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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:36 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@algae888 wrote:Latest numbers:
Nino tanking in the east.
1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5.
1.2 and 3 have cooled by .8 and .4*c, 3.4 and 4 by .3*c. hopefully this will cause convection to be centered near the DL and help keep the trough south of the Aleutians. olr lr maps say yes. we shall see if this can save our winter.

What winter?
I know cp it's been very frustrating so far. my thoughts have always been on 1 or 2 major snowstorms for our area. if we do not get these we will almost certainly have less than ave snow for our area. we will not nickel and dime our way through like last year. hopefully things break in our favor.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:46 am

@algae888 wrote:Latest numbers:
Nino tanking in the east.
1.6, 2.6, 2.7, 1.5.
1.2 and 3 have cooled by .8 and .4*c, 3.4 and 4 by .3*c. hopefully this will cause convection to be centered near the DL and help keep the trough south of the Aleutians. olr lr maps say yes. we shall see if this can save our winter.

It is changing as we write or has - it has been awful so far to say the least but as i said and have been pounding home here and showing since frickin Oct that will collapse from east to west rapidly - would have loved to see this a month ago but not happening so I take what big Momma is going to give and that is a great second half. As per my discussion with another one of my ex students who is pro met (posted in banter what his thesis is on) last night he said - the Pac Nino is collapsing rapidly as we speak and the convection of Thunderstorms will and are firing up between 155w and 180 (dateline). This will pull that death vortex over the Aleutians (feedback) SSW to the 150 W. this will in turn allow the EPO to go N and teh PNA to go + along with what he is seeing as a nice -AO and the PV effecting us by as Frank said the 2nd half of winter - 3rd to 4th week. He believes from research that the NAO goes NEG in teh means teh 2nd half and is usually the last chip to go. He thinks teh Karant Sea Ridge is going to be a very big player for us teh second half building this cross arctic bridge through Hudson bay region. Listen is it there yes it is but this is a process and the snow we are all hoping for will come hopefully sooner but lets get the cold air source going first here since the STJ is here already. MJO is forecaster to be on our side going forward so that is another plus.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:35 am

Anybody else notice the GFS running incredibly slow lately? Its like the page and hour images take 5 minutes to load while its running.
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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 04, 2016 11:58 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Anybody else notice the GFS running incredibly slow lately? Its like the page and hour images take 5 minutes to load while its running.


It has been very slow lately.
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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:07 pm

Dissapointing run too as far as the white stuff is concerned. Just not enough cold air.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:14 pm

It could be showing a transition period we're ultimately in.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 04, 2016 12:51 pm

Folks,

The model runs are going to waver like syo and docstox catching a fish as they pull it in!! They are going to flop all over the place. Just read an earthlight and Isotherm post and as I have said numerous times they OP's will show numerous solutions and are not handlingteh transition that Frank has spoken, written about. You will drive yourself to drunken !!! may not be a bad thing for some but in an evolution pattern change the Stratosphere is going to play a major role as it is evolving into a winter pattern itself along with the Trop forcing out near the dateline and Siberian snow pack (HP). The -EPO and +PNA will be in the means for teh rest of winter as will the -AO may it relax a bit sure as every pattern does but will it be like a Dec hell no. Once we lock in come teh latter part of Jan then teh OP's will be better as of now they are fricking ridiculous.

Ens Ens Ens

Earthlights Post - read it and have patience for crying all night!!

I simply don't understand the whistle blowing alarmists on this forum which is largely why I haven't posted in four days. That being said, I'll chime in here. There are two things to consider. First of all, tropical forcing remains focused near the dateline with the best OLR anomalies well west of where both A) Long range models projected it to be a few months ago and B ) Farther west than the other Nino years which were used as analogs by warm agenda folks. With that being said, the models trying to slide the Aleutian low farther east rapidly are likely incorrect and doing so progressively. The GFS, for one, has been absolutely atrocious in handling tropical forcing and convection. It's MJO forecasts have been some of the worst I have ever seen.(Stop humping the GFS!!!) This tropical forcing bias to the east likely explains its propensity to slide the Aleutian trough too far east, too fast.

Second of all, I simply do not understand the idea that a Gulf of Alaska trough is all that bad to begin within. Or possibly people aren't taking the time to understand that the atmosphere doesn't work in definitions. There is a negative connotation with the acronym "GOA Low" and that seems to have spread like wildfire. Instead, lets take the time to understand this: If a Aleutian low extends east or southeast for a time and remains amplified, it can actually amplify the PNA into British Columbia and the Arctic Circle (EPO) and help us -- ESPECIALLY if we have high latitude ridging or above normal heights, which we currently do. Why don't we all go back and look at Boxing Day 2010 as an example. There was a tremendous, anomalous, large trough in the Gulf of Alaska which helped pump up the PNA. Consider now that this is the same thing we are all fearing and crying about.

The GOA low can additionally help to enhance high latitude blocking. Wave breaking patterns downstream can help to enhance ridging into the true NAO regions, as the PNA ridge builds and the EPO ridge is pumped up via the enhanced and more amplified wave field. The one thing we don't want to see is a totally de-amplified west coast trough which would come via a screaming Pac Jet. I have only seen this on one model run -- otherwise no ensembles are showing this and we should be very happy about that. This is a function of the high latitude blocking keeping the tropospheric pattern more amplified.

With the high latitude ridging/above normal heights being modeled (AGAIN, THIS IS NOT SOME KIND OF UTOPIAN DREAM, IT IS REALITY), a GOA Low can actually help us if it is positioned correctly. With that being said, I will fade into the background again until you all stop flopping around and blowing whistles over OP runs. The same thing still stands from November when myself, Isotherm, Frank, etc put out our forecasts. It's coming in Mid to late January, and it's still coming. I'll have a full post up tonight.

I will share when he does.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:00 pm

I knew the 2nd storm would end up being too warm, as of now verbatim another rainstorm, if anything. Sigh, I dunno how much I will be on here if this keeps up....
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Post by hyde345 Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:05 pm

Mugs, your above post makes sense and I understand we need to be patient. It just looks like the weekend systems may not have enough cold air source to work with but I fully anticipate that not being the case as we head into the second half of January.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:28 pm

gfs ensembles still showing storm 2 further south and east. I do not know if it will still be cold enough for most of us but n/w areas should not give up on this one..
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27
op
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_28
ens.
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_28
ind. members
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:35 pm

Canadian ens further east than op and gfs ens...
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_28
ens
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27
op
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:39 pm

Canadian 500mb op and ensembles...
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Gem_z500_vort_us_26
op
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Gem-ens_z500_vort_us_25
ens.
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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:24 pm

euro is basically a cold front for storm 2. could be setting stage for something later. looks plenty cold starting next Monday. lets see what ensembles say.
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Post by amugs Mon Jan 04, 2016 2:44 pm

Ens run

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Ecmwf_z500a_noram_33(20)

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:37 pm

Stratosphere update:

From research I've found most SSW events are achieved when mean zonal winds at 10hPa/60*N shift from westerly to easterly.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Ecmwfzm_u_f240

Day 10 EURO is still showing a strong westerly phase in that region.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Fluxes

Wind speed at 1hPa looks to decrease through January. This is good news as it usually signals a weakening PV. Hopefully the slight rise mid-month is a temporary trend. On the 2nd panel it looks like wind speeds are decreasing at 10hPa and 30hPa. Further suggesting the Strat PV is undergoing gradual weakening.

The bad news behind this graphic comes in the 3rd and last panel. It looks like after this spike in Wave 2 Geopotential Heat Flux, attributed to the Tropospheric blocking / Tropical Forcing, Wave 2 will dramatically fall off. This to me implies we should not hold our breath on a PV split. Rather, hope for strong Wave 1 amplification to displace the Strat PV.

Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Ecmwfzm_ha1_f216

Fortunately the Wave 1 event does look to continue into the foreseeable future. Will this be enough for displacement by the end of the month? I hope so...

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 04, 2016 5:59 pm

frank I am hearing euro weeklies aren't good week 3-4. back to above normal for us. that brings us into early feb. any thoughts?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:42 pm

@algae888 wrote:frank I am hearing euro weeklies aren't good week 3-4. back to above normal for us. that brings us into early feb. any thoughts?

With negative OLR anomalies expected to persist over the Dateline, I can't see how the Aleutian trough moves into the west coast. Not believing the Weeklies for now.

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Post by chief7 Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:55 pm

You kind of scare me Frank with all this talk with the stratosphere possibly not coming to fruition

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:18 pm

@chief7 wrote:You kind of scare me Frank with all this talk with the stratosphere possibly not coming to fruition

I'm not worried yet with the Strat. If this time next week it looks the same then I will worry.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:23 pm

People who have been coining this El Nino to be like 199u-1998 are completely wrong. Region 1+2 took another hit in the latest update. Eastern ENSO regions continue to cool.

23DEC2015 25.2 2.1 28.0 2.7 29.3 2.7 30.0 1.6
30DEC2015 25.2 1.6 28.0 2.6 29.3 2.7 29.9 1.5

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:People who have been coining this El Nino to be like 199u-1998 are completely wrong. Region 1+2 took another hit in the latest update. Eastern ENSO regions continue to cool.

23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5

Yes sir.  I believe Al posted this earlier today as well.  For those that prefer a picture, here is the same info in graphic form.  
Long Range Thread 9.0 - Page 4 Nino12

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:56 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:People who have been coining this El Nino to be like 199u-1998 are completely wrong. Region 1+2 took another hit in the latest update. Eastern ENSO regions continue to cool.

23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6
30DEC2015     25.2 1.6     28.0 2.6     29.3 2.7     29.9 1.5

Those people should be banned!!!!!!!!!

Euro weeklies showing a not so good week 4 (+3-4)but they do not have a handle on the drivers that far out - for this week 3-4 weeks ago they had AN by +5 then went to +3 & 4 and did not see this cold snap (only two weeks ago did it realize this)so take them again like a grain of salt that far out in a changing pattern. Not worried about that time frame.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:32 pm

Until this year, there have only been 12 years since 1869 that NYC saw a trace or less of snow by December 31st. All of those years have had below average snowfall, most of  them well bellow average. The average for those 12 years is 14.6 inches which is about half the normal seasonal total. The highest was 1891-92 which had 25.4 inches, still below the 28.8 inches which is the 147 year average.

I would love to finally end that streak this year but I'm not optimistic.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:36 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Until this year, there have only been 12 years since 1869 that NYC saw a trace or less of snow by December 31st. All of those years have had below average snowfall, most of  them well bellow average. The average for those 12 years is 14.6 inches which is about half the normal seasonal total. The highest was 1891-92 which had 25.4 inches, still below the 28.8 inches which is the 147 year average.

I would love to finally end that streak this year but I'm not optimistic.

This streak will be broken.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 04, 2016 9:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Until this year, there have only been 12 years since 1869 that NYC saw a trace or less of snow by December 31st. All of those years have had below average snowfall, most of  them well bellow average. The average for those 12 years is 14.6 inches which is about half the normal seasonal total. The highest was 1891-92 which had 25.4 inches, still below the 28.8 inches which is the 147 year average.

I would love to finally end that streak this year but I'm not optimistic.

This streak will be broken.

I love it when you say things like that. From your mouth to Gods ear.
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