Re: BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:23 am

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay before coastal folks freak teh freak and Jman as well - looka this map fromanoterh poster - says it all - GFS to far west in this set up with so much confluence over head

Disagree, Mugsy, respectfully, of course haha while yes it is there, the orientation is such that it will help slow the northward progression, not western. I think the GFS is actually on track with this, and this ends up as a coastal hugger, or thereabouts. If you wanted a more offshore track, the ridging would need to be stronger over the central CONUS, not the western Atlantic like we have. Just my humble opinion.

not what I wanna hear but it will b what it will hopefully I can squeeze out at least a foot. I'm about 15 miles inland but on that run doesn't look like that's far enough inland. Wouldn't a stronger lp keep warm air out and mske own cold?

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:24 am

amugs wrote:THIS IS STILL A TREMENDOUS HIT

it is looks like about 12 to 18 just north of city.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:24 am

The CMC is out to sea. You can't make this stuff up.

by **RJB8525** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:25 am

man..this is going to be some sleepless nights

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:25 am

UKMET still a big hit.

The Canadian is well east

BLOG: Roidzilla Could Impact Area Tuesday March 14th - Page 7 58c2d107cfeae

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:27 am

Ooph now cmc would really disappoint all well offshore.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:27 am

by **jake732** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:28 am

frank is the UKMET a reliable model?? is it ofen right??

by **docstox12** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:28 am

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay before coastal folks freak teh freak and Jman as well - looka this map fromanoterh poster - says it all - GFS to far west in this set up with so much confluence over head

Disagree, Mugsy, respectfully, of course haha while yes it is there, the orientation is such that it will help slow the northward progression, not western. I think the GFS is actually on track with this, and this ends up as a coastal hugger, or thereabouts. If you wanted a more offshore track, the ridging would need to be stronger over the central CONUS, not the western Atlantic like we have. Just my humble opinion.

Shades of March 1993 where it started out as a raging blizzard in Mahwah NJ but then, being too close to the coast, turned to a sleet storm that dumped 3 inches of sleet on 14 inches of snow.Areas west just over the border in PA got 36 inches of snow.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:28 am

P.S. I banned the "K' word.

Hint: It's the word found in the snow map I just posted. I hate these types of snow maps. Busted badly last storm.

by **jmanley32** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:29 am

RJB8525 wrote:man..this is going to be some sleepless nights

that's for sure I'm go have try find st to keep me occupied to pass the time quicker.

by Guest Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:29 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

I'm perfectly fine with this.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:30 am

rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay before coastal folks freak teh freak and Jman as well - looka this map fromanoterh poster - says it all - GFS to far west in this set up with so much confluence over head

Disagree, Mugsy, respectfully, of course haha while yes it is there, the orientation is such that it will help slow the northward progression, not western. I think the GFS is actually on track with this, and this ends up as a coastal hugger, or thereabouts. If you wanted a more offshore track, the ridging would need to be stronger over the central CONUS, not the western Atlantic like we have. Just my humble opinion.

GFS notoriously chase its own tail and convection which it did hear - it went west at 102 and then jumped east at 108. Another met just wrote - GFS is gonna pop the low in the area of greatest upper level divergence occurs thus brings it inland instead of away. This where this model has issues. Track 4 days out is nothing we should be really discussing except we have a monster storm

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:32 am

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay before coastal folks freak teh freak and Jman as well - looka this map fromanoterh poster - says it all - GFS to far west in this set up with so much confluence over head

Disagree, Mugsy, respectfully, of course haha while yes it is there, the orientation is such that it will help slow the northward progression, not western. I think the GFS is actually on track with this, and this ends up as a coastal hugger, or thereabouts. If you wanted a more offshore track, the ridging would need to be stronger over the central CONUS, not the western Atlantic like we have. Just my humble opinion.
not what I wanna hear but it will b what it will hopefully I can squeeze out at least a foot. I'm about 15 miles inland but on that run doesn't look like that's far enough inland. Wouldn't a stronger lp keep warm air out and mske own cold?

No, the track is more important than the strength. If this somehow went 50 miles west of us we'd all got to rain even if it was a 970mb low.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:33 am

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
amugs wrote:Okay before coastal folks freak teh freak and Jman as well - looka this map fromanoterh poster - says it all - GFS to far west in this set up with so much confluence over head

Disagree, Mugsy, respectfully, of course haha while yes it is there, the orientation is such that it will help slow the northward progression, not western. I think the GFS is actually on track with this, and this ends up as a coastal hugger, or thereabouts. If you wanted a more offshore track, the ridging would need to be stronger over the central CONUS, not the western Atlantic like we have. Just my humble opinion.

GFS notoriously chase its own tail and convection which it did hear - it went west at 102 and then jumped east at 108. Another met just wrote - GFS is gonna pop the low in the area of greatest upper level divergence occurs thus brings it inland instead of away. This where this model has issues. Track 4 days out is nothing we should be really discussing except we have a monster storm

BINGO, Mugs said it all right there.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:56 am

NAVGEM = Roidzilla

by **SNOW MAN** Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:59 am

RJB8525 wrote:man..this is going to be some sleepless nights

Your not kidding ! I usually try and take a quick snooze at lunch time. I couldn't do it. I had to come back to this site to see what new information has been posted. It's definitely like being addicted to a drug. HOLY COW !

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:01 pm

I'm hearing from the other board that the GFS actually went east this run. The reason for the flip to rain in the city and coast was the result of a sloppy phase. The primary doesn't transfer fast enough which results in warm air intrusion. By the way I'm hearing the GEFS look great. I would toss this run of the GFS.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:04 pm

MADONNE - GFS ENSEMBLES EAST OF OP

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:08 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:I'm hearing from the other board that the GFS actually went east this run. The reason for the flip to rain in the city and coast was the result of a sloppy phase. The primary doesn't transfer fast enough which results in warm air intrusion. By the way I'm hearing the GEFS look great. I would toss this run of the GFS.

I can't dismiss it entirely since the operational has been taking this track 3 runs in a row now. I hear what you're saying tough and since the GEFS are mostly east of the operational that's a good sign. Now of course we don't want it much further east, maybe 30-40 miles but that's it.

So many runs yet till Monday night, thank goodness this weekend will be an hour shorter.

by **amugs** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:08 pm

GEFS ARE MINT BABY!!!!!!!!!
OP is wonky

by **lglickman1** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:10 pm

Does the pattern support this storm coming too close to the coast? Or is the GFS just off this run?

by **billg315** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:10 pm

There goes Frank with that 18 point Verdana bold MADONNE again. I would repeat what I said yesterday about its effect on me, but I don't want to set off that chain of conversation again. lol. I'll leave it at: this always gets me excited.

by **billg315** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:13 pm

As for exact track of the storm on the model runs 72 hours out. If we are going to allow our emotions and mental well-being to be controlled by each shift in track on every model run from now until Tuesday, I think we will all be in need of psychological counseling by the end of this weekend. Deep breaths. Deep breaths.

by **Dunnzoo** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:22 pm

billg315 wrote:As for exact track of the storm on the model runs 72 hours out. If we are going to allow our emotions and mental well-being to be controlled by each shift in track on every model run from now until Tuesday, I think we will all be in need of psychological counseling by the end of this weekend. Deep breaths. Deep breaths.

Not if we have an adult beverage handy as we track! drunken

by **billg315** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:26 pm

I'm all in favor of adult beverages to ease the roller coaster. Haha!

by **SoulSingMG** Fri Mar 10, 2017 12:28 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:MADONNE - GFS ENSEMBLES EAST OF OP

THIS IS KEY at this stage of the game!

by Sponsored content