Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Snow88]

0z Euro shows the trifecta. -NAO, -AO and +PNA.

[amugs]

What ever happened to the threat during the time frame of January 1st to 3rd that sroc4 was interested in?

It is there but off the coast right now - lots of time - bring the cold air and pattern first the we hammer out these details. A STJ and percolation in teh atmosphere things can change on a dime in the upcoming set up storm wise.

GFS

[chief7]

I think you guys will like this https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/27/long-range-winter-is-coming-january-pattern-change-details/

[amugs]

Great write up by Miguel from NY Metro Weather where Earthlight is the head honcho:

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/27/long-range-winter-is-coming-january-pattern-change-details/

An excellent analysis in depth and on the mark to everything Frank, Sroc and meself have been harping on. Change is coming to the area nearest you!!

This an evolution and when we lock in this pattern come mid Jan we will have many opportunities for good to great storms through Feb into early March.

Heck last winter we did not a good storm until late Jan, everything before this was a clipper or front of .5 to 1.5,2 inches. 1977-78 same happened

[amugs]

Chief brilliant minds thinking alike here!!

[amugs]

Longer-range guidance shows more high-latitude blocking developing towards the middle of January, with positive 500mb height anomalies from both aforementioned ridges building over the North Pole, Alaska, and Greenland. This will cause the EPO and/or NAO to fall into the negative phase and the polar vortex at 500mb to drop south into the Hudson Bay. If correct, this pattern will be more conducive to producing more sustained below normal temperatures and significant snowstorms for the Eastern United States.

Models will be playing catch up and will - EPS ENS showing ugly cold in the east come mid Jan timeframe - you watch peeps we turn and Frank and Sroc alluded to the snap back in the atmosphere and it is going to snap.

[chief7]

You got that right brother my hat's off to you to the way you been keeping the ship upright when everybody was busting your stones

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Great write up by Miguel from NY Metro Weather where Earthlight is the head honcho:  

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/27/long-range-winter-is-coming-january-pattern-change-details/

An excellent analysis in depth and on the mark to everything Frank, Sroc and meself have been harping on. Change is coming to the area nearest you!!

This an evolution and when we lock in this pattern come mid Jan we will have many opportunities for good to great storms through Feb into early March.

Heck last winter we did not a good storm until late Jan, everything before this was a clipper or front of .5 to 1.5,2 inches. 1977-78 same happened

But you also have to consider that a December that is by far the warmest in history, and has been as warm as the average April, never happened in those years either. I'm certainly no expert, I'm barely a novice, but that has to weigh into the equation somewhere here.

[skinsfan1177]

Is their any concern with the blocking being to strong and supressing storms or that's probably to early to tell.

[Dunnzoo]

Great write up by Miguel from NY Metro Weather where Earthlight is the head honcho:  

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/27/long-range-winter-is-coming-january-pattern-change-details/

An excellent analysis in depth and on the mark to everything Frank, Sroc and meself have been harping on. Change is coming to the area nearest you!!

This an evolution and when we lock in this pattern come mid Jan we will have many opportunities for good to great storms through Feb into early March.

Heck last winter we did not a good storm until late Jan, everything before this was a clipper or front of .5 to 1.5,2 inches. 1977-78 same happened

I would imagine since the Atlantic waters are still warm it will bring warm air into the mix when we get a coastal...
But you also have to consider that a December that is by far the warmest in history, and has been as warm as the average April, never happened in those years either. I'm certainly no expert, I'm barely a novice, but that has to weigh into the equation somewhere here.

[amugs]

This from a great one Isotherm

Reading some of the bad analysis over the past few weeks, particularly in regards to the stratosphere. It seems many have this "denial" of the ongoing changes, and simply don't want to admit that the pattern is in fact changing. I have, however, noticed many more people coming around to our ideas now that the guidance is essentially undeniable in the D7+ range. It feels good to see these changes evolve as anticipated, in accordance with the research/preparation done beforehand.

Examining the NAO / AO progression for 1958, it appears the AO will be following a similar time scale, and we actually look to be ahead of the NAO in 1958. January 16th-17th was the NAO flip in 1958. It may occur by January 10th this month.

There's a possibility that we enter a pattern which is more conducive than anything we've seen since 2010-11 insofar as larger threats. The real negative NAO signal, almost necessary for the bigger events, has been virtually absent over the past several years. I think the pattern will turn quite active w/ the STJ and high latitude blocking post January 10th. I'm not terribly enthused with snow chances in the first week to 10 days of January, but as we've seen in the past, often times the cold comes first, then the snow. December 2010 took almost the entire month to produce a significant snowfall. However, I don't think it'll take as long here due to the enhancement of the sub tropical jet by the second week of January.

Now that the CFSV2 has officially flipped, there's not much remaining for the wall to wall furnace forecasters to hold onto.
BOOOOOOMMMMMM

[amugs]

[sroc4]

This looks amazing from the EPS/GEFS. Basically a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO

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[docstox12]

All very good news and a big change for the better for January!

[nutleyblizzard]

Latest Nino update. All regions have cooled!                                                                            

Regions 1@2: 2.1 (-0.3)

                                                                                             

Region 3: 2.7 (-0.2)

                                                                                                 

Region 3.4: 2.7 (-0.2)

                                                                                                   

Region 4: 1.6 (-0.1)

[sroc4]

Latest Nino update. All regions have cooled!                                                                            

Regions 1@2: 2.1 (-0.3)

                                                                                             

Region 3: 2.7 (-0.2)

                                                                                                 

Region 3.4: 2.7 (-0.2)

                                                                                                   

Region 4: 1.6 (-0.1)

Holla!

[Snow88]

My friend John ( Some people might know him as Earthlight from the weather forums )

"With the combination of an active STJ, high latitude blocking, a disrupted stratosphere, and support from the PNA and AO -- the potential exists for a historic winter weather period during the time frame from Late January into mid February. It remains to be seen if this will be realized -- as you all know, the initial conditions can often be there, and we can still strike out. But, for that, we will just have to wait and see.

Steady the ship -- the horizon is in view, and approaching fast. "

Look at the AO

[Snow88]

CFS has really cooled off from earlier this month. It shows normal temps now for the area.

[amugs]

Latest Nino update. All regions have cooled!                                                                            

Regions 1@2: 2.1 (-0.3)

                                                                                             

Region 3: 2.7 (-0.2)

                                                                                                 

Region 3.4: 2.7 (-0.2)

                                                                                                   

Region 4: 1.6 (-0.1)

This is a big


It definitely has cooled more since the numbers here taken, remember that chart I showed weeks ago about the cold water just below the surface of the warmth and the depth if that?? That is clasping very nicely east to west.

Let's all give a great big thank you, yes doc I have to say tjis, to the Russians. Why? Not because of the miracle on ice well partly but for the SIBERIAN SNOW PACK!! This along with the trop forcing aylt the dateline flexing it's muscle are going to drive our pattern and I am fricking excited to see what happens from mid Jan through mid march.
Carry on my my wayward friends, any doubters I have a cliff you can step off of now in the Palisades. Nothing but good juju here.

[amugs]

Isotherm and I pmed last night after his post and Frank's and he is of the belief we flip totally mid Jan and lock it in just after that 3rd week. Believes NAO goes neg at that time not the latter. All in agreement with big pattern flip by mid month.

@@Tony, John threw out 2010-11 as a point of fast and furious periods we could see with some big storms, could start to happen as early as 3rd week of Jan.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

After what we endured this December we've earned it. Normal temperatures right now would be wonderful.

[amugs]

Those who ride the CFSv2 long range model like NOAA well look at what it just did



Last to party hahahahahsha!!!
Keep hugging it cause you will finally join the party.

Dam many signals aligning, as earthlight said this could go into the books as a top 2nd half of winters. Possibility exists.l and that is all we can ask for at this point l

[chief7]

Quick question who looks to benefit from the patterns switch the most the south the Mid Atlantic or the Northeast?

[amugs]

Hot off thE presses FROM THE BELL EURO ENS is a ahead of schedule - WOWZA PEEPS!!





WOO HOOOOO !!!

[nutleyblizzard]

Mugs I was just looking at the latest Euro ensembles myself. We have to keep an eye out for the potential of this pattern flip happening sooner than expected. Very encouraging indeed. Frank any thoughts???

[Frank_Wx]

Mugs I was just looking at the latest Euro ensembles myself. We have to keep an eye out for the potential of this pattern flip happening sooner than expected. Very encouraging indeed. Frank any thoughts???

Yes. I think the blocking showing up in the long range is very impressive. The -EPO is shown to go poleward and the AO is crashing negative thanks to the anomalous ridge from Siberia/Russia. The NAO is trending negative too, but the location or core of the positive heights stem from the Russian ridge. IMO, a true negative NAO arises when the core of the positive heights extend from the Baffin Bay to Greenland and the northern Atlantic. If you look at the image below from the EPS, that signal is pretty weak. Like Scott mentioned the other day, we don't NEED the -NAO to see snowstorms. The -EPO/-AO is plentiful. But when you have a strong El Nino and strong Strat PV, it certainly would help.

My blog gave you my outline to the pattern change. I mentioned the -NAO (the type I just talked about not the one showing up on long range models) could come by week 4 of January which is why I said "full throttle." That would likely guarantee a Godzilla. However, if the PV splits at 10hPa we'll see the NAO go negative much sooner.

A great pattern change will occur in mid-January, one that will deliver cold and multiple snow threats. A full fledged pattern change involving the NAO and QBO could come late January to early February. That's what I was trying to get at in my blog last night

[chief7]

Hopefully the Nao is West base

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