Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[Frank_Wx]

Mugs I was just looking at the latest Euro ensembles myself. We have to keep an eye out for the potential of this pattern flip happening sooner than expected. Very encouraging indeed. Frank any thoughts???

Yes. I think the blocking showing up in the long range is very impressive. The -EPO is shown to go poleward and the AO is crashing negative thanks to the anomalous ridge from Siberia/Russia. The NAO is trending negative too, but the location or core of the positive heights stem from the Russian ridge. IMO, a true negative NAO arises when the core of the positive heights extend from the Baffin Bay to Greenland and the northern Atlantic. If you look at the image below from the EPS, that signal is pretty weak. Like Scott mentioned the other day, we don't NEED the -NAO to see snowstorms. The -EPO/-AO is plentiful. But when you have a strong El Nino and strong Strat PV, it certainly would help.

My blog gave you my outline to the pattern change. I mentioned the -NAO (the type I just talked about not the one showing up on long range models) could come by week 4 of January which is why I said "full throttle." That would likely guarantee a Godzilla. However, if the PV splits at 10hPa we'll see the NAO go negative much sooner.

A great pattern change will occur in mid-January, one that will deliver cold and multiple snow threats. A full fledged pattern change involving the NAO and QBO could come late January to early February. That's what I was trying to get at in my blog last night

[chief7]

Hopefully the Nao is West base

[Frank_Wx]

GFS OP showing 10hPa SPLIT in the long range. If true, GAME ON by week 3 of January.

[amugs]

Frank,
Isotherm is telling me he thinks mid month we split at all levels, an unprecedented turnaboit. The models are not properly digesting the latent heat release in Siberia. We'll see. As I have harps on ad nasuea hee and usa site that I learned from a couole.of pro mets that models lag the actually goings on in the atmosphere when we have so many dynamics at play. jus food for thought. I am enthralled at what I am witnessing on the models and I am going to sit back and just fn smile as it all comes to fruition. Months of digesting so much info like an architect seeing his cathedral finish being built is my analogy here for what is to come and how I will feel.

[amugs]

Earthlight pounding the war drum here

The new Euro weeklies are decidedly and abruptly colder past the first week of January...much below normal heights at 500mb with blocking and above normal heights throughout all of the higher latitudes. Ridging in the PNA/EPO regions and a very notably negative AO. They also are showing the same storm signal as the GEFS and ECM Ens around 1/8-1/10 with another chance around 1/12-1/13.

FCrank said this - we might be making anew analog with this winter and as bad as it was warmth we might just snap back inmto the other realm for the last 6 - 8 weeks peeps.

+WPO, -EPO,+PNA, -AO, - NAO, BASIN WIDE HISTORIC NINO WITH A ttrop forcing near dateline, STRONG STJ - ANYTHING ELSE?? you may not see this again for two or three decades- last time we had 4 out of the indicator - 2009-10 and 1978 February.

WOW!!

GEFS

Could be talking KU if not MOKU - Monsgter KU's - hahahaha

[NjWeatherGuy]

GFS showing some storms in the LR in the east coast, some OTS some warm with no cold air around because it phases too late but details are not important atm. The good thing is that we're seeing storm signals appear to track to our south and not cut meaning the ridge is receding and being replaced by the trough. The pattern change is occuring and its beginning with this storm with a big HP in Canada blocking the storm from cutting into Canada. We're seeing the effects of strong cold air damming but of course it got overridden eventually in the lower elevations by an easterly fetch from a far west primary and very anomalously warm SSTs. These however may pump up some big storms and work in our favor if we get a cold airmass in place with some nice moisture flow of the warm ocean, we could be in store for a big one. Be patient everyone and congrats folks up north who scored with this one eve though most of us saw at least our first wintry precip of the season.

[skinsfan1177]

What temperatures are we Looking at when the pattern changes the highs and lows?

[amugs]

I am sorry but the gfs is fn out to lunch in the op. ThIat model needs a major upgrade, doesn't even relate to its own ens for crying all night. Look at the new Euro Para that JB posted this is going to kick the gfs but up and down the east coast imho. Locks in around Jan 9 this and we don't look back for AWHILE!!


storm signal showing for thus time frame as well

[amugs]

I am sorry but the gfs is fn out to lunch in the op. ThIat model needs a major upgrade, doesn't even relate to its own ens for crying all night. Look at the new Euro Para that JB posted this is going to kick the gfs but up and down the east coast imho. Locks in around Jan 9 this and we don't look back for AWHILE!!


storm signal showing for thus time frame as well

PS huge N epo, Pos pna with their couplet friends N AO AND NAO with a side of STJ in thisnmap. Saying it all along the models will play catch up to these massive dynamics in our atmsophere and show us better and beer things to come for our LR.
JB thinks we lock in around the 8,9th and ride this puppy through late Feb.

[snow247]

Crazy to see so many professionals absolutely loving the the way it's looking in time period coming up. Exciting.

[jmanley32]

Looks like the 240 hr mark hass a coastal on all 3 major models but whats the issue? Its too warm!! I am soooo hoping the temps are cold enough and system close enough to give a good one.

[amugs]

JB video,blog us sick calling for a major snowstorm possibly blizzard in the 8th to 14th time frame from TX through Maine, saying we don't look back until Late Feb.

Hype I know but the guy is good so let's just say our first significant snowstorm in the works

[Snow88]

Updated AO. It keeps on falling. WOW.

[WOLVES1]

Does anybody know how this pattern change will effect England?

[dkodgis]

JB is a great guy. Though I went to a different high school, his and mine were fierce competitors in sports. I met him a few times at a friend's house back in the day. I would say he sold me lock, stock, and barrel when he predicted the last couple of very cold winters. Plus, how can you not like an analog guy like JB? Old school all the way.

[Snow88]

-NAO on the euro starting next week

[amugs]

NAO SAYS WHAT A COTTON PICKIN MINUTE I WANT TO JOIN U THREE!!



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[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Should this pattern change and the teleconnections come in line as much as everyone thinks, combined with the warmest ocean temperatures we have ever had this time of year this could be the ingredients for some explosive east coast storms.

We shall see.

[nutleyblizzard]

As I just mentioned on another board, this upcoming pattern which I like to call the "dream pattern setup" where all the indices line up in our favor, just doesn't happen very often. IT SCREAMS HECS and I think we will ultimately see one before all is said and done. But weather is unpredictable, and if the pattern does not produce such a storm it would be a bitter disappointment.

[amugs]

NUTS,
You got that right but it will produce.

Off wsi tweet Mike Ventricle MADDDONNEEEE THE 2
WARM MONGER

[algae888]

The next 10 days or so we have very little chance of seeing any snow as the pattern will be transitioning. After that my big concern is suppression. If you look at the end of today's 12z GFS run the 0 degrees Celsius line is in northern Florida. Many of the ensembles  show a similar outcome. Just because the models are showing the perfect pattern doesn't necessarily mean we snow here. As I lived through many winters with very little snow here, timing is always of the utmost importance. Whether a crappy pattern or a good pattern that's what's going to make the difference. Sadly no one can predict timing more than a few days out

[algae888]

Can anyone explain to me why -10c 850's are showing 2 meter temperature splits at 42 / 30 for New York City. I would assume it would be much colder than that?

[chief7]

888 I brought up that same question yesterday who looks to benefit the most out of this upcoming pattern change the south East the mid-atlantic or the Northeast

[algae888]

I would think our best chance at seeing a significant or historic snow event would be sometime in early February when this new pattern starts to relax as the indices move from very low levels more towards neutral or even positive. At the levels they are forecast to go I would expect cold and dry with maybe a few Clippers systems moving in giving us light snowfall events

[algae888]

888 I brought up that same question yesterday who looks to benefit the most out of this upcoming pattern change the south East the mid-atlantic or the Northeast

I would think New England has the best chance early on as the pattern transitions and then when once locked in the southern mid-atlantic would have the best chance until this pattern relaxes. I think February is going to be our best chance for snow and maybe a few big ones at that

[weatherwatchermom]

hey silly question..when you guys talk about JB are you talking about Joe Bastardi?

[algae888]

The upcoming pattern will have a chance to produce a miller B something like June of last year but I think in February will see more Miller a that start in the gulf and come up the coast. We still have to see how this pattern plays out but it looks like it will happen as there is a unanimous consensus on all model ensembles guidance

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