Re: Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:09 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The type of temps associated with this system is what you usually see mid-winter. Even if the storm tracks as far north as the NAM did, while there may be mixing at first, I think it will be short-lived. How many times this season have storms trended colder? Many.

Great point.

by Yschiff Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:11 pm

Frank do you think the GFS is under doing the precip?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:15 pm

Yschiff wrote:Frank do you think the GFS is under doing the precip?

Yes, definitely. Not so much for southern area. I think it's underestimating the lift to the north

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:30 pm

00z CMC is a strong hit for NYC Metro and points south, moderate N&W

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f63

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f66

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f69

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:32 pm

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:32 pm

What does it look like compared to 12z?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:32 pm

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f57

These are prior frames

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:33 pm

Looks like GFS to me

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:34 pm

rb924119 wrote:What does it look like compared to 12z?

Precip shield is more expansive 00z run. Not such a sharp cut off by you. Heaviest precip though looks a bit more south

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:35 pm

Wow southern NJ gets hammered!!!

by Yschiff Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:36 pm

Snow map?

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like GFS to me

Yes it does.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:36 pm

A Met from another board says H7 temps are below 0 for entire event for NYC, even during the rain part. So once everything else cools, it should be all snow. That may have been close to a Godzilla run if that's the case

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:What does it look like compared to 12z?

Precip shield is more expansive 00z run. Not such a sharp cut off by you. Heaviest precip though looks a bit more south

Good. Good. Not so good lmao

by Biggin23 Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:37 pm

Frank....we need this last hoorah. My first winter in the northeast would be epic with record cold and one storm that delivered the goods. After that we can move on to spring!! Hoping we all cash in, including South Central NJ!

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:A Met from another board says H7 temps are below 0 for entire event for NYC, even during the rain part. So once everything else cools, it should be all snow. That may have been close to a Godzilla run if that's the case

I'd imagine so too. Still hugging the NAM so tight I might fix the damn thing Laughing

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:39 pm

00z GEFS should be initializing soon....

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:42 pm

Biggin23 wrote:Frank....we need this last hoorah. My first winter in the northeast would be epic with record cold and one storm that delivered the goods. After that we can move on to spring!! Hoping we all cash in, including South Central NJ!

Welcome to the northeast, where you get all your seasons and then some.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:42 pm

rb924119 wrote:00z GEFS should be initializing soon....

They better. I'm beat.

by **jimv45** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:45 pm

More precipitation south but better ratios north everyone does well.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:45 pm

jimv45 wrote:More precipitation south but better ratios north everyone does well.

Pretty much what I am hoping for

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:45 pm

GEFS initialized

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:48 pm

00z UKIE

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 11026020_801549059923294_7362561360384347273_n

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:48 pm

Here is 72

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 10996014_801549189923281_452159009167663581_n

by **jimv45** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:49 pm

Yea frank lets get everyone this time.

by **rb924119** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:51 pm

You have total QPF for the UKMET, Frank?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Mar 02, 2015 11:53 pm

00z GEFS - Madonne

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f54

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 18 GFS-ENS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f60

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