Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[HectorO]

Imagine if this continues through March. We'll be so acclimated to warm weather that if we get hammered next winter, we're going to freeze to death. This week will be the warmest winter I've been in since I left Florida 10 years ago.

[Frank_Wx]

AAM anomalies are forecasted to stay positive over the next 10 days. Not surprising since Cohen's chart shows a couple of +WAF attacks in the next 2 weeks. This has support from the MJO. The GEFS predict the MJO to enter phase 7 which would favors +AAM anomalies and favorable tropical forcing.

[Snow88]

0z GFS brings in the cold around Jan 1 but only for a few days before a ridge comes back. It looks nothing like the ensembles. It's also in weenie land so take anything that far with a grain of salt.

[Abba701]

Ive been reading here that on the 4th it would be normal.What ridge does it show? Another 70 degree one?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Imagine if this continues through March. We'll be so acclimated to warm weather that if we get hammered next winter, we're going to freeze to death. This week will be the warmest winter I've been in since I left Florida 10 years ago.

Well the warmest December by far in 147 years of record keeping will do that. I've lived in this area for over 50 years and have never seen a December anything like this. Preceded by a pretty crappy November I might add.

[Abba701]

Something tells me there will be a payback at some point in the next few months.But I could be wrong.

[docstox12]

Something tells me there will be a payback at some point in the next few months.But I could be wrong.

I've got that too, Abba.This November and December have coiled the spring to a level unseen before and something has to give.Hoping it does in February and March and NOT in April and May with cold and rain.UGH!!!

[Abba701]

That's right.And September was also very warm..My main concern is that summer will be extremely hot.

[docstox12]

Well I think from reading the Long Range Thread, a very strong El Nino leads to a La Nina so whatever that will bring for summer will be interesting.

[NjWeatherGuy]

0z GFS brings in the cold around Jan 1 but only for a few days before a ridge comes back. It looks nothing like the ensembles. It's also in weenie land so take anything that far with a grain of salt.

Not really a ridge, progressive PAC flow that keeps the whole country mild. I think these signals are pointing to the pattern slowly changing. No amped SE ridge and trough in the west anymore. Instead transient troughiness in the east followed by progressive mild but not warm flow, alternating cycles. Eventually the PV will settle over eastern Canada hopefully and push the arctic air into the eastern US for good. NAO looking to go neutral.

[sroc4]

0z GFS brings in the cold around Jan 1 but only for a few days before a ridge comes back. It looks nothing like the ensembles. It's also in weenie land so take anything that far with a grain of salt.

Not really a ridge, progressive PAC flow that keeps the whole country mild. I think these signals are pointing to the pattern slowly changing. No amped SE ridge and trough in the west anymore. Instead transient troughiness in the east followed by progressive mild but not warm flow, alternating cycles. Eventually the PV will settle over eastern Canada hopefully and push the arctic air into the eastern US for good. NAO looking to go neutral.

Interpreting a single GFS run in the 300hr range esp during a transition, is like interpreting how a starting picture will perform in the post season in April. European and GFS ensembles are showing a strong signal for a positive pna and negative EPO. Step one.

[algae888]

0z GFS brings in the cold around Jan 1 but only for a few days before a ridge comes back. It looks nothing like the ensembles. It's also in weenie land so take anything that far with a grain of salt.

Not really a ridge, progressive PAC flow that keeps the whole country mild. I think these signals are pointing to the pattern slowly changing. No amped SE ridge and trough in the west anymore. Instead transient troughiness in the east followed by progressive mild but not warm flow, alternating cycles. Eventually the PV will settle over eastern Canada hopefully and push the arctic air into the eastern US for good. NAO looking to go neutral.

Interpreting a single GFS run in the 300hr range esp during a transition, is like interpreting how a starting picture will perform in the post season in April.   European and GFS ensembles are showing a strong signal for a positive pna and negative EPO.  Step one.

yes scott and the pna signal is only getting stronger each day..

step 3...mjo which is probably why we get the +pna/-epo...


this signal is also getting stronger esp the gfs coming in line with the euro. notice how the indian ocean convection has died down.next up the strat

[algae888]

today's new MJO forecast from almost all guidance including the euro and GFS continues to show the wave more amplified and heading into phase 7 and 8 in the next 7 days to 14 days. Dare I say that we should see our first snowfall during this time. mugs I can't post the maps can you post them for me on my cell today

[algae888]

I see the euro map updated in my previous post

[algae888]

I know we still have to get through this god awful week but what is very encouraging is that the signals that the guidance and models have been showing these last few days have been getting stronger with each passing day. This includes the pna MJO and the stratosphere. Also as all these indicators head to a better state for us the AO is also headed negative at least for a short time. As Steve d would say fun times ahead.

[rb924119]

Hey Al, to add to your commentary, the period right after New Year's is really catching my eye. That's when the pattern looks to switch it up, even if only temporarily. Don't really have time to go into an in-depth analysis, but if you look at the ensembles, both EPS and GEFS, you can clearly see how the western trough gets the proverbial boot to the east as the Aleutian low retrogrades and consolidates and allows ridging to work into the west. That said, as that upper level trough and associated energy gets shunted east, depending on how rapidly the transition can occur in the PNA and more specifically the EPO regions, we might see a sizable event come from this transition, even without the help of the STJ; which is and has been quite active. I think we are really going to have to watch what happens in the models with respect to this transition, because there is some serious potential IMO. Obviously details of wet or white cannot be determined, but with the present looks of building western ridging and sort of an intermediate mix of zonal/meridional flow through the East, it may favor a coastal. Again, just my opinion; maybe others can weigh in?

[algae888]

Yes rb you're correct in saying that the pattern is changing. I've read on other boards where people are saying the pattern will relax. that implies that the trough will  still be in the West and a ridge in the East and we will still be above normal but not as high as we are now. However this is not the case as the pattern will flip as you have stated. As long as the +PNA Ridge bills in the West and we can get close to normal any short wave that comes through the flow has a chance of exploding once it hits the East Coast. just look at today's GFS at day 10. The question then becomes does this have any staying power and does the NAO follow suit and go negative or does the pattern go back to the one we have been in. we shall see

[skinsfan1177]

So is their any signs as we speak now that show when the pattern flips it may eventually get locked in. What do we need for it to the AO to go negative I know past couple winters NAO has been meaning less

[algae888]

Today's gfs has a significant ice storm for our northern and western suburbs on Monday which is 6 days out. it starts at snow and then turns to ice. not unrealistic as today's run has the high pressure which is very strong in a favorable place for cold air damming. would favor the interior over coastal locations though

[algae888]

So is their any signs as we speak now that show when the pattern flips it may eventually get locked in. What do we need for it to the AO to go negative I know past couple winters NAO has been meaning less

Skins as of today the pattern is already starting to change and we should feel its effects starting next week with a return to more normal temperatures and storms that will less likely cut. In regards to the NAO we don't necessarily need it to be negative. We just need it to fluctuate back and forth from positive to negative and so on. I've read where data shows when this occurs storms often form near our area

[amugs]

Well well - the models playing catch up to the pertubation in the atmosphere - the startosphere is seeing a ssw amongst, waves are getting shorter and going into winter mode. The MJO saying we go into phase 7 and then into 8 and Earthlight and Isotherm saying the changes are already happening over our heads but have not made to us YET!

Look at this:


From the Bell at the models playing catch up - no denying it peeps the changes are coming - get out the hot flash meds for some will be needing it as we get into JAN - ooofffffaaaaaaaaaa!!

[nutleyblizzard]

With today's encouraging developments I wonder if Frank is ready to commit on a date for a pattern change.

[skinsfan1177]

Well well - the models playing catch up to the pertubation in the atmosphere - the startosphere is seeing a ssw amongst, waves are getting shorter and going into winter mode. The MJO saying we go into phase 7 and then into 8 and Earthlight and Isotherm saying the changes are already happening over our heads but have not made to us YET!

Look at this:


From the Bell at the models playing catch up - no denying it peeps the changes are coming - get out the hot flash meds for some will be needing it as we get into JAN - ooofffffaaaaaaaaaa!!

Is it for certain it goes into phase 8 or can it crash after 7

[amugs]

@ Skins - nothing is certain but it showing the progression of this and with the IO going more neutral it will allow the trop convection near the dateline (Basin Wide Nino)to start to flex its muscle. Now this will also affect the EPO and raise the heights - warm air aloft rising into the region helping neutralize and bring our EPO into a negative phase whilst pumping the heights of the West coast PNA Positive and thus building a trough in the SE. We shall see.

[algae888]

Oh-no I just read this from a met from another board...
 "Here's the problem with your MJO argument.  In ENSO filtered MJO events (those years where we have Jan ENSO 3.4 anomalies >1 degree above normal) both phase 8 and phase 1 are both positively correlated to above normal temps in the northeast.  So, if you're arguing more of a phase 8 look to it, you're actually arguing for more warmth in the northeast.  That's actually reflected pretty well in the Euro ENS today, which had a +3 to +5 anomaly painted over the northeast as a mean for the 11-15 day period.
Worse yet, the phase 1 composites argue even more mild weather nationally, particularly across the northern tier.
We're certainly not going to be able to sustain +30 degree warmth, but whether we're even able to get back to seasonable conditions for longer than a 1-2 day stretch in Jan is absolutely up for debate." 
Is this true? I've never heard any other met or knowledgeable person about the weather say this. My next question if this is true is there any phase of the mjo that would favor colder than normal temperatures in the Northeast for January with enso 3.4 >1?

[algae888]

He basically goes on to say that the only way we're going to get sustained cold and below normal temperatures here in the Northeast with such a strong El Nino is to get some kind of blocking. He did not reference anyone in particular whether it's the EPO AO or NAO.
http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ is a good place to start.  That's freely available. This is the link to the site he used for his data

[skinsfan1177]

How can that be the other years we disnt have blocking and had sustained cold. El nino is declining

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