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*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:46 pm

GFS is rolling, will be interesting to see what it shows.
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Post by Guest Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:50 pm

....One other thing to note. I'm a BIG believer and always have been that big storms like Hurricanes or very powerful Nor-Easters when they impact us create(for lack of a better word/term) holes or tracks in the atmosphere that future storms like to follow. IF (and I know it's still a long shot) this thing comes up this way it could very well set us up for a nice storm track for future storms this winter.

AND I'M AFRAID JMAN MIGHT BE SO AROUSED BY THE WINDS HE PASSES OUT DUE TO LOW BLOOD PRESSURE!!08.27.2015 tongue tongue tongue

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:55 pm

syosnow94 wrote:....One other thing to note.  I'm a BIG believer and always have been that big storms like Hurricanes or very powerful Nor-Easters when they impact us create(for lack of a better word/term) holes or tracks in the atmosphere that future storms like to follow. IF (and I know it's still a long shot) this thing comes up this way it could very well set us up for a nice storm track for future storms this winter.

AND I'M AFRAID JMAN MIGHT BE SO AROUSED BY THE WINDS HE PASSES OUT DUE TO LOW BLOOD PRESSURE!!08.27.2015 tongue tongue tongue

Laughing Laughing Laughing


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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:56 pm

I'm trying to figure out why NHC went further west with their track

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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:58 pm

Through hour 72 on the 18z GFS the system looks slightly further north.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:02 pm

Hour 84 sitting just east of Miami.

Looks to be strengthening at hour 90 just off the coast of Florida. A bit further east this run.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:10 pm

Slowly heading north at 108. Looks stronger than last run.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:18 pm

This thing hugs the Florida coast for a very long time.

Hour 144 landfall might be happening right on the Georgia/Florida border.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:27 pm

162 heading inland towards Atlanta... lol
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:33 pm

180 weakens over northern Georgia... well this is new.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:31 pm

From the other board:

New Gulfstream-IV data in the 00z GFS tonight:

The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS.
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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:32 pm

Starting to show up on the San Juan radar:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=JUA
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:38 pm

@snow247 wrote:From the other board:

New Gulfstream-IV data in the 00z GFS tonight:

The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS.

Here is the real time data: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:39 pm

syosnow94 wrote:....One other thing to note.  I'm a BIG believer and always have been that big storms like Hurricanes or very powerful Nor-Easters when they impact us create(for lack of a better word/term) holes or tracks in the atmosphere that future storms like to follow. IF (and I know it's still a long shot) this thing comes up this way it could very well set us up for a nice storm track for future storms this winter.

AND I'M AFRAID JMAN MIGHT BE SO AROUSED BY THE WINDS HE PASSES OUT DUE TO LOW BLOOD PRESSURE!!08.27.2015 tongue tongue tongue

syo LMFAO! is the date nstamp a copy right lol. Wow you were so bold to say it but ya I would be excited about the wind. I just wish there was a way to have the wind without the destruction.

GFS made landfall into georgia, is this a plausible solution?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:53 pm

Holy GFDL, and last two frames starts go NW, thats one devastating storm.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 5 18z_gf11
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Post by Noreaster Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:30 pm

Lol @ the "hurricane models". They've never net a system they didn't like.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:33 pm

Well in contrast the HWRF a total dud.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:44 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Holy GFDL, and last two frames starts go NW, thats one devastating storm.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 5 18z_gf11
Impressive yet frightening scenario indeed. With Erika taking a more NW jog recently, its starting to look like she might miss the islands entirely which would give her a lot of real estate to strengthen with those warm ocean bath waters. Should at the very least give us something interesting to track which is a good thing in my book since its been weatherwise a bore fest this summer.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:47 pm

I don't want that!
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Post by Guest Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:56 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:I don't want that!

I DO!!!! Laughing Laughing

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:01 pm

Syo you and I are sick mofos!
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:02 pm

I cannot even fathom winds over 90mph. With bob was strongest I think I ever felt.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:04 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Holy GFDL, and last two frames starts go NW, thats one devastating storm.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 5 18z_gf11
Impressive yet frightening scenario indeed. With Erika taking a more NW jog recently, its starting to look like she might miss the islands entirely which would give her a lot of real estate to strengthen with those warm ocean bath waters. Should at the very least give us something interesting to track which is a good thing in my book since its been weatherwise a bore fest this summer.

Actually shes still moving due north per NHC, she may actually miss the islands if she turns NW just at the right time like you said but right now still on west tran and slowed to 12mph, slowing down quick, will change a lot of things.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:08 pm

look at blue GFDL, frank you mentioned this has a fairly goot record with track, the intensity I posted above is probably way too strong but GFDL is b-line for area on that sketti model which goes further north than the actual model run.

*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika - Page 5 Gfdl10

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Post by snow247 Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:17 pm

As of right now I would say the most likely scenario is a landfall somewhere between Florida and South Carolina, strength to be determined. This is just based on current data though, so of course it could and probably will change.

If I had to guess:
Southeast states (mainly FL, GA, and SC): 50%
North Carolina: 40%
Our area: 10%


Last edited by snow247 on Thu Aug 27, 2015 9:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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