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Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?)

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:44 pm

@bloc1357 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:NWS upton updated at 3:29 not buying it.  Has less than a inch and in local forecast slight chance snow.

That time stamp is 3:29 AM

Heh opps me tired....
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:44 pm

WWAs up from Mt. Holly for 1-3
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:46 pm

mt. holly in there disco say 1-3 to 2-4. I guess they feel snow will have a tough time sticking. very conservative imo.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:47 pm

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ008>010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-101>106-
051000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...
NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
327 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND NORTHERN DELAWARE.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON UNPAVED SURFACES.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT AS TEMPERATURES
FALL OVERNIGHT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL IMPACT THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
COULD CAUSE SLICK SPOTS, MAINLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AS WELL
AS ON SIDEWALKS.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO IN THE MID 30S.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:50 pm

@algae888 wrote:mt. holly in there disco say 1-3 to 2-4. I guess they feel snow will have a tough time sticking. very conservative imo.

If it stays just a nudge east like the NAM shows, then theyre probably right, but if we get GFS/SREF/other SR model QPF then the precip rates and wetbulbing should allow the snow to stick. Plus at least here there is still partial snowpack hanging on which may make a minor difference.
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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:51 pm

I think by tonight we should have our advisory

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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:04 pm

18z rgem...
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 I_nw_EST_2016020418_013
mixing starts around 2am
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 I_nw_EST_2016020418_015
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 I_nw_EST_2016020418_016
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 I_nw_EST_2016020418_017
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 I_nw_EST_2016020418_020
mod snow 4am thru 10am
looks to hold serve
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:05 pm

RGEM, looks a hair better again
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by Dtone Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:09 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Neither is TWC for NYC anyways, I hope Frank is right along with the SR models.

They have the precip but have forecast temps too warm for snow acclumation.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:11 pm

Snow map from me later
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Post by Dtone Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:11 pm

Well look at this...


Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW TO REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-176-178-050515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.160205T0600Z-160205T1500Z/
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
406 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND NEW
 YORK CITY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
 LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
 BECOMING ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK. THIS WILL IMPACT THE MORNING
 RUSH HOUR.

* IMPACTS....HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND REDUCED
 VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.





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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:11 pm

upton just updated..
2-5" for me in mt. Vernon. seems reasonable

Tonight

A chance of rain before midnight, then rain and snow likely between midnight and 3am, then snow after 3am. Low around 33. Wind chill values between 25 and 30. North wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.


Friday

Snow, mainly before 9am. High near 39. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
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Post by algae888 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:13 pm

no wsw wwa for most of the area
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Okx
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:14 pm

can someone give me an explanation on how this snow comes about I mean its 50* right now for me is their a cold front that's coming through to lower temps.
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Post by Taffy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:16 pm

Active winter weather warning,

This is from Wunderground. I have been checking all day. Just came up.
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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:18 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:can someone give me an explanation on how this snow comes about I mean its 50* right now for me is their a cold front that's coming through to lower temps.

yup. See it over the GL?

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Noaad1

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by frank 638 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:19 pm

Winter weather advisory is now in effect for NYC and long island from 1 am till 10 am 2 to 4 inches of snow

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:22 pm

20z RAP Reflectivity

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=20&fhour=13&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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Post by bloc1357 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:23 pm

TWC couldn't wait to mention Boston I bet!!!

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:28 pm

QPF
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=02&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=20&fhour=18&parameter=PCPIN&level=18&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
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Post by Guest Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:30 pm

I gotta believe the guys on here. They've been good at this, but I am having a really hard time buying 3-6" (NWS has me in a WWA for 3-5" with locally higher amounts) when it is still 50" at 4;30 p.m. and the ground is warm and soft.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:33 pm

Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning. People are going to be very shocked by this system. I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Hrrr_r10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Hrrr_t11

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:34 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:can someone give me an explanation on how this snow comes about I mean its 50* right now for me is their a cold front that's coming through to lower temps.

yup.  See it over the GL?

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Noaad1
Thanks sroc
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Post by Quietace Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:35 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning.  People are going to be very shocked by this system.  I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much  

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Hrrr_r10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Hrrr_t11
I feel its extremely dependent on precipitation intensity. Also, looking at the RAP/HRRR, if the changeover occurs prior to sunrise, surface temperatures will have the ability to cooler easier without any incoming solar radiation, lessening wasted QPF. A 5am changeover is more favorable rather than a 7am changeover


Last edited by Quietace on Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Feb 04, 2016 4:36 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Latest HRRR valid 6am tomorrow morning.  People are going to be very shocked by this system.  I really dont think temps are goiong to hold down accumulations that much  

Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Hrrr_r10
Blog: February 5th Potential (Sneak Attack?) - Page 11 Hrrr_t11

Wow beautiful but uggggly for a drive into city.
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