*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

Frank_Wx wrote:

YEAH I KNOW HOW DEVASTATING this would be verbatim, but man would I be stoked to experience this out here on LI.

I say IF she comes this way we have an impromptu last minute get together to track!!!

GFS is rolling, will be interesting to see what it shows.

....One other thing to note. I'm a BIG believer and always have been that big storms like Hurricanes or very powerful Nor-Easters when they impact us create(for lack of a better word/term) holes or tracks in the atmosphere that future storms like to follow. IF (and I know it's still a long shot) this thing comes up this way it could very well set us up for a nice storm track for future storms this winter.

AND I'M AFRAID JMAN MIGHT BE SO AROUSED BY THE WINDS HE PASSES OUT DUE TO LOW BLOOD PRESSURE!!08.27.2015

syosnow94 wrote:....One other thing to note.  I'm a BIG believer and always have been that big storms like Hurricanes or very powerful Nor-Easters when they impact us create(for lack of a better word/term) holes or tracks in the atmosphere that future storms like to follow. IF (and I know it's still a long shot) this thing comes up this way it could very well set us up for a nice storm track for future storms this winter.

AND I'M AFRAID JMAN MIGHT BE SO AROUSED BY THE WINDS HE PASSES OUT DUE TO LOW BLOOD PRESSURE!!08.27.2015

I'm trying to figure out why NHC went further west with their track

Through hour 72 on the 18z GFS the system looks slightly further north.

Hour 84 sitting just east of Miami.

Looks to be strengthening at hour 90 just off the coast of Florida. A bit further east this run.

Slowly heading north at 108. Looks stronger than last run.

This thing hugs the Florida coast for a very long time.

Hour 144 landfall might be happening right on the Georgia/Florida border.

162 heading inland towards Atlanta... lol

180 weakens over northern Georgia... well this is new.

From the other board:

New Gulfstream-IV data in the 00z GFS tonight:

The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS.

Starting to show up on the San Juan radar:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JUA

snow247 wrote:From the other board:

New Gulfstream-IV data in the 00z GFS tonight:

The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS.

Here is the real time data: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Lol @ the "hurricane models". They've never net a system they didn't like.

jmanley32 wrote:Holy GFDL, and last two frames starts go NW, thats one devastating storm.

Impressive yet frightening scenario indeed. With Erika taking a more NW jog recently, its starting to look like she might miss the islands entirely which would give her a lot of real estate to strengthen with those warm ocean bath waters. Should at the very least give us something interesting to track which is a good thing in my book since its been weatherwise a bore fest this summer.

I don't want that!

skinsfan1177 wrote:I don't want that!

I DO!!!!

As of right now I would say the most likely scenario is a landfall somewhere between Florida and South Carolina, strength to be determined. This is just based on current data though, so of course it could and probably will change.

If I had to guess:
Southeast states (mainly FL, GA, and SC): 50%
North Carolina: 40%
Our area: 10%