Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

by **Snow88** Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:31 pm

I think the best shot of snow in the east is with the Decemebr 18/19 possible storm ( that's if the track is good ). It looks like the cold will be here by then but it looks temporary ( right now ). The true pattern change should come in early January.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Dec 04, 2015 9:44 pm

^ Its the first true possibility on the horizon but still in garbage time for the models so tread lightly. Agree about late December or January change.

by **jmanley32** Fri Dec 04, 2015 11:55 pm

Wow 00z has the GL cutter with a 987mb LP over us with some seriously heavy rain and high winds, then....mugs I think your birthday system might just be in the right time frame and spot, headed close to BM but too far west, wayyy far out but wow two big storms back to back. goes from 996mb off carolinas to 980 just east cape cod into 961mb up past canada deepen sooner!

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:04 am

GFS says winter begins mid month. It also shows 2 big snowstorms for interior areas and New England. Looks like an active period might be on the way for mid to late December.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:10 am

yep alo 20th, and i think could placement b just right they are so strong we might get the white too.

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:11 am

According to this run, winter starts the 16th Very Happy

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:18 am

Boom, GLC sets the stage for...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151205+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:20 am

Jesus murphy.... comes later...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=360&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151205+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:25 am

The second half of the month is beginning to interest me, although keep in mind these threats are far enough out to see them disappear completely, Ive recalled several dreadful times storms showed up then dropped off as we got closer and pattern change kept on getting delayed more and more.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 05, 2015 12:28 am

Yep nj these could all b gone in days to come or we could have some exciring weeks coming up. I think safe to say not much to watch till that glc which as shown would pack a big punch hence the pattern change too. Will b interesting to watch over the next 10 to 14 days.

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 05, 2015 7:01 am

O6z gfs has two cutters no coastals. Could come back may not but no snow on thst run.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 05, 2015 7:08 am

Yea it lost it, waiting game.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 05, 2015 7:48 am

We want the cutters and I don't care if it's rain it may change the pattern.

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:31 am

Models have been terrible beyond a week. 10-14 days ago showed a storm for today, and well, that's not happening. Can't model hug with this environment, just keeping an eye on overall trends... not believing we get any real change until the end of the month as was previously discussed... going to concentrate on getting everything ready for the holidays.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Dec 05, 2015 8:46 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Models have been terrible beyond a week. 10-14 days ago showed a storm for today, and well, that's not happening. Can't model hug with this environment, just keeping an eye on overall trends... not believing we get any real change until the end of the month as was previously discussed... going to concentrate on getting everything ready for the holidays.

Correct dunnzoo their are many storms lined up and I feel one of them will come through and that may be what we need to get into a more wintry pattern by the end of the month or so. The models keep changing which to me is a sign that the pattern may as well. Many social media sites jumping to conclusions that winter will be mild bc of El Nino . winter is not even here yet lol

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 05, 2015 9:24 am

I'll explain more in the next Mo Mo blog, but the pattern is about to turn very active with frequent deep low pressure systems effecting the central and eastern parts of the country. The central US is going to see the bulk of the impact at first, with high winds and snow on the backend, but as time goes on I expect these low pressure systems to not cut and come up the coast. I think that transition will occur around Christmas...maybe later near New Years. I'm still trying to figure out timing. Anything before Christmas will cut IMO, which means we could see temps in the 50s and 60s at some point. Another above normal month coming

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 05, 2015 9:34 am

Wow...I'm getting excited. Models are beginning to show intense warming and wind reversal in the Stratosphere. I'll explain all of this soon.

by **Math23x7** Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:19 am

The CPC NAO reading from today came in at +2.8129! That destroys the old record of +2.52 on November 9th, 1978 that I mentioned in this thread! And keep in mind that there are over 24,000 NAO readings going back to 1950!

And Frank, keep in mind that at the forum meetup on January 10th at Mustang Harry's in Midtown Manhattan, with the way the winter had been slow, you looked at the ensembles that came out while we were there and pointed out that the noteworthy potential for January 24th to be the day when things change. And that happened!. Prior to January 24th, NYC had 3.7" of snow. From January 24th onward, it had 46.6" of snow. If you're getting excited, then I'm sure a pattern change is looming!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:46 am

Yes...I'm getting excited but confidence level not quite as high as I was then. I need to wait probably another week to see if the changes I'm seeing now are real or just fantasy.

by **Math23x7** Sat Dec 05, 2015 2:04 pm

I mentioned this morning that looking at the CPC data, the NAO index hit an all time record high of +2.8129! Here is Hour 0 of the 12Z GFS featuring the 500 mb height and Geo. Absolute Vorticity. Look at southwest Greenland!! If I'm not mistaken, that's the Polar Vortex at sub-488 mb!

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 12 Superp10

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 12 Superp10

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 05, 2015 2:13 pm

Math23x7 wrote:I mentioned this morning that looking at the CPC data, the NAO index hit an all time record high of +2.8129! Here is Hour 0 of the 12Z GFS featuring the 500 mb height and Geo. Absolute Vorticity. Look at southwest Greenland!! If I'm not mistaken, that's the Polar Vortex at sub-488 mb!

The Tropospheric PV is either strung out or not developed at all yet. You have to look in the Stratosphere to get a true semblance of what the PV looks like. The anomaly you mention over Greenland is a very deep low pressure system - possibly a piece of Vortex from the PV itself.

Here is the Stratospheric PV...large and in charge.This is 10hPa, essentially the upper Stratosphere..

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 12 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_1

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 12 Gfs_Tz10_nhem_1

by **algae888** Sat Dec 05, 2015 2:17 pm

The gefs in Fantasyland do not look too bad today much better than the op. Has some ridging out west in the EPO region and finally northwestern Canada has below normal temperatures. The Euro op at Day 10 looks similar with the cold building in Canada and a strong low up near Hudson Bay. Ensembles not out yet. Hopefully they'll show something positive. For us that means temperatures could get back to normal and may be setting the stage for something later on. But overall the flow looks very fast and progressive

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Dec 05, 2015 2:51 pm

Some Stratosphere discussion took place on Twitter page today

Check out Francesco Paparatto (@nj_strong_wx): https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx?s=09

by **amugs** Sat Dec 05, 2015 4:54 pm

THIS is a good sign.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 12 CVelqIUVEAABkJe

[flash(500,500)] Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 12 CVbibq1UkAAKGuK

[/flash]

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 05, 2015 5:12 pm

I like looks of that!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Dec 05, 2015 10:17 pm

Yeah the LR OP runs are pretty much useless at this point. 12z showed GLCs only, 18z showed Apps runner and big offshore coastal. Will change with every run but important thing is its active and can only hope for the better solutions to win out. Screw GLCs, keep that crap in November, not late December.

by **Snow88** Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:58 pm

On the GFS, Cold air comes crashing down after 2 lakes cutters. The cold comes down around the 18th.

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