Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[weatherwatchermom]

hey silly question..when you guys talk about JB are you talking about Joe Bastardi?

[algae888]

The upcoming pattern will have a chance to produce a miller B something like June of last year but I think in February will see more Miller a that start in the gulf and come up the coast. We still have to see how this pattern plays out but it looks like it will happen as there is a unanimous consensus on all model ensembles guidance

[skinsfan1177]

The next 10 days or so we have very little chance of seeing any snow as the pattern will be transitioning. After that my big concern is suppression. If you look at the end of today's 12z GFS run the 0 degrees Celsius line is in northern Florida. Many of the ensembles  show a similar outcome. Just because the models are showing the perfect pattern doesn't necessarily mean we snow here. As I lived through many winters with very little snow here, timing is always of the utmost importance. Whether a crappy pattern or a good pattern that's what's going to make the difference. Sadly no one can predict timing more than a few days out

This was a question I asked a day or two ago? I hope not

[skinsfan1177]

hey silly question..when you guys talk about JB are you talking about Joe Bastardi?

I believe so

[nutleyblizzard]

Hey Snow 88 we both post over at American wx. Any idea what's going on over there? Looks like the server stopped working.

[sroc4]

hey silly question..when you guys talk about JB are you talking about Joe Bastardi?

Yes JB refers to Joe Bastardi.

[algae888]

7-10 ensemble mean. looks like current pattern. at least the ridge over the n/e...

[algae888]

well it looks like the first 7 -10 days of jan end up about +5. what"s really surprising is that this is with a n/nw flow and -10c 850's for four of these days. is there any cold air on our earth?

[Dtone]

Temps to rise to around freezing at North Pole, arctic heat wave.
but will it tip things in our favor?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/28/freak-storm-in-north-atlantic-may-push-temperatures-70-degrees-above-normal-at-north-pole/

[Frank_Wx]

Someone verify if this post made on another board is correct. We have great historians here who could probably do this quick:


Hate to do this, but here it is:

Since 1900 (115 years), there have been 17 winters with .1" or less in NYC for the month of December.

Dec. Snowfall:/Entire Winter Snowfall

1900-1901: .1"/9.1"
1931-1932: .1"/5.3"
1936-1937: T/15.6"
1943-1944: T/23.8"
1953-1954: T/15.8"
1954-1955: .1"/11.5"
1965-1966: T/21.4"
1971-1972: T/22.9"
1972-1973: T/2.8"
1974-1975: .1"/13.1"
1994-1995: T/11.8"
1996-1997: T/10.0"
1997-1998: T/5.5"
1999-2000: T/16.3"
2001-2002: T/3.5"
2006-2007: 0/12.4"
2011-2012: 0/7.4"
2015-2016: T/???


Total: 208.2"
Average: 12.2"

[weatherwatchermom]

hey silly question..when you guys talk about JB are you talking about Joe Bastardi?

Yes JB refers to Joe Bastardi.

Thank you..watched him today on WSJ Lunchbreak
JB gave a report today:

http://www.wsj.com/video/extreme-weather-forecast-for-2016/9F232FDD-B94D-4345-9053-C2A44E3D794B.html

[weatherwatchermom]

hey silly question..when you guys talk about JB are you talking about Joe Bastardi?

I believe so

thanks....watched his take on upcoming winter changes:

http://www.wsj.com/video/extreme-weather-forecast-for-2016/9F232FDD-B94D-4345-9053-C2A44E3D794B.html

[sroc4]

The next 10 days or so we have very little chance of seeing any snow as the pattern will be transitioning. After that my big concern is suppression. If you look at the end of today's 12z GFS run the 0 degrees Celsius line is in northern Florida. Many of the ensembles  show a similar outcome. Just because the models are showing the perfect pattern doesn't necessarily mean we snow here. As I lived through many winters with very little snow here, timing is always of the utmost importance. Whether a crappy pattern or a good pattern that's what's going to make the difference. Sadly no one can predict timing more than a few days out

You may be right about suppression Al but I certainly would not look at the LR GFS to tell you if that's going to happen.  With an active STJ and the potential for a neg NAO suppression may not be the case at all.  In years past the lack of the -NAO has led to the energy in the southern stream to escape OTS before the northern stream s/w could dig into the south and phase the two streams.  Timing had to be perfect because if the southern energy was out ahead of the N energy at all there was nothing to slow it down to allow the phase.  Instead we would get cold fronts that would push through as the N energy moved east, and stall just to our south.  Weak waves of LP developed along the fronts and rode along them and overrunning events that were enhanced by the strong baroclinic zones occured. Juno last ear was a result of perfect timing between the N and southern branch but ultimately the progressiveness of the pattern (lack of a neg NAO) kept it too far east for main impacts.  If the PV sank too far south and or East these fronts would sag too far south and the energy could pass well to our south leading to cold and dry.  That def happened in the past two years at times.  However, In this type of pattern with an active STJ you get a strong southern disturbance that is less likely to just shoot OTS because its not a progressive pattern, but one that turns the jets more south to north instead of sw to NE or even W to E.  this allows more time for the northern stream s/w to catch up and phase.  Not saying its going to happen but timing becomes much less of an issue with that type of blocking set up.  

Now remember this.  Sometimes you need the cold before you get the snow.  

EPS Day 6 500mb anomalies:  Notice the western Can ridge is drifting east centered over central Canada.

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This promotes a Canadian HP to drop into the central plains and cold air into the NE.  This is the EPS MSLP(Mean Surface Low Pressure) anomaly map:

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By Day 8 the 500mb Ridge continues to drift east and the surface HP is on the move east because the pattern is not quite there yet:  But notice how there is already another 500mb ridge, and Canadian surface HP building in NW Canada as the first ridge and surface HP moving off the NE coast.  In addition we are starting to see signs of a -NAO.  

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For me I see the potential by day 10 for a threat for possible snow.  Its a long way off but verbatim on the EPS the potential is there.  

Day 10 at 500mb we have a strong ridge well up into NW Can and Alaska and is beginning to truly bridge over top the artic.  Heights are raised into the NAO region as well.  It appears we have pieces of energy breaking off the energy in the SW compliments of the STJ.  Another strong HP dropping into the plains; along with it an injection of true arctic air.  It also promotes a HP to the NE of New England that could serve as a block to any energy coming out of the STJ.  

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MSLP Anomaly:
" />

Forget about it if the 15day works out.  This is almost perfect.  This would be a phased northern and southern branch with a cross polar flow.  Any energy that comes out of the STJ phases, trough goes negantive, and LP turns up the coast.  
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[skinsfan1177]

7-10 ensemble mean. looks like current pattern. at least the ridge over the n/e...

Isn't this bad news as far as pattern flipping

[sroc4]

7-10 ensemble mean. looks like current pattern. at least the ridge over the n/e...

HUGE difference compared to current pattern Al.  Look at the red over the arctic.  That tells you that the ridge you see in the NE is transient.  Not going to last,maybe 24-36hrs. Will likely trend colder over time because another cold Canadian HP is set to drop into the conus right after.  I explain it in a little more detail in my post above.

[sroc4]

Current pattern:

[img][/img]

Day 10 Pattern:

[img][/img]

[Frank_Wx]

7-10 ensemble mean. looks like current pattern. at least the ridge over the n/e...

HUGE difference compared to current pattern Al.  Look at the red over the arctic.  That tells you that the ridge you see in the NE is transient.  Not going to last,maybe 24-36hrs.  Will likely trend colder over time because another cold Canadian HP is set to drop into the conus right after.  I explain it in a little more detail in my post above.

This is not a shock if you read my latest Mo Mo, where I posted this image showing exactly what the Ensembles are showing.



There is a strong upper level energy breaking off the Siberian PV and working it's way into the SW CONUS to bring about a -PNA. As noted in the blog, this is part of the pattern transition. The -EPO/-AO is establishing itself over Canada and the Arctic. The Aleutian trough won't become better defined or organized until the EPO ridge retrogrades more into Alaska. This is where we need the Stratosphere to come in. If there's a Strat PV split, the Siberian vortex should break down or turn into an anomalous Aleutian trough. Thus, the first 10-12 days of January should average out to nornal. There will be some cold and mild days.

I still expect a pattern change to colder than normal weather to occur between January 12th and 15th, with a full scale pattern change involving the Stratosphere around January 20th-24th.

What I'm seeing in the LR is to be expected. No surprises.

P.S. - post was more directed to Al. Scott sees the pattern well.

[sroc4]

Someone verify if this post made on another board is correct. We have great historians here who could probably do this quick:


Hate to do this, but here it is:

Since 1900 (115 years), there have been 17 winters with .1" or less in NYC for the month of December.
                   
                   Dec. Snowfall:/Entire Winter Snowfall

1900-1901:  .1"/9.1"
1931-1932: .1"/5.3"
1936-1937: T/15.6"
1943-1944: T/23.8"
1953-1954: T/15.8"
1954-1955: .1"/11.5"
1965-1966: T/21.4"
1971-1972: T/22.9"
1972-1973: T/2.8"
1974-1975: .1"/13.1"
1994-1995: T/11.8"
1996-1997: T/10.0"
1997-1998: T/5.5"
1999-2000: T/16.3"
2001-2002: T/3.5"
2006-2007: 0/12.4"
2011-2012: 0/7.4"
2015-2016: T/???


Total: 208.2"
Average: 12.2"

True story Frank: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[Frank_Wx]

Someone verify if this post made on another board is correct. We have great historians here who could probably do this quick:


Hate to do this, but here it is:

Since 1900 (115 years), there have been 17 winters with .1" or less in NYC for the month of December.
                   
                   Dec. Snowfall:/Entire Winter Snowfall

1900-1901:  .1"/9.1"
1931-1932: .1"/5.3"
1936-1937: T/15.6"
1943-1944: T/23.8"
1953-1954: T/15.8"
1954-1955: .1"/11.5"
1965-1966: T/21.4"
1971-1972: T/22.9"
1972-1973: T/2.8"
1974-1975: .1"/13.1"
1994-1995: T/11.8"
1996-1997: T/10.0"
1997-1998: T/5.5"
1999-2000: T/16.3"
2001-2002: T/3.5"
2006-2007: 0/12.4"
2011-2012: 0/7.4"
2015-2016: T/???


Total: 208.2"
Average: 12.2"

True story Frank:   http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Well I'm pretty much guaranteeing we see more than 24 inches of snow in CPK. These type of things are meant to be broken.

[sroc4]

Someone verify if this post made on another board is correct. We have great historians here who could probably do this quick:


Hate to do this, but here it is:

Since 1900 (115 years), there have been 17 winters with .1" or less in NYC for the month of December.
                   
                   Dec. Snowfall:/Entire Winter Snowfall

1900-1901:  .1"/9.1"
1931-1932: .1"/5.3"
1936-1937: T/15.6"
1943-1944: T/23.8"
1953-1954: T/15.8"
1954-1955: .1"/11.5"
1965-1966: T/21.4"
1971-1972: T/22.9"
1972-1973: T/2.8"
1974-1975: .1"/13.1"
1994-1995: T/11.8"
1996-1997: T/10.0"
1997-1998: T/5.5"
1999-2000: T/16.3"
2001-2002: T/3.5"
2006-2007: 0/12.4"
2011-2012: 0/7.4"
2015-2016: T/???


Total: 208.2"
Average: 12.2"

True story Frank:   http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Well I'm pretty much guaranteeing we see more than 24 inches of snow in CPK. These type of things are meant to be broken.

Couldn't agree more. Maybe in one storm.

[amugs]

Good discussion, Al the pattern change is coming Euro Para is going to school the model means. There will be chances for storms - the AL Low slides SSW of the Aleutians and that will help pump the ridge on the West coast opening up the STJ to travel in a ENE direction across the southernmost tier of America. -AO sitting in Hudson Bay not in the GL if so we need a lot of chap stick and Vaseline but that doesn't look to happen. Lets get the cold air first and then we get the storms and Mr.Cohen should help with his latest write up:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[skinsfan1177]

Good discussion, Al the pattern change is coming Euro Para is going to school the model means. There will be chances for storms - the AL Low slides SSW of the Aleutians and that will help pump the ridge on the West coast opening up the STJ to travel in a ENE direction across the southernmost tier of America. -AO sitting in Hudson Bay not in the GL if so we need a lot of chap stick and Vaseline but that doesn't look to happen. Lets get the cold air first and then we get the storms and Mr.Cohen should help with his latest write up:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Amugs when do think in your opinion we see the white gold?

[Mathgod55]

I am certainly not in the same league as many of you are here, however, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to conclude that if the temp at the North Pole will be 32 degrees F tomorrow night then a pattern change is well underway! Lets all enjoy the next 8 weeks. It promises to be quite a ride!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Someone verify if this post made on another board is correct. We have great historians here who could probably do this quick:


Hate to do this, but here it is:

Since 1900 (115 years), there have been 17 winters with .1" or less in NYC for the month of December.
                   
                   Dec. Snowfall:/Entire Winter Snowfall

1900-1901:  .1"/9.1"
1931-1932: .1"/5.3"
1936-1937: T/15.6"
1943-1944: T/23.8"
1953-1954: T/15.8"
1954-1955: .1"/11.5"
1965-1966: T/21.4"
1971-1972: T/22.9"
1972-1973: T/2.8"
1974-1975: .1"/13.1"
1994-1995: T/11.8"
1996-1997: T/10.0"
1997-1998: T/5.5"
1999-2000: T/16.3"
2001-2002: T/3.5"
2006-2007: 0/12.4"
2011-2012: 0/7.4"
2015-2016: T/???


Total: 208.2"
Average: 12.2"

True story Frank:   http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Well I'm pretty much guaranteeing we see more than 24 inches of snow in CPK. These type of things are meant to be broken.

Couldn't agree more.  Maybe in one storm.  

It is correct. I believe I posted something similar to this if not exactly this during the winter of 2011/12.

This isn't the same as the December prognosticator but it's a bad omen nonetheless. Streaks are made to be broken however, and we certainly shattered the December prognosticators streak last year.

[chief7]

Another plus for the cold air that is coming, natural gas for February delivery is up 37% in the last 8 days in heavy trading in a time of year when we don't really see heavy trading a quote from another board

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Another plus for the cold air that is coming, natural gas for February delivery is up 37% in the last 8 days in heavy trading in a time of year when we don't really see heavy trading a quote from another board

Hey Docstox!!!!

How about a warning next time. I could have joined you in retirement.

[Frank_Wx]

7-10 ensemble mean. looks like current pattern. at least the ridge over the n/e...

HUGE difference compared to current pattern Al.  Look at the red over the arctic.  That tells you that the ridge you see in the NE is transient.  Not going to last,maybe 24-36hrs.  Will likely trend colder over time because another cold Canadian HP is set to drop into the conus right after.  I explain it in a little more detail in my post above.

This is not a shock if you read my latest Mo Mo, where I posted this image showing exactly what the Ensembles are showing.



There is a strong upper level energy breaking off the Siberian PV and working it's way into the SW CONUS to bring about a -PNA. As noted in the blog, this is part of the pattern transition. The -EPO/-AO is establishing itself over Canada and the Arctic. The Aleutian trough won't become better defined or organized until the EPO ridge retrogrades more into Alaska. This is where we need the Stratosphere to come in. If there's a Strat PV split, the Siberian vortex should break down or turn into an anomalous Aleutian trough. Thus, the first 10-12 days of January should average out to nornal. There will be some cold and mild days.

I still expect a pattern change to colder than normal weather to occur between January 12th and 15th, with a full scale pattern change involving the Stratosphere around January 20th-24th.

What I'm seeing in the LR is to be expected. No surprises.

P.S. - post was more directed to Al. Scott sees the pattern well.

To build off this post, look what the ECM Ensembles do in the long range. Almost exactly what I said. The Siberian Vortex turns into an organized and we'll defined Aleutian trough. You're not see a -PNA in this time frame. TEXTBOOK AND GORGEOUS

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