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Long Range Thread 13.0

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:15 pm

EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:47 pm

@rb924119 wrote:EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

Just have to reel that beeotch into the short range.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:33 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

Just have to reel that beeotch into the short range.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 6524938-Angler-fisherman-fighting-big-fish-rod-and-reel-saltwater-ocean-Stock-Photo

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:34 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:EURO=AMAZEBALLS at H5 lol again, eye candy, but d_mn lmao

Just have to reel that beeotch into the short range.

I'll even make a sacrifice to the Pagan Snow Gods if that's what it takes......desperate times call for desperate measures aha

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:38 pm

The EURO Ens looks very bullish for the 5th-6th threat. SO many more model runs to go. Check back on Monday.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 588bae6e75099_eps_slp_lows_conus_41jan27day10eps.thumb.png.7b6c3a60f95e1d264ad35cd706d2e61a

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Post by Ronniek Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:09 pm

This winter is a bust bring on spring

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:17 pm

@Ronniek wrote:This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk
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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:25 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Ronniek wrote:This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

I will gladly sacrifice a beautiful sunny August for a Zilla.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:42 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Ronniek wrote:This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

CP WITH THE CLUTCH CLIP ahahahahaha too funny

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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:53 pm

A better -nao we are getting theirLong Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 Test811
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:03 pm

@Ronniek wrote:This winter is a bust bring on spring

Please keep this banter. 
Tis has NOOOOOO discussion on the LR pattern for what this thread is. We have a banter thread to vent in Ronnie.
Thanks.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:05 pm

Well remember I posted yesterday the GEFS with the MJO and it has been leading the way this winter with the MJOnpulse. We'll sad to say the EURO. ....... SAID HELLO LET'S GO PARTY GEFS!!! PHASE 8 BABY TO 1 TO 2 HOPEFULLY BUT LOTS GOOD.

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 IMG_0278.GIF.9daf3d7e896c108b67ea437f0091e470

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:11 pm

Pulled this from a friend posts
Wave one a tack on the PV is serious heat here
141 degrees F
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 588bbb84ac598_ScreenHunter_282Jan_2716_25.png.f167a98b0f45c194f564744a20c26cd8


Wave two is 134 man how frigin hot do we need tis to break this sucker in two. Chris the would burn a human to a charred burger 2 x over

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 588bbbf28740a_ScreenHunter_281Jan_2716_25.png.35ffc480c0360c5c07946ab8ee81051c

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:16 pm

Displacement of the Strat PV is underway and expected to undergo serious disruption over the next 10 to 15 days. How this translates to the Trop will be interesting to watch unfold, but I already see signs of high latitude blocking working it's way into the Arctic basin. The WPO ridge will retrograde into Siberia by Day 10, and a possible west coast ridge may develop in response to an active MJO forecasted to get back into favorable phases. The 500mb pattern almost looks conducive for possible Wave 2 warming. If this were to happen, I imagine the Strat PV will be completely destroyed which could make for an interesting end of Feb or early March. But let's see what happens with Wave 1.

February 2nd to 15th remains a favorable period to see multiple snowstorm threats. I maintain that the 1st half of February will finish below normal, and the month as a whole has a chance to depending with what happens in the Stratosphere. Keep in mind these changes to our pattern were a result of a significant jet extension in the PAC from an East Asian Mountain Torque Event and westerly winds developing over the Dateline which helped activate the initial MJO wave. Without question this is a pattern change from where we are now. Temps this month at some stations are +7. Februarys 1st half should average -1 to -2.

As for the event on the 5th...I feel the pattern is in our favor for a Mothrazilla (SECS) type storm to affect the area. The potential is there for a Godzilla (MECS) but the 500mb pattern from the Wave 1 warming will not translate until the period after February 8th or so. This is why I mentioned a couple of days ago we don't have just the 5th-6th to watch, but also the 10th-13th.

Interesting times ahead. Much better than January. Not even close.


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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:17 pm

@amugs wrote:Pulled this from a friend posts
Wave one a tack on the PV is serious heat here
141 degrees F
Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 588bbb84ac598_ScreenHunter_282Jan_2716_25.png.f167a98b0f45c194f564744a20c26cd8


Wave two is 134 man how frigin hot do we need tis to break this sucker in two. Chris the would burn a human to a charred burger 2 x over

Long Range Thread 13.0 - Page 5 588bbbf28740a_ScreenHunter_281Jan_2716_25.png.35ffc480c0360c5c07946ab8ee81051c

Tell your friend this is an anomaly map.  So its not actually 141*F, but 141* above avg.  So if avg temp at 10mb up is -200*F then actual temp is still -59*F.  Actually if you look at the map the actual temps are on it.  Looks like the warmest temps are -2 to 2*C or so

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:31 pm

Also important to realize is the first week of February will have many clipper-like systems passing through our area at the 500mb level. Even if they don't translate to anything at the surface, it keeps reinforcing the cold. There's lots of moving pieces but I like the chances of the stars aligning for the storm on the 5th.

The clipper on the 2nd is still alive even though models trended north and drier with it today.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:15 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Also important to realize is the first week of February will have many clipper-like systems passing through our area at the 500mb level. Even if they don't translate to anything at the surface, it keeps reinforcing the cold. There's lots of moving pieces but I like the chances of the stars aligning for the storm on the 5th.

The clipper on the 2nd is still alive even though models trended north and drier with it today.

Couldn't have said it any better, Frank. Btw, as much as I hate analyzing off-hour runs, as you know, 18z GFS looks much more believable at H5 than its 12z run, and is almost identical the CMC. Gives merit to our collective thoughts. Lastly, where has Bobby been?

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:27 pm

LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

party
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:32 pm

@SoulSingMG wrote:LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

party

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE Brick Brick

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Post by devsman Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:42 pm

Lee gets a pass. If it was Al roker, then it would all but guarantee a rainstorm
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Post by Grselig Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:44 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

party

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE Brick Brick

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:45 pm

Wow taken verbatim 18z is a low end Godzilla pretty much areawide. Wish it was within a few days not 240 out. Still gr8 eye candy.
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:54 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

party

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE Brick Brick


ANOTHER clutch clip!! Although I falsely quoted so I should be in that Monty Python clip being stoned aha

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:02 pm

@Grselig wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@SoulSingMG wrote:LEE GOLDBERG just sounded quiet alarms for "next Super Bowl Sunday into Monday" for a significant snow storm; said many signals have been pointing toward this timeframe for a storm. RARE for him to mention anything this far out.

party

Oh great....just as the announcer's curse holds true in sports, the TV met's curse will hold for snow storms. So it was written SO SHALL IT BE DONE Brick Brick


lol! lol!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:27 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Ronniek wrote:This winter is a bust bring on spring

Stone him, or her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIaORknS1Dk

CP WITH THE CLUTCH CLIP ahahahahaha too funny

RB, I'm impressed at age 25 you're even aware of Monty Pythons Life of Brian. Throw the sacreligious aside if possible, just a hysterical movie.
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