday storm. One of these has to go our way and this is the type of storm I like to see coming up from the south into a cold air mass. Let's go.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:26 pm

Agree billg!

Frank was mentioning days ago he liked the chances for that time frame.I don't know how the frig he does it!

Anyway, Gulf moisture plus cold Canadian air mass can wreak havoc up here snow wise.

Here's hoping!
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Post by billg315 Thu Feb 12, 2015 8:35 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Agree billg!

Frank was mentioning days ago he liked the chances for that time frame.I don't know how the frig he does it!

Anyway, Gulf moisture plus cold Canadian air mass can wreak havoc up here snow wise.

Here's hoping!

Yep bring up that Gulf moisture and keep us on the back side of a low coming up from the south. I'm tired of waiting for these clippers to redevelop and explode off the coast. They almost never get their act together quickly enough for us.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 12, 2015 10:35 pm

Ryan maue tweeted that 18z gfs looks "blizzardish" for NYC to boston, lol omg they must hate the weather up there (except weenies).
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:18 am

Local Mets already saying Tuesday/Wednesday storm will be pushed OTS by cold lobe coming down from Canada.
Isn't it a little early to be making such a statement so soon ? But with the way things have been going so far this season it'll probably happen. UGH !
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:43 am

I wouldn't put to much stock into that right now and actually at this point its a good sign
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:41 am

NWS Upton on Next week. Nice disco:
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS MON INTO MON NIGHT AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY TUE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME IN LOCKING IN
WITH A STORM TRACK AS THEY HAVE SWAYED BACK AND FORTH FROM A JUST
INLAND LOW TRACK TO OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ARE OFFSHORE WITH THE
00Z ECMWF AND GGEM STAYING FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE REGION
DRY AND COLD. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE OPTING FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WITH A TRACK TO THE NW OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND CMC
ENSEMBLES. THUS...PREFER TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES DURING THIS PERIOD
AND WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY WEATHER TUE INTO WED.
HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR FOLLOWS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THU.


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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:43 am

We can't stick our heads in the sand. This storm for Tuesday Wednesday has gone from precip concerns because it might cut to OTS now without even grazing us. This mornings GFS that storm doesn't even affect us it's so far OTS.

There's plenty of time for change but so far it's been a horrible change in just 24 hours. So what else is new.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 13, 2015 6:47 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:We can't stick our heads in the sand. This storm for Tuesday Wednesday has gone from precip concerns because it might cut to OTS now without even grazing us. This mornings GFS that storm doesn't even affect us it's so far OTS.

There's plenty of time for change but so far it's been a horrible change in just 24 hours. So what else is new.

And so 4 days out the soln is locked in? As is the case all year storm 1 needs to come together before we see what happens to storm two. Still uncertainty about storm weekend storm. We track!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 13, 2015 7:12 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:We can't stick our heads in the sand. This storm for Tuesday Wednesday has gone from precip concerns because it might cut to OTS now without even grazing us. This mornings GFS that storm doesn't even affect us it's so far OTS.

There's plenty of time for change but so far it's been a horrible change in just 24 hours. So what else is new.

And so 4 days out the soln is locked in?  As is the case all year storm 1 needs to come together before we see what happens to storm two.  Still uncertainty about storm weekend storm.  We track!

Attaboy, Doc.

It reminds me of that old routine where the soldier is freaking out and the Sarge slaps him in the face.Now calm, the soldier replies..."thanks, I needed that!"

I feel bad for CP, these models will jerk you around into oblivion, but we saw how they handle Miller A's at this point with the BD Blizzard being OTS as well.

KCACO
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Post by devsman Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:08 am

so gfs has storm 7-10 days before then has it gone from days 4-6, then it comes back for the last 72-96 hours. WHere have i seen this before?
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Post by SNOW MAN Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:14 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:We can't stick our heads in the sand. This storm for Tuesday Wednesday has gone from precip concerns because it might cut to OTS now without even grazing us. This mornings GFS that storm doesn't even affect us it's so far OTS.

There's plenty of time for change but so far it's been a horrible change in just 24 hours. So what else is new.

Do you think the Jman can give you, me and Doc a group therapy session after this winter comes to an end.
I think we all could use it.
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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:00 am

Patience with the long range - we have to get this bad boy that is going to explode in the GOMaine and form a 50/50 block for our next storm - the pattern is good for a storm - stout PNA nice -EPO and WPO with a SW ejecting from the SW and the STJ being active. The missing elements are the -AO and -NAO at this time but that can be made up in other ways with a slightly pos or neutral indices there.

You go model run to model run you'll wind up jumping off the bridge teh way have handled our winter or affraid or drunken and doing this scratch

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:07 am

Just a quick word regarding the Tuesday wed system...I know we have to get through the weekend, but the OTS soln showing up for Tues Wed just doesn't make a lot of sense. With a mean ridge axis as west as it is and as potent as it is as shown on the GFS as well as the others it would favor a more robust northern piece; therefore more digging, and more phasing of the branches earlier which would pull that system back to the coast. If I were a betting man my gut would tell me to put some, not all, chips down on a phased system that might even cut but more likely be somewhere near the coast with impacts for our area.
[img]Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 2 Gfs_z515[/img]

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:45 am

@sroc4 wrote:Just a quick word regarding the Tuesday wed system...I know we have to get through the weekend, but the OTS soln showing up for Tues Wed just doesn't make a lot of sense.  With a mean ridge axis as west as it is and as potent as it is as shown on the GFS as well as the others it would favor a more robust northern piece; therefore more digging, and more phasing of the branches earlier which would pull that system back to the coast.  If I were a betting man my gut would tell me to put some, not all, chips down on a phased system that might even cut but more likely be somewhere near the coast with impacts for our area.  
Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 2 <a href=Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 2 Gfs_z515" />

Yup. Also looks to be a log jam with east-based blocking.

I do not buy the OTS solutions AT ALL

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:17 am

@ Frank - thank for clarifying my general post above yours - not enough time and I concur 1000000000000% - no way they'll bring it back in the next few runs

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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 10:41 am

Henry Margusity says storm gone for next week just can't see that at this time!

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:08 am

NICE spot to be in!!!

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne4_f117

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Post by sroc4 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:12 am

@jimv45 wrote:Henry Margusity says storm gone for next week just can't see that at this time!

Means BECS incoming

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:13 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Henry Margusity says storm gone for next week just can't see that at this time!

Means BECS incoming

You beat me to that, Doc, was just going to post that.

Take it to the bank if HM says it's OTS!!!
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Post by jimv45 Fri Feb 13, 2015 11:20 am

yea that's what I said!! how in the world can anyone write off this threat the way these models have been!

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Post by essexcountypete Fri Feb 13, 2015 12:31 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jimv45 wrote:Henry Margusity says storm gone for next week just can't see that at this time!

Means BECS incoming

You beat me to that, Doc, was just going to post that.

Take it to the bank if HM says it's OTS!!!

Beat me to it as well. Best news I've heard all day.
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