Re: Long Range Thread 9.0

[nutleyblizzard]

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/962

People ready to cancel winter??

Read the link above -  all in place as we go forward for another I feel great period of time incoming as we head deeper into winter. Evolution is starting, its going to come - Mid Januarish.

I agree with that analogy. I'm very confident in a pattern flip after the new year. This winter I believe will be remembered as a tale of two seasons. Right now we are in a very boring weather pattern; (for snow lovers anyway). We just have to be patient as Frank has mentioned on numerous occasions that this will be a gradual process toward a more wintry pattern. I can see a very active period commencing once we get into mid January right through February; extreme if our NAO goes negative too. I would like to see if a steady decline in our Nino develops in the coming days and weeks. The faster the better. That will help to hasten the pattern change.

[sroc4]

If taken verbatim there is no doubt the ability for the LP to deepen is greatly hindered by the lack of a block to the NE and/or a a strong enough ridge to the west to sharpen the trough on the back side.  However, I will add that there is no question that on all major models the intensity of the trough cont to evolve stronger as we aproach one week out.  That being said it of course could end up exactly as you said, and in all honesty is prob the right soln given the pattern were in, but 500mb pattern has been all over the place esp on the GFS op, but with an overall trend to a stronger trough.  Because of that I am going to remain "cautiously optimistic", keeping reality in mind, but recognizing that a huge system, potentially historic, will affect the Aleutian islands and alaska this weekend, and two successive and also formidable cutters will move into NE Canada before the time frame in question, so additional model correction could occcur as we see how they play out, esp the one into the Aleutians:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/powerful-bering-sea-storm-potential-record-breaking-fairbanks-anchorage-alaska/54125652

Although you and Frank are probably correct, I will cont to point out that the probability of a LP at or near the coast that could produce white gold, most likely interior if at all, is not zero. I would put it at 25% ATT.

[algae888]

scott completely agree. look at the difference between the 6z and 12z gfs at 500mb...

6z

12z
this is Monday at 7pm. almost the same....

6z

12z
wens 7pm
the 12z kicks out the ull near Hudson bay and the end result is a weaker flatter trough and ridge and weaker more east low.. so maybe rb is right that we are to progressive. still to early to discount this threat.

6z

12z

[NjWeatherGuy]

I could see us snowless until 2016. Not sure this upcoming storm will produce for us, the pattern favors an apps runner if you ask me, im not seeing a pattern change here yet. Id sit tight until January. For now enjoy the mild temps.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Seeing how dead this place is Im beginning to think some agree with this sentiment. 0z looked much the same last night.

[sroc4]

Seeing how dead this place is Im beginning to think some agree with this sentiment. 0z looked much the same last night.

Trending that way. Positively tilted trough. Decent cold shot but no real mechanism to spin up lp and steal it up the coast. Like Rb pointed out ends up a weak wave along a cold front.

[Frank_Wx]

There is nothing exciting - at all - in the pattern we're in. When it's 70 degrees in December you know it's awful. It's actually nation wide warmth, with the exception of the western US at times.

After next weekends cold spell - which is nothing more than a 2-3 day event - the EPS suggest another trough rolls into the western US and the east warms up again. Other guidance shows this as well. More will be talked about in the next Mo Mo, but Christmas will be snow-less this year.

[Frank_Wx]

The STJ , or Sub Tropical Jet, is overly amplified thanks to the extreme state of El Nino. You can see from the map below how it overpowers any other upper level feature and just floods the country with mild Pacific air. There's no form of blocking on the Pac or Atlantic side that could keep the STJ at check.

[Snow88]

I'm throwing in the towel for any snow this month. What a terrible month this has been.

[sroc4]

There is nothing exciting - at all - in the pattern we're in. When it's 70 degrees in December you know it's awful. It's actually nation wide warmth, with the exception of the western US at times.

After next weekends cold spell - which is nothing more than a 2-3 day event - the EPS suggest another trough rolls into the western US and the east warms up again. Other guidance shows this as well. More will be talked about in the next Mo Mo, but Christmas will be snow-less this year.

To put a positive spin on an overall neg outlook, at least in the image above there are higher heights showing up into the EPO region, and west of that the negatives looks to be trying to retrograde slight south of the western Aleutian Islands.

[Frank_Wx]

Current El Nino is shown to have the warmest SSTA's east of 120W. While this is still a basin wide event, I would have much preferred to see these anomalies concentrated near the Dateline more. El Nino will gradually weaken between now and the end of winter, but at what rate it weakens will significantly determine the outcome of our eventual winter pattern.

[Frank_Wx]

There is nothing exciting - at all - in the pattern we're in. When it's 70 degrees in December you know it's awful. It's actually nation wide warmth, with the exception of the western US at times.

After next weekends cold spell - which is nothing more than a 2-3 day event - the EPS suggest another trough rolls into the western US and the east warms up again. Other guidance shows this as well. More will be talked about in the next Mo Mo, but Christmas will be snow-less this year.

To put a positive spin on an overall neg outlook, at least in the image above there are higher heights showing up into the EPO region, and west of that the negatives looks to be trying to retrograde slight south of the western Aleutian Islands.

I question the validity of its staying power. Unfavorable MJO forcing is blocking a true Aleutian trough from developing. The low heights are above the Aleutians. I do think it's a step in the right direction. Hopefully we can build off of it. EPS members suggest warmth remains entrenched over the east even after Christmas.

[Frank_Wx]

The best news I have this morning comes from the Stratosphere. Guidance is getting aggressive with the extent of the warming over Siberia in the Day 10 range. GFS thinks this could actually split the PV. Since we're in a west based QBO I don't think that'll happen. Rather, I think it'll get displaced. Let's see this signal get within 5 days and shown on more guidance then I'll get excited.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Current El Nino is shown to have the warmest SSTA's east of 120W. While this is still a basin wide event,  I would have much preferred to see these anomalies concentrated near the Dateline more. El Nino will gradually weaken between now and the end of winter, but at what rate it weakens will significantly determine the outcome of our eventual winter pattern.

I said earlier in November we would know if El Nino will help or hurt us. Unfortunately I think itll hurt us because it got so damn strong, look at those anomalies, looks like 1997 now compared to 2 months ago, not what I wanted to see happen. We need to see it weaken from now on, and QUICKLY.

[skinsfan1177]

Current El Nino is shown to have the warmest SSTA's east of 120W. While this is still a basin wide event,  I would have much preferred to see these anomalies concentrated near the Dateline more. El Nino will gradually weaken between now and the end of winter, but at what rate it weakens will significantly determine the outcome of our eventual winter pattern.

I said earlier in November we would know if El Nino will help or hurt us. Unfortunately I think itll hurt us because it got so damn strong, look at those anomalies, looks like 1997 now compared to 2 months ago, not what I wanted to see happen. We need to see it weaken from now on, and QUICKLY.

Hey Tom even it where to weaken quickly won't isn't their a lot of lag time before it affects us like way to late.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Not necessairly, the pattern would be changing as the ENSO weakens and if it were to go more moderate we could enter a pattern where the MJO budges and the PV finally drops into the eastern US for the long term.

[amugs]

EPO looks to ride the roller coaster - good sign



UKIE says PV displaces - thanks to the latent heat release from Siberia - to the RESCUE!!!

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Be patient it will come.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Ultimately I think it happens in January. Like mugs says, just sit tight for a few weeks to a month at most, itll come eventually and if we're lucky it'll stick around longer and we'll be praying for warmth by late March. Lots of uncertainty of whats to come still.

[Math23x7]

The ECMWF ensembles from today have the MJO approaching Phase 7 by late December.  And I recall that for big snow in the winter in the east, we would need it to be in the Phase 7-8-1 range.  Here is the image from CPC of its run:

[NjWeatherGuy]

^Half the members put it back into the crapper tho, straddling the line.

[sroc4]

Current El Nino is shown to have the warmest SSTA's east of 120W. While this is still a basin wide event,  I would have much preferred to see these anomalies concentrated near the Dateline more. El Nino will gradually weaken between now and the end of winter, but at what rate it weakens will significantly determine the outcome of our eventual winter pattern.

I said earlier in November we would know if El Nino will help or hurt us. Unfortunately I think itll hurt us because it got so damn strong, look at those anomalies, looks like 1997 now compared to 2 months ago, not what I wanted to see happen. We need to see it weaken from now on, and QUICKLY.

This year looks nothing like 97:

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When and if we get a decent SSWEvent the other SST anomalies, which typicaly favor a cold push into the CONUS, will begin to attack the ridging in the east and begin beating it back.  As can be see in the last 10days of October Nino region 1.2 can very rapidly cool.  There have been westerly wind bursts around 120E or so which is the most likely reason 1.2 is warm again as the westerlies cont to pile warm water east, but even with its current warmth you can see by the graphic above it is nowhere near where it was in 97.  When or IF those westerlies subside nino 1.2 should cool just as rapidly as it did at the end of Oct.  

[NjWeatherGuy]

Yes there are differences, Nino 3.4 is exceptionally high as it was in 97, there are no 2 years exactly alike my point was the waters in the pacific have gotten warmer and anomalies are similar, the El Nino has strenthened from a few months ago which doesnt help our situation.

[algae888]

we should not discard the 18-22 time period just yet. the 18z gfs develops a coastal from a secondary s/w. i'm hearing eps also hinting at a secondary cold shot behind the first one. if we can get a s/w in the overall flow it gives us the potential for a little winter weather in this otherwise horrid pattern.

[algae888]

this is not a bad look if correct and doesn't have to correct much to produce for us.

there is a nice ridge out west a 50/50 low to slow the flow a bit.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Trough axis a littls too far east and positive, thats a good HP signature in the central US and 50/50 low, will watch but not holding my breath...

[sroc4]

Good morning. This is def going to be an interesting winter to follow and learn from. Unfort we will cont to have to here all the "winters over" crys while we wait for it to start. Here are Larry Cosgroves latest thoughts on winter and the current El Niño. Spoiler Alert...el Nino is NOT the main driver to the anomalously warm Nov and Dec.

"It goes without saying that many who wish for "real winter weather" in the United States are deeply troubled by the very warm December temperatures so far. Many unfairly are pointing fingers at the El Nino episode, which actually is not behaving according to synoptic climatology for such events. The Pacific Northwest continues to see excessive precipitation, while California and Florida have largely missed out on the excessive rainfall cases seen in 1982-83 and 1997-98, the previous periods that featured a very high-end +ENSO signal.

The polar westerlies remain unified, and dominant, which is much more like what should occur in a well-defined "La Nina" influenced pattern in the colder months over North America. Curiously, conditions across Eurasia are performing fairly close to weather that transpires with an El Nino (split flow, colder northern third with occasional spillages of cPk and cA regimes into the Middle East and Indus Valley).

So the operative question that is bandied about: are we really going to miss winter this time around? Has "global warming" conspired with the "Super El Nino" to chase away Santa for snow lovers in the U.S. The answer is no, Virginia! The warm December was forecast well by the analog method used here (no snow in Buffalo, and in fact total lack of ice over the entire Great Lakes). And there are very valid reasons for a "for real" change in the jet stream configuration across the entire continent once we move deeper into January.

First of all, I should clarify what I think is causing the display of mild temperatures and the unusual array of precipitation in the lower 48 states. It is not El Nino. Rather, the dominant driver in this configuration is the immense circumpolar vortex (see 10MB temperature forecasts), which has fairly evenly covered the Arctic Circle up to this point after congealing in October. This +AO phase is impressive, no doubt. Such a strong cAk gyre blots out any and all chances for lasting blocking ridge formation above 50 N Latitude. But research on the subject shows that long-lived and intense circulations straddling the North Pole cannot go on forever. And I suspect that cracks in the vortex will show up soon, given what the numerical models are projecting as a shift in the skew of the frigid circulation toward northern Europe and western Russia.

Another factor to consider is the very warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. It is not just the El Nino signal; check out the Atlantic Basin (excepting near the Grand Banks/Flemish Cap) and the entirety of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The atmosphere has been responding by moderating its boundary layer readings. But with a low sun angle and increasing snowpack in the Northern Hemisphere, something has got to give. With the aforementioned stratospheric warming in the western third of North America, and the still vigorous subtropical jet stream crossing Mexico into the Old South (forced there by the anomalous Southeast heat ridge), a mean 500MB trough should start to form between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia during the first week of January. It continues to be my thinking that a +PNA/-AO configuration will take shape next month, with the risk of major storms tracking along the Gulf Coast and then up along or off the Eastern Seaboard. That means drainage of air from Canada and the snowpack which is expanding across our northern neighbor.

Until that time, I can assure you that the 11 - 15 day period, and probably most of the 16 - 20 day range, will again be a cold/cool West vs. mild/warm East alignment. Storms should still roll through the Pacific Northwest into the lower High Plains, than recurve into Michigan and Ontario. A key flashpoint in the last week of December and first week of January is snow cover in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. If we indeed are going to see a colder turn in the New Year, Minnesota, Wisconsin and the MI Upper Peninsula will see more of the white stuff as we greet 2016.

Winter is not over yet, gang. We've only just begun. "

[Frank_Wx]

Nice read. He brings up a great point - our atmosphere is not responding to El Nino. The STJ is displaced north into the central and northern Pacific. Storm systems effecting Pac NW should realistically be tracking into southern California during an El Nino. Additionally, the MJO has been very active the last several weeks. If you research the MJO during El Nino years, it's shown to be in the COD. In sum, the MJO and Stratosphere are the main drivers behind our current pattern and the El Nino acts more as an enhancement. So yea, def agree with Larry with this. Though I do feel the very strong 200-300mb jet streaks crashing into the western US have something to do with the intensity of El Nino.

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