Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[sroc4]

From two mets about the MJO

The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.

I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.

This as much of an educated guess as any Mugs.  Even still a compromise still has our MJO come out in late 5-6 which may still allow our SE ridge to flex if the -EPO/-WPO arctic blocking regime is over modeled at all, and or axis is shifted west.  After all this entire winter we have been under the background influence of La Nina forcings. So if other pattern enhancers do not end up being as strong as originally thought then that SE ridge pops back up. There are no gaurantees either way at this stage.  It is encouraging words though from JM

[amugs]

From two mets about the MJO

The MJO helped set off the pattern change that we are seeing now, and the wave breaking in the Pacific it helped set off keeps its effects going a bit longer. But it initially came through in such a warm regime with a strong PAC Jet that there was a huge lag between the MJO phase and our actual temperatures.

I'm currently analyzing the MJO, I'm skeptical of all guidance right now as we all should be, however I currently think that a compromise between the ECMWF and GEFS is most likely, leaving tropical forcing and background state plus omega Arctic North Pacific ridge leading to snow for all of us.

This as much of an educated guess as any Mugs.  Even still a compromise still has our MJO come out in late 5-6 which may still allow our SE ridge to flex if the -EPO/-WPO arctic blocking regime is over modeled at all, and or axis is shifted west.  After all this entire winter we have been under the background influence of La Nina forcings.   So if other pattern enhancers do not end up being as strong as originally thought then that SE ridge pops back up.  There are no guarantees either way at this stage.  It is encouraging words though from JM

Scott this guy is phenomenal with this as a LR forecaster like Tom (Isotherm) Frank, you, Armando etc. here.
We have been discussing that the models have not been or lagging big time with teh MJO pulse/trop forcing. He loves the time frame from now until Feb 12thish-14th. We shall see but at least we have something in the works.

[rb924119]

EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

[sroc4]

EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

Just have to reel that beeotch into the short range.

[sroc4]

EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

Just have to reel that beeotch into the short range.

[rb924119]

EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

Just have to reel that beeotch into the short range.

I'll even make a sacrifice to the Pagan Snow Gods if that's what it takes......desperate times call for desperate measures aha

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO Ens looks very bullish for the 5th-6th threat. SO many more model runs to go. Check back on Monday.

[Ronniek]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

[Grselig]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

I will gladly sacrifice a beautiful sunny August for a Zilla.

[rb924119]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

CP WITH THE CLUTCH CLIP ahahahahaha too funny

[skinsfan1177]

A better -nao we are getting their

[amugs]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

Please keep this banter. 
Tis has NOOOOOO discussion on the LR pattern for what this thread is. We have a banter thread to vent in Ronnie.
Thanks.

[amugs]

Well remember I posted yesterday the GEFS with the MJO and it has been leading the way this winter with the MJOnpulse. We'll sad to say the EURO. ....... SAID HELLO LET'S GO PARTY GEFS!!! PHASE 8 BABY TO 1 TO 2 HOPEFULLY BUT LOTS GOOD.

[amugs]

Pulled this from a friend posts
Wave one a tack on the PV is serious heat here
141 degrees F



Wave two is 134 man how frigin hot do we need tis to break this sucker in two. Chris the would burn a human to a charred burger 2 x over

[Frank_Wx]

Displacement of the Strat PV is underway and expected to undergo serious disruption over the next 10 to 15 days. How this translates to the Trop will be interesting to watch unfold, but I already see signs of high latitude blocking working it's way into the Arctic basin. The WPO ridge will retrograde into Siberia by Day 10, and a possible west coast ridge may develop in response to an active MJO forecasted to get back into favorable phases. The 500mb pattern almost looks conducive for possible Wave 2 warming. If this were to happen, I imagine the Strat PV will be completely destroyed which could make for an interesting end of Feb or early March. But let's see what happens with Wave 1.

February 2nd to 15th remains a favorable period to see multiple snowstorm threats. I maintain that the 1st half of February will finish below normal, and the month as a whole has a chance to depending with what happens in the Stratosphere. Keep in mind these changes to our pattern were a result of a significant jet extension in the PAC from an East Asian Mountain Torque Event and westerly winds developing over the Dateline which helped activate the initial MJO wave. Without question this is a pattern change from where we are now. Temps this month at some stations are +7. Februarys 1st half should average -1 to -2.

As for the event on the 5th...I feel the pattern is in our favor for a Mothrazilla (SECS) type storm to affect the area. The potential is there for a Godzilla (MECS) but the 500mb pattern from the Wave 1 warming will not translate until the period after February 8th or so. This is why I mentioned a couple of days ago we don't have just the 5th-6th to watch, but also the 10th-13th.

Interesting times ahead. Much better than January. Not even close.

[sroc4]

Pulled this from a friend posts
Wave one a tack on the PV is serious heat here
141 degrees F



Wave two is 134 man how frigin hot do we need tis to break this sucker in two. Chris the would burn a human to a charred burger 2 x over

Tell your friend this is an anomaly map.  So its not actually 141*F, but 141* above avg.  So if avg temp at 10mb up is -200*F then actual temp is still -59*F.  Actually if you look at the map the actual temps are on it.  Looks like the warmest temps are -2 to 2*C or so

[Frank_Wx]

Also important to realize is the first week of February will have many clipper-like systems passing through our area at the 500mb level. Even if they don't translate to anything at the surface, it keeps reinforcing the cold. There's lots of moving pieces but I like the chances of the stars aligning for the storm on the 5th.

The clipper on the 2nd is still alive even though models trended north and drier with it today.

[rb924119]

Also important to realize is the first week of February will have many clipper-like systems passing through our area at the 500mb level. Even if they don't translate to anything at the surface, it keeps reinforcing the cold. There's lots of moving pieces but I like the chances of the stars aligning for the storm on the 5th.

The clipper on the 2nd is still alive even though models trended north and drier with it today.

Couldn't have said it any better, Frank. Btw, as much as I hate analyzing off-hour runs, as you know, 18z GFS looks much more believable at H5 than its 12z run, and is almost identical the CMC. Gives merit to our collective thoughts. Lastly, where has Bobby been?

[SoulSingMG]

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

[rb924119]

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE

[devsman]

Lee gets a pass. If it was Al roker, then it would all but guarantee a rainstorm

[Grselig]

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE

[jmanley32]

Wow taken verbatim 18z is a low end Godzilla pretty much areawide. Wish it was within a few days not 240 out. Still gr8 eye candy.

[rb924119]

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE

ANOTHER clutch clip!! Although I falsely quoted so I should be in that Monty Python clip being stoned aha

[SoulSingMG]

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

CP WITH THE CLUTCH CLIP ahahahahaha too funny

RB, I'm impressed at age 25 you're even aware of Monty Pythons Life of Brian. Throw the sacreligious aside if possible, just a hysterical movie.

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