Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 05, 2015 10:17 pm

Yeah the LR OP runs are pretty much useless at this point. 12z showed GLCs only, 18z showed Apps runner and big offshore coastal. Will change with every run but important thing is its active and can only hope for the better solutions to win out. Screw GLCs, keep that crap in November, not late December.

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:58 pm

On the GFS, Cold air comes crashing down after 2 lakes cutters. The cold comes down around the 18th.

by **Vinnydula** Sun Dec 06, 2015 12:31 am

Good news but how long does the cold stick around for

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sun Dec 06, 2015 12:41 am

Snow88 wrote:On the GFS, Cold air comes crashing down after 2 lakes cutters. The cold comes down around the 18th.

More like a cutter an an apps runner.

by **rb924119** Sun Dec 06, 2015 1:16 am

amugs wrote:THIS is a good sign.

[flash]

Two things to say to this:

1. It's the GFS so remember that

2. HO-LY SH!T

lmao

by **Snow88** Sun Dec 06, 2015 8:37 am

I really think we have to wait until January for the true pattern change.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 06, 2015 9:20 am

Snow88 wrote:I really think we have to wait until January for the true pattern change.

We're on a similar timeline as last year.

I just checked out some ensemble runs and they look awful. Low heights over Alaska into western US, no blocking, zonal flow across U.S. Also, the warming event I am tracking in the Stratosphere appears to be temporary. Meaning there's no true SSWE in sight just yet. We have a long way to go.

by **Math23x7** Sun Dec 06, 2015 11:46 am

In 2016, Easter Sunday will be on March 27th. Do you think it is likely that Christmas 2015 will be warmer than Easter 2016?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Dec 06, 2015 12:20 pm

Math23x7 wrote:In 2016, Easter Sunday will be on March 27th. Do you think it is likely that Christmas 2015 will be warmer than Easter 2016?

Good question. I think Easter will be warmer.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Dec 06, 2015 2:43 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:In 2016, Easter Sunday will be on March 27th. Do you think it is likely that Christmas 2015 will be warmer than Easter 2016?

Good question. I think Easter will be warmer.

I'd bet Easter will be much colder and snowier to boot. This December will go down as the warmest in history.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:25 pm

Another day driving with the windows down lol, its kinda nice but am hoping the change takes place around or right after xmas. Al you may win the temp on xmas!

by **algae888** Sun Dec 06, 2015 3:47 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Another day driving with the windows down lol, its kinda nice but am hoping the change takes place around or right after xmas. Al you may win the temp on xmas!

jman reading all the winter outlooks I kinda new dec would be warm and I figured a 60+ degree day would happen. however by xmass I think we would be closer to normal. outside today tilling the soil as my crocus and daffodils have broke through. they will probably bloom before dec ends

by **amugs** Sun Dec 06, 2015 10:29 pm

Mid Jan to Mid late March we rock. Dec was always forecasted to be above normal, tough pill to swallow but winter is to start on Dec 21. GEFS and GEPS (CMC) ensembles do not look bad at this time and have not for the last few days. Not great but not bad.

More to come - mid Jan to Mid March is the period we have winter and we rock from Feb to Mid March

by **amugs** Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:32 am

Weekly ENSO Anomalies:
Region 1+2: +2.4°C (No change)
Region 3: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)
Region 3.4: +2.9°C (-0.1°C)
Region 4: +1.7°C (-0.1°C)

Historically El Nino's collapse from east to west - how fast we cool is going to be interesting. But a good sign at this stage.

by chief7 Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:44 am

Mugs when does the seasonal models come out (aka) UK the European Japanese

by **amugs** Mon Dec 07, 2015 9:45 am

chief7 wrote:Mugs when does the seasonal models come out (aka) UK the European Japanese

I thought today(?) at 10AM

by chief7 Mon Dec 07, 2015 11:01 am

I was thinking the same thing

by **rb924119** Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:08 pm

Uhhhh Frank, FRANK!! CALLING FRANK!!! You still sure about the Stratosphere not showing better signs???

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Fluxes

Honestly though, haven't looked at much at all, just a quick perusing, but this looks kinda hopeful to me. What do you think?

by **Snow88** Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:21 pm

12z Euro has a weak -AO and -NAO at day 8. I can see a storm around the time but it would favor the interior .

by **Snow88** Mon Dec 07, 2015 2:33 pm

Euro vs GFS
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/hgtcomp.html

by **algae888** Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:31 pm

this posted on another board...

"Since 1950, there have been 7 prior winters that saw December record 7 or more consecutive 50° or warmer high temperatures in NYC. Those with heart issues or other health problems, as well as those near ledges or other high places, should read no further.

That sorry list of years produced the following December-February temperature anomalies:

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 12072015warmdec

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 12072015warmdec

December snowfall for NYC was as follows:

1951-52: 3.3"

1953-54: Trace

1982-83: 3.0"

1991-92: 0.7"

1998-99: 2.0"

1999-00: Trace

2001-02: Trace

Mean: 1.3"

Median: 0.7"

Seasonal snowfall for NYC was as follows:

1951-52: 19.7"

1953-54: 15.8"

1982-83: 27.2"

1991-92: 12.6"

1998-99: 12.7"

1999-00: 16.3"

2001-02: 3.5"

Mean: 15.4"

Median: 15.8"

by **algae888** Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:45 pm

and what's probably unprecedented is that this dec will probably have two such streaks. after tomorrows highs in the forties nyc is right back to the 50's for the foreseeable future.

by **Quietace** Mon Dec 07, 2015 4:55 pm

algae888 wrote:this posted on another board...

"Since 1950, there have been 7 prior winters that saw December record 7 or more consecutive 50° or warmer high temperatures in NYC. Those with heart issues or other health problems, as well as those near ledges or other high places, should read no further.

That sorry list of years produced the following December-February temperature anomalies:

December snowfall for NYC was as follows:

1951-52: 3.3"

1953-54: Trace

1982-83: 3.0"

1991-92: 0.7"

1998-99: 2.0"

1999-00: Trace

2001-02: Trace

Mean: 1.3"

Median: 0.7"

Seasonal snowfall for NYC was as follows:

1951-52: 19.7"

1953-54: 15.8"

1982-83: 27.2"

1991-92: 12.6"

1998-99: 12.7"

1999-00: 16.3"

2001-02: 3.5"

Mean: 15.4"

Median: 15.8"

That data looks indistinguashable to the March 2012 departures. Steady trough in the west and ridging over the east. It was my freshman year of high school, and we were running with t-shirts and shorts for track.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Temp-anom-mar2012

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 13 Temp-anom-mar2012

by **dkodgis** Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:08 pm

Perception being the better part of reality, I would have thought that the entire world was freezing if I went by the last two winters. Then I see NOAA maps that show the entire world is warming up except for the NE. So finally, the NE is warming up and the other parts of the country are seeing cold and snow. Go figure. Two years ago, oil hit $4.50 a gallon and it was oh so cold. Now, it is $1.87 a gallon and it is oh so warm. Two years ago, it was the coldest winter I have ever seen. Now, the winter today looks like a typical South Jersey winter...where no one need buy snow tires and plowing is unheard of except on the highways. I guess El Nino did not fall apart.

by **dkodgis** Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:10 pm

Henry says Jan and Feb snow will hit NE and cold, too, and that El Nino has peaked and is going neutral or putting on a skirt and vamping as La Nina.

by **dkodgis** Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:11 pm

Oops: Henry's link http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/stormy-weather-across-the-pacific-northwest-this-week/54054023

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 07, 2015 5:30 pm

dkodgis wrote:Henry says Jan and Feb snow will hit NE and cold, too, and that El Nino has peaked and is going neutral or putting on a skirt and vamping as La Nina.

Pretty much agrees with what we have been all saying along with many other mets, JB, LC, SD, the gang at EPAWA to name a few.

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