Tracking Hurricane Irma
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Dis2cruise
lglickman1
Ram4wd
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42 posters
Page 33 of 35
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Dis2cruise wrote:Is it safe to say we might get a Long Island hit?
While it can't be completely ruled out at this time, it is extremely unlikely. Probably 15% or less
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
lets not all go crazy from the 18z gfs...its one model let Alone 1 run. Even on that run it heads nw after the carolinas and keeps us in the clear.
Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
syosnow94 wrote:18z GFS gives me a renewed sense of hope.
On the outside I am saying what the hell is wrong with you, dumbass.
On the inside I am agreeing 100% - a glimmer of hope. sick
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
I think Mugsy's acct was hacked. I can't find a reading of 906mb anywhere
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Well then....


aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
In Robert's Rules of Order, a second moves it to a vote to get a consensus of who agrees or not as a group. So I second what you said: "I also second this" <--as an agreement and not a vote. It is something like "me, too" as "me third" would sound a bit off.
Last edited by dkodgis on Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
aiannone wrote:Well then....
You see my post from earlier?
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
dkodgis wrote:In Robert's Rules of Order, a second moves it to a vote to get a consensus of who agrees or not as a group. So I second what you said: "I also second this" <--as an agreement and not a vote. It is something like "me, too" as "me third" would sound a bit off.
Soooooooo I was correct in my wording. Lol
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Sure did, might be onto something for sure. KING NAM lol. Been north all alongsroc4 wrote:aiannone wrote:Well then....
You see my post from earlier?
aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
East trend again by Hcane models as posted- windshield wiper effect in full mode here peeps.
No it was in teh NW wall by what recorded the 223mph winds at a few hundred feet
No it was in teh NW wall by what recorded the 223mph winds at a few hundred feet
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Mugs
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Hurricane models shift east

skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Sorry for double post
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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aiannone- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
SROC and other it was not a surface pressure but one a few hundred feet above in the NW EYE wall that had 223mph winds at this heightand other from mission#10
Dropsonde # 9. 196 kt just above surface and 167kt (192mph) at the surface
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA21011AIRMA
Dropsonde # 9. 196 kt just above surface and 167kt (192mph) at the surface
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA21011AIRMA
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Mugs
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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
These islands are going to be destroyed in her way even on the fringe for some!
I love to see the surge data and the wave heights!!
I love to see the surge data and the wave heights!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
914 in this last mission


_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
amugs wrote:Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.
What time is teh update? 11?
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
I believe somikeypizano wrote:amugs wrote:Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.
What time is teh update? 11?
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Still a long way off for the East Coast. But hopefully the models show some consistency by Friday because preparations for a storm like this will take several days, not hours. So the sooner we can narrow it down a bit the sooner that can begin in earnest. Right now the range of uncertainty (Fla. and Gulf to N.C.) is too broad for any one area to begin serious preparations.
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/irma-headed-toward-florida/hsdnzqyze6hz3tc4vpg00sohzxka0f3m?SearchForm-input=irma%20headed%20toward%20florida
bernie rayno
bernie rayno
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Not much to tell about the NAM at this point, too far out, but it the run were to keep going it looks like there's a pathway up the coast. Ridging in the Atlantic isn't too strong, trough still around. Atlantic Ridge and trough going to be a couple of big factors to look at over the next few days
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
11pm status quo- 185mph, 916 millibars, NHC sticking with a western track atm...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
If you want a flight out of Fla one way Cbs just said it was 1400.00 and Lonnie has no jacket on
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma
Barbuda:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CawG7IBm8p8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CawG7IBm8p8
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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