Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[amugs]

CP,

Have faith my man I may not wear    crown but I know that Trop advection out by the dateline is like 57-58 analog almost to a T and we were -1 to +1 overall for J-M that year and received 46"+ for central park and you and me more!! I personally think Feb is -2 to -3 BN as the EPO is Neg and the AO and NAO go Neg as well.  IF the PV splits as it is modeled to then the JAMSTEC may have th right idea for cold and throw an active STJ due to the SE trough along with AN Nino we ride eh snow train and the snow weenie pschye is restored and maybe even exhausted come late Feb early early March my man - keep the faith

ITS COMING!!!!

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[Abba701]

Almost all forecasts now are forecasting 71 for a high on Thursday.So what's the highest that can be forecast? 75?80?

[Snow88]

Almost all forecasts now are forecasting 71 for a high on Thursday.So what's the highest that can be forecast? 75?80?

I have a high of 58 on Xmas

[Abba701]

58 is ok but something tells me it will be close to 78 the day before

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Almost all forecasts now are forecasting 71 for a high on Thursday.So what's the highest that can be forecast? 75?80?

The highest Christmas Eve temperature ever is 63 so that seems like a lock to be shattered just like every other warm temperature record this month.

80 has never happened in December as a matter of fact it's only happened a couple of times in NOVEMBER and that was early in November, but since this December has acted like April I rule nothing out.

[algae888]

I had a very busy weekend and just getting caught up on all the disco here. things look to be falling in place for a nice turn around in our weather heading into jan. here are the ensembles from tonights 00z runs...

day 10 eps

day 15 gefs
heights continue to rise in w/can and Alaska. that would be a nice +pna/-epo couplet similar to our pattern last year. good to see lower heights in the east.

[algae888]

and then if this were to verify then fun times ahead!

[algae888]

this post from isotherm about ssw events and lag time...interesting...
"The notion that the tropospheric pattern is hostile / very hostile until 1-2 weeks post stratospheric warming is a major myth. The actual research suggests that tropospheric changes usually occur weeks prior, and in some cases, tropospheric blocking was present for over a month before the actual warming event. The progression this winter looks quite similar to 1958 given the strong Nino / +QBO background state, though I continue to favor displacement over split. The NAM shifted largely negative by the second week of January in 1958, 3 weeks prior to the event. I expect a similar evolution here w/ the neutralization and biased negative NAM sometime in the second week of month [7th-14th]. Tomorrow night's weeklies should be interesting."

[Snow88]

Things are really looking up for the change in the first week of January.

[Guest]

I'll believe it when I see it. All this positive talk about early January is nice, but just talk. I hope it verifies, but until then.......

[algae888]

Today's MJO forecast on the Euro continues moving it into phase 7 & 8 by day 14. The GFS has also followed suit except it collapses it once reaching phase 7 into the circle of death but it's moving more in line with the Euro the last several days. Can't post maps on my cell

[amugs]

Today's MJO forecast on the Euro continues moving it into phase 7 & 8 by day 14. The GFS has also followed suit except it collapses it once reaching phase 7 into the circle of death but it's moving more in line with the Euro the last several days. Can't post  maps on my cell

[amugs]

Today's MJO forecast on the Euro continues moving it into phase 7 & 8 by day 14. The GFS has also followed suit except it collapses it once reaching phase 7 into the circle of death but it's moving more in line with the Euro the last several days. Can't post  maps on my cell

[amugs]

This we can deal with in our step down process - a very good sign along with teh Start info and maps on teh PV



+PNA and the EPO or AL Vortext is retrograding away - if we can get that PNA to spike higher into Canada then we can get some cross polar flow - more of a seasonable map than a (possibly frigid) cold map - that comes by the 3-4 week in Jan and we go from there

[Abba701]

Almost all forecasts now are forecasting 71 for a high on Thursday.So what's the highest that can be forecast? 75?80?

The highest Christmas Eve temperature ever is 63 so that seems like a lock to be shattered just like every other warm temperature record this month.

80 has never happened in December as a matter of fact it's only happened a couple of times in NOVEMBER and that was early in November, but since this December has acted like April I rule nothing out.

it's at least 75 in my opinion which is unbelievable.This is not normal at all.What is going on?

[NjWeatherGuy]

Today's MJO forecast on the Euro continues moving it into phase 7 & 8 by day 14. The GFS has also followed suit except it collapses it once reaching phase 7 into the circle of death but it's moving more in line with the Euro the last several days. Can't post  maps on my cell

Go GFS, lol.

[elkiehound]

From the DelMar Weather:

***JANUARY OUTLOOK***
The question on everyone's mind is, Where is winter in the eastern part of the US? Thanks to the "Super El Nino" (3 month average anomalies >2C) has kept the cold air locked up North. This month will likely go down as one of the least snowy Decembers for the region on record. Now what does this mean as we start heading into the heart of winter?
At this time we do still think on a monthly basis temperatures will still be above average but no where near the averages for December. Its toward the second half of the month when we are anticipating a change to a more active and cooler weather pattern. With the El Nino reaching its peak during the middle of December, we are looking at a quickly fading signal and that is a huge help for snow lovers on the shore. Fading El Nino's provide the potential for more high latitude blocking across Greenland.
A big player on the field that we are watching is the "Polar Vortex" (Stratosphere Vortex). You have heard about that term quite frequently the last few years that delivered extremely cold air to the lower 48. The stratosphere vortex this year has become very strong which is another reason why its been very warm in December as expected. The key player regarding the polar vortex is the something called a SSWE (Sudden Stratosphere Warming Event). A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere slows down or even reverses direction over the course of a few days. The change is accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins.
Current and long range models have been showing the potential for such a warming event that will occur throughout the rest of the month heading into January. ECMWF and GFS models shows the polar vortex getting displaced from the polar regions southward toward North America. These changes in the vortex causes a complete pattern change in the Northern Hemisphere. There is usually a lag of about 7-14 days before we notice the changes. Climatology speaking, the precursors we are seeing now is a good sign of a nice SSW in the works. The effects of this event would begin to show itself after the 15th of January.
We will been keeping a close eye on what goes on with the stratosphere. Very hard at predicting what it will do.

[chief7]

Is anybody concerned about the mjo being so weak going from phase 6 into the circle of death I'm barely making it to phase 7 the European model that is

[sroc4]

From the DelMar Weather:

***JANUARY OUTLOOK***
The question on everyone's mind is, Where is winter in the eastern part of the US? Thanks to the "Super El Nino" (3 month average anomalies >2C) has kept the cold air locked up North. This month will likely go down as one of the least snowy Decembers for the region on record. Now what does this mean as we start heading into the heart of winter?
At this time we do still think on a monthly basis temperatures will still be above average but no where near the averages for December. Its toward the second half of the month when we are anticipating a change to a more active and cooler weather pattern. With the El Nino reaching its peak during the middle of December, we are looking at a quickly fading signal and that is a huge help for snow lovers on the shore. Fading El Nino's provide the potential for more high latitude blocking across Greenland.
A big player on the field that we are watching is the "Polar Vortex" (Stratosphere Vortex). You have heard about that term quite frequently the last few years that delivered extremely cold air to the lower 48. The stratosphere vortex this year has become very strong which is another reason why its been very warm in December as expected. The key player regarding the polar vortex is the something called a SSWE (Sudden Stratosphere Warming Event). A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere slows down or even reverses direction over the course of a few days. The change is accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins.
Current and long range models have been showing the potential for such a warming event that will occur throughout the rest of the month heading into January. ECMWF and GFS models shows the polar vortex getting displaced from the polar regions southward toward North America. These changes in the vortex causes a complete pattern change in the Northern Hemisphere. There is usually a lag of about 7-14 days before we notice the changes. Climatology speaking, the precursors we are seeing now is a good sign of a nice SSW in the works. The effects of this event would begin to show itself after the 15th of January.
We will been keeping a close eye on what goes on with the stratosphere. Very hard at predicting what it will do.

Overall agrees with the discussions on our board.  I do, however, disagree with the highlighted statement.  The El Nino was not the cause of the record warmth, but rather the strong MJO pulses moving through phases 2-5 since early November and the +AO.  

[sroc4]

Man this really has a nice look. Look at that EPO ridge and notice how it try to connect to the ridge on the other side of the Arctic. Can anyone say cross polar flow? It really is coming.

[amugs]

Man this really has a nice look. Look at that EPO ridge and notice how it try to connect to the ridge on the other side of the Arctic. Can anyone say cross polar flow?  It really is coming.

yes great look, went over this with me weather club after school, the good ol' polar bridge that will connect the pna, epo to the scandaVian block. As I have been harping on since August that the AL vortex that killed is in Dec is retrograding sw as can be seen by its location on, southwest of the aluetians. Thus will allow the pna to go positive, epo neg whilst a neg trough bills over the se. Gives us good chances and IF and I think it will happen the AO goes neg by mid month we dance like it's 1999 (prince song??) I know we are all spooks bt Dec and it is easy to say warm and wet but fir crying all night have some brass ones and put out positive juju and let's make a come back like the Americans in the South Pacific in WW2!!!
Back to Bauleys, Cannoli's, Egg Nog and Shrimp.scampi!!

[amugs]

Wait not done, Cohen says we are in full fledged deathcon 5 againstt the pv HOORRAYYYYYYY!!!

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation



We have been discussing the polar vortex model developed here at AER that predicts the strength of the polar vortex one month in advance.  As we discussed in the blog for the past month, the model was predicting the polar vortex to become disturbed the third week of December, which is predicted by the weather models to occur this week.  The polar vortex model also predicts a similar perturbing of the stratospheric polar vortex in the first week of January, which again is now being predicted by the weather models.  And as we have been discussing, the polar vortex model predicts an even bigger event the second week of January.  As we discussed above the predicted atmospheric circulation is nearly optimal for the vertical transfer of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere that results in weakening of the polar vortex.

Bring it on baby!!

Back to my Xmass Chores!

[amugs]

This from Weathergun a very knowledgeable amatuer met and backed up by earthlight about the attack i just posted:

"We aren't going back to square one. From Cohen, there are two more attacks to polar vortex forecast to be coming during the first two weeks of January."

[amugs]

GEFS in the in the LR - evolution taking.

[amugs]

EPS and GFS showing clipper type systems the first week of January. Another good sign!!

[HectorO]

Imagine if this continues through March. We'll be so acclimated to warm weather that if we get hammered next winter, we're going to freeze to death. This week will be the warmest winter I've been in since I left Florida 10 years ago.

[Frank_Wx]

AAM anomalies are forecasted to stay positive over the next 10 days. Not surprising since Cohen's chart shows a couple of +WAF attacks in the next 2 weeks. This has support from the MJO. The GEFS predict the MJO to enter phase 7 which would favors +AAM anomalies and favorable tropical forcing.

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