Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[NjWeatherGuy]

18z GFS showing a clipper which bombs out at the coast ala 2005. Would love to see this but still in garbage time... 288 hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151223+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[Abba701]

Saw Lee Goldberg last night.He said first two weeks of January will be like December.

he said tonight that he thinks the pattern wants to change.its very weird how the record for today could fall around midnight.We could have records 4 out of the next 5 days.

[amugs]

Saw Lee Goldberg last night.He said first two weeks of January will be like December.

Sorry but don't but it. He maybe drinking the noaa cool aid unless he has maps we don't have access to.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Im beginning to think we see the pattern change begin after this storm. Things slowly begin changing and cold pushes further south and we develop a trough in the east in the 1st week of January with potential storm chances. Also a potential progressive mild period afterward and a likely longer period of sustained cold and storm chances mid-January onward as the parameters grow more favorable.

[aiannone]

0z CMC

[snow247]

0z GFS looks unimpressive, about the same as 18z

But I am reading the GGEM is a big hit.

[Snow88]

Wow GGEM is a big hit in regards to next weeks storm. NYC is below freezing at 132 hours but mostly sleet. big interior hit.

[amugs]

0z GFS looks unimpressive, about the same as 18z

But I am reading the GGEM is a big hit.

0z



18Z



looks like cold presses a bit more south on this run at this time frame

0z trop tidbit





decent front end dump

merry xmas eve eve

[amugs]

GFS ENS way south - wooo hooo





Can we get 2" in Dec and then above avg as per Math stats for the winter as December goes stats??

[NjWeatherGuy]

We'd need a 1040+ hp system sitting right over southeast Canada north of lake Erie like the CMC showed to block this thing from coming north and forcing a transfer to the coast. Its possible but not probable imo, everything would need to fall into place perfectly and these storms tend to get messy. AKA the one in February last year I believe.

[NjWeatherGuy]

No Feb 4-5 2014 I think it was.

[Snow88]

GEFS has nice ridging in the long range

[Frank_Wx]

There's definitely more ridging showing up in NW US and western Canada by January 1st. This will bleed colder air into our area. A trend I do not like is where the models are placing the PV. They're putting it over Greenland and orienting the low height anomalies toward the UK. Luckily, from a climatology standpoint, our air mass will still be cold enough to support wintry weather as long as there's cyclogenesis off the coast. Either way, normal to slightly below normal temps will take over in 2016 with better chances of seeing wintry weather

[algae888]

Good morning and happy Christmas Eve to all the 12z gfs so far has snow as far south as DC at hour 114 and snowing here at hour 120. The low pressure is further east than last night's runs and moving in sync with that high pressure. I know it's not the greatest set up and we need perfect timing but with a high that strong I think we have a very good shot probably at 60% of seeing some snow with this system for many areas and higher than that north and west Frank are we going to start a thread inside of 5 days now

[amugs]

GooFuS FTW!!!!

[algae888]

Wow the 850 0 Celsius line really crashes all the way down to Virginia. The tropical tidbits site show 6 plus inches for a large portion of our area mainly New York City north and west and northneast. I know some of that is sleet but the system is getting colder by the day.

[amugs]

Front 2-4" thump NNJ and more LHV, showing high not escaping at as fast. Threading the needle big time here. 18Z poops the bed my call then brings it back at 0z and 6z and we all go this

[algae888]

Mugs if you looked at most ensembles from the last 24 hours there are many many members that show this system colder than the operationals. My feeling is when you have a warm front moving into a strong high pressure we usually snow.

[amugs]

WHITE GOLD BABY!!! MY XMASS WISH, 3 DAYS LATER HAHAHA

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

There's definitely more ridging showing up in NW US and western Canada by January 1st. This will bleed colder air into our area. A trend I do not like is where the models are placing the PV. They're putting it over Greenland and orienting the low height anomalies toward the UK. Luckily, from a climatology standpoint, our air mass will still be cold enough to support wintry weather as long as there's cyclogenesis off the coast. Either way, normal to slightly below normal temps will take over in 2016 with better chances of seeing wintry weather    

The old normal or the new normal?

Average highs for January in our area are 34 in the HV and NWJ and about 38 in NYC. Normal lows are teens in the HV and NWJ and mid 20's in NYC.

Our local mets seem to think average is now 45-50.

Maybe for this year they're right.

[amugs]

Al,
After a night if my homemade Baileys I watched th e0z runs and holy poop the ens maps I posted last night where 100 miles south if the op with the r/s line great trend and I was like WOW!! Ens still barking with thus and like u said trending colder. Need a couple more runs here for it to stay and not trend the other way.

[amugs]

ALL HAIL CANADA!!!!









People with poop if we get the cmc ti verify 6" plus crazy but beautiful! !!!

[jmanley32]

mugs there a thread for this babay! : )

[jmanley32]

ALL HAIL CANADA!!!!









People with poop if we get the cmc ti verify 6" plus crazy but beautiful! !!!

Jesus if that blue line can stay south bit longer to sync with that blue precip in NYC area we looking at 6 inch event maybe more tri-state area, wow, ill take it don't care if its a few days after xmas lets get this winter started!

[amugs]

No jman not yet give it a few more runs I say. Need ens runs and a op with euro and ukie to see what it is. Something to actually track but we need that HP not to slide east or the sst or pop a few hours earlier so it runs into the HP and cold air, we'll see.

[Frank_Wx]

Al - I started a thread considering we're within the 5 day window.

[amugs]

Well Austin Powers MJO - Yeahh&h BABY!!

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