Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

jmanley32 wrote:NWS upton updated at 3:29 not buying it.  Has less than a inch and in local forecast slight chance snow.

That time stamp is 3:29 AM

Neither is TWC for NYC anyways, I hope Frank is right along with the SR models.

bloc1357 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:NWS upton updated at 3:29 not buying it.  Has less than a inch and in local forecast slight chance snow.

That time stamp is 3:29 AM

Heh opps me tired....

WWAs up from Mt. Holly for 1-3

mt. holly in there disco say 1-3 to 2-4. I guess they feel snow will have a tough time sticking. very conservative imo.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-
051000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON UNPAVED SURFACES.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL OVERNIGHT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS, MAINLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AS WELL
AS ON SIDEWALKS.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO IN THE MID 30S.

algae888 wrote:mt. holly in there disco say 1-3 to 2-4. I guess they feel snow will have a tough time sticking. very conservative imo.

If it stays just a nudge east like the NAM shows, then theyre probably right, but if we get GFS/SREF/other SR model QPF then the precip rates and wetbulbing should allow the snow to stick. Plus at least here there is still partial snowpack hanging on which may make a minor difference.

I think by tonight we should have our advisory

18z rgem...

mixing starts around 2am




mod snow 4am thru 10am
looks to hold serve

RGEM, looks a hair better again
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

jmanley32 wrote:Neither is TWC for NYC anyways, I hope Frank is right along with the SR models.

They have the precip but have forecast temps too warm for snow acclumation.

Snow map from me later

Well look at this...


Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW TO REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-176-178-050515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
406 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND NEW
 YORK CITY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
 LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
 BECOMING ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
 RUSH HOUR.

* IMPACTS....HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND REDUCED
 VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

upton just updated..
2-5" for me in mt. Vernon. seems reasonable

Tonight

A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow likely between midnight and 3am, then snow after 3am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. North wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.


Friday

Snow, mainly before 9am. High near 39. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

no wsw wwa for most of the area

can someone give me an explanation on how this snow comes about I mean its 50* right now for me is their a cold front that's coming through to lower temps.

Active winter weather warning,

This is from Wunderground. I have been checking all day. Just came up.

skinsfan1177 wrote:can someone give me an explanation on how this snow comes about I mean its 50* right now for me is their a cold front that's coming through to lower temps.

yup. See it over the GL?

Winter weather advisory is now in effect for NYC and long island from 1 am till 10 am 2 to 4 inches of snow

20z RAP Reflectivity

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=20&fhour=13&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

TWC couldn't wait to mention Boston I bet!!!

QPF
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=20&fhour=18&parameter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

I gotta believe the guys on here. They've been good at this, but I am having a really hard time buying 3-6" (NWS has me in a WWA for 3-5" with locally higher amounts) when it is still 50" at 4;30 p.m. and the ground is warm and soft.

Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning. People are going to be very shocked by this system. I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much

sroc4 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:can someone give me an explanation on how this snow comes about I mean its 50* right now for me is their a cold front that's coming through to lower temps.

yup.  See it over the GL?

Thanks sroc

sroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning.  People are going to be very shocked by this system.  I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much  

I feel its extremely dependent on precipitation intensity. Also, looking at the RAP/HRRR, if the changeover occurs prior to sunrise, surface temperatures will have the ability to cooler easier without any incoming solar radiation, lessening wasted QPF. A 5am changeover is more favorable rather than a 7am changeover

sroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning.  People are going to be very shocked by this system.  I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much  

Wow beautiful but uggggly for a drive into city.