Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Another plus for the cold air that is coming, natural gas for February delivery is up 37% in the last 8 days in heavy trading in a time of year when we don't really see heavy trading a quote from another board

Hey Docstox!!!!

How about a warning next time. I could have joined you in retirement.

[Frank_Wx]

7-10 ensemble mean. looks like current pattern. at least the ridge over the n/e...

HUGE difference compared to current pattern Al.  Look at the red over the arctic.  That tells you that the ridge you see in the NE is transient.  Not going to last,maybe 24-36hrs.  Will likely trend colder over time because another cold Canadian HP is set to drop into the conus right after.  I explain it in a little more detail in my post above.

This is not a shock if you read my latest Mo Mo, where I posted this image showing exactly what the Ensembles are showing.



There is a strong upper level energy breaking off the Siberian PV and working it's way into the SW CONUS to bring about a -PNA. As noted in the blog, this is part of the pattern transition. The -EPO/-AO is establishing itself over Canada and the Arctic. The Aleutian trough won't become better defined or organized until the EPO ridge retrogrades more into Alaska. This is where we need the Stratosphere to come in. If there's a Strat PV split, the Siberian vortex should break down or turn into an anomalous Aleutian trough. Thus, the first 10-12 days of January should average out to nornal. There will be some cold and mild days.

I still expect a pattern change to colder than normal weather to occur between January 12th and 15th, with a full scale pattern change involving the Stratosphere around January 20th-24th.

What I'm seeing in the LR is to be expected. No surprises.

P.S. - post was more directed to Al. Scott sees the pattern well.

To build off this post, look what the ECM Ensembles do in the long range. Almost exactly what I said. The Siberian Vortex turns into an organized and we'll defined Aleutian trough. You're not see a -PNA in this time frame. TEXTBOOK AND GORGEOUS

[amugs]

Good discussion, Al the pattern change is coming Euro Para is going to school the model means. There will be chances for storms - the AL Low slides SSW of the Aleutians and that will help pump the ridge on the West coast opening up the STJ to travel in a ENE direction across the southernmost tier of America. -AO sitting in Hudson Bay not in the GL if so we need a lot of chap stick and Vaseline but that doesn't look to happen. Lets get the cold air first and then we get the storms and Mr.Cohen should help with his latest write up:

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Amugs when do think in your opinion we see the white gold?

Skins,

I am thinking around the 8thish of Jan. May see a clipper slide through or we can get a very organized and significant storm according to the Euro Para Ens run. May be two during the time frame from the 8th to 14th. Models will not pick up on this storm until the medium range with the dynamics at work. From what I have read the models have issues picking this up in LR whi ch is fine by me.
Frank that is just a gorgeous map u posted. Stormd galore as the stj slides under the ridge, this is what I have been HARPING on since August when the euro ens monthlys came out

[amugs]

GEFS playing catch up

[amugs]

Excellent write up by earthlight

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/29/warmth-on-borrowed-time-as-january-pa/

[Snow88]

0z GFS is cold and stormy after the 10th

[NjWeatherGuy]

Theres been a storm around the 11th on the GFS for awhile. Fantasy range? Sorta. But something to track... At least for the moment which has me happy but the way this season has gone itll turn into a GLC or a Bermuda storm by 2 days from now...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_288_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151230+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[devsman]

Theres been a storm around the 11th on the GFS for awhile. Fantasy range? Sorta. But something to track... At least for the moment which has me happy but the way this season has gone itll turn into a GLC or a Bermuda storm by 2 days from now...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_288_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151230+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Everytime I see a post like this, I look for Jmans name. Doesn't seem right when he's not the one to post the long range threats, lol

[NjWeatherGuy]

I dont take them seriously. Just like to see the signal because 9/10 times when theres consistently a storm popping up there when the time comes there will be a storm somewhere, could it be 1000mi off? Yes.

[NjWeatherGuy]

CMC has a similar look to GFS at 240.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=240

[NjWeatherGuy]

It could be one of those March 4, 2015 storms if it plays out perfectly, rain to heavy snow. Wishful thinking there and of course very far out.

[NjWeatherGuy]

06z GFS inching this storm closer to land and colder, CMC was warm.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=219&image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_219_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151230+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[jmanley32]

Hey! I heard that, nah I learned its not worth posting LR threats unless they are really exciting but even then so many times they have not played out and it has just been a waste of my time. So devs and NJ, you probably won't see me posting much PR stuff but yes I have seen this threat but want to wait till its at least less than a week away b4 I get hyped.

[jmanley32]

I dont take them seriously. Just like to see the signal because 9/10 times when theres consistently a storm popping up there when the time comes there will be a storm somewhere, could it be 1000mi off? Yes.

Or it could be 1000 miles wide snowstorm like sandy was size wise, then you wouldn't be off at all.

[amugs]

Hey skins what did I said yesterday when you asked when the first snowfall would be?? Jan 8ish. Looking pretty good as per the 0Z and 6Z runs. Still lots of time but as one can see teh ST]J is going to open up due to the Ridge relaxing on the EC (moving up and out) and the PNA going Positive along with the EPO going Neg (PAC block)

[skinsfan1177]

Hey skins what did I said yesterday when you asked when the first snowfall would be?? Jan 8ish. Looking pretty good as per the 0Z and 6Z runs. Still lots of time but as one can see teh ST]J is going to open up due to the Ridge relaxing on the EC (moving up and out) and the PNA going Positive along with the EPO going Neg (PAC block)

I hope so Amugs your right on. Couple questions do we know as far as how cold will get and in LR Are a lot of storms popping up?

[amugs]

Hey skins what did I said yesterday when you asked when the first snowfall would be?? Jan 8ish. Looking pretty good as per the 0Z and 6Z runs. Still lots of time but as one can see teh ST]J is going to open up due to the Ridge relaxing on the EC (moving up and out) and the PNA going Positive along with the EPO going Neg (PAC block)

A lot is 6 for Jman and 3 for Dunzoo, so it is all relative. Once we stables the pattern after a long pm with my ex students who are pro mets and Isotherm, if things set up properly then we could see a 30 to 50 day period of winter that may rival 201-11 and 2009-10. But as we get closer to the pattern change by the 10th ish I believe we see storms starting to pop and it will happen when the epo and pna set ip the pac block.

I hope so Amugs your right on. Couple questions do we know as far as how cold will get and in LR Are a lot of storms popping up?

[algae888]

A good thing i am seeing on the models is storms starting to hit Southern California. There seems to be a parade of them on the GFS and cmc. Once we get the blocking one of these are going to come due East and then up the coast. Also early next week models are trending colder maybe we would stay below freezing for highs on Tuesday? anyway these last two winters are really testing our patience.

[algae888]

Well the euro is on board with plenty of storms hitting Southern California. Plus it looks like that warm up after January 6th is muted. And if you extrapolate out from day 10 it looks like it wants to phase the northern and southern branch with plenty of cold air in place in the Northeast. All models have something around the January 10th 11 time frame it could be an interesting time

[jmanley32]

Yeah but they all well offshore, suppressed? GFS has a double barrel low that's interesting.

[algae888]

Yeah but they all well offshore, suppressed?  GFS has a double barrel low that's interesting.

Yes J man the storms in the next 7 days are all going to be out to sea as we have no blocking. The one that I'm referring to that looks like it wants to phase would be day 10 on the Euro operational. It's a good thing to have the systems coming to Southern California especially if we get the blocking that so well modeled right now. They shouldn't cut and have a chance to come up the coast if the NAO goes negative

[amugs]

Look at the EURI AP ( Austin Powers) MJO FORECAST is this nice or what?

[sroc4]

Look at the EURI AP ( Austin Powers) MJO FORECAST is this nice or what?

I had an amazing write up this morning regarding the MJO and current observations, and how we are right on track. There were beuatiful graphics and maps to support my thoughts. I was an hr into my write up when I clicked the wrong button and lost it all!!!!!! I was so pissed. I may try and write it up again tonight or tomorrow morning. It was a keeper. End rant Yes Loving that MJO forecast

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Look at the EURI AP ( Austin Powers) MJO FORECAST is this nice or what?

I had an amazing write up this morning regarding the MJO and current observations, and how we are right on track.  There were beuatiful graphics and maps to support my thoughts.  I was an hr into my write up when I clicked the wrong button and lost it all!!!!!!  I was so pissed.  I may try and write it up again tonight or tomorrow morning.  It was a keeper.  End rant Yes Loving that MJO forecast

Ouch.

Been there done that. Excruciating when it happens.

[skinsfan1177]

Reading on other boards some have concerns about enough cold air getting down here

[Frank_Wx]

Look at the EURI AP ( Austin Powers) MJO FORECAST is this nice or what?

I had an amazing write up this morning regarding the MJO and current observations, and how we are right on track.  There were beuatiful graphics and maps to support my thoughts.  I was an hr into my write up when I clicked the wrong button and lost it all!!!!!!  I was so pissed.  I may try and write it up again tonight or tomorrow morning.  It was a keeper.  End rant Yes Loving that MJO forecast

I did that once. It ruined my week.

[algae888]

I think we have a solid storm signal jan 10/11 time frame....

eps goes from this

to this hrs 240-288. -epo +pna stj aimed right at us.

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