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Tracking Hurricane Irma

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Post by Grselig Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:30 pm

syosnow94 wrote:18z GFS gives me a renewed sense of hope.

On the outside I am saying what the hell is wrong with you, dumbass.
On the inside I am agreeing 100% - a glimmer of hope. sick
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:33 pm

I think Mugsy's acct was hacked. I can't find a reading of 906mb anywhere

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by aiannone Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:36 pm

Well then....
Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 11l_tr10
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Post by dkodgis Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:38 pm

In Robert's Rules of Order, a second moves it to a vote to get a consensus of who agrees or not as a group. So I second what you said:  "I also second this" <--as an agreement and not a vote. It is something like "me, too" as "me third" would sound a bit off.


Last edited by dkodgis on Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:39 pm

@aiannone wrote:Well then....
Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 11l_tr10

You see my post from earlier?

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:39 pm

@dkodgis wrote:In Robert's Rules of Order, a second moves it to a vote to get a consensus of who agrees or not as a group. So I second what you said:  "I also second this" <--as an agreement and not a vote. It is something like "me, too" as "me third" would sound a bit off.

Soooooooo I was correct in my wording. Lol

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by aiannone Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:44 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@aiannone wrote:Well then....
Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 11l_tr10

You see my post from earlier?
Sure did, might be onto something for sure. KING NAM lol. Been north all along
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:45 pm

East trend again by Hcane models as posted- windshield wiper effect in full mode here peeps.

No it was in teh NW wall by what recorded the 223mph winds at a few hundred feet


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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:50 pm

Hurricane models shift eastTracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 11l_tr10
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:50 pm

Sorry for double post
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Post by aiannone Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:00 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 Captur11
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:01 pm

SROC and other it was not a surface pressure but one a few hundred feet above in the NW EYE wall that had 223mph winds at this heightand other from mission#10

Dropsonde # 9. 196 kt just above surface and 167kt (192mph) at the surface
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA21011AIRMA

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:02 pm

These islands are going to be destroyed in her way even on the fringe for some!

I love to see the surge data and the wave heights!!

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:09 pm

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 59af4a3b43d81_irmahurricanehntrs.thumb.PNG.482ccd03cb4c5b8d9c7dc33f570bdf7d

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Post by amugs Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:20 pm

Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:22 pm

914 in this last mission

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 Recon_AF305-1111A-IRMA_zoom

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Post by mikeypizano Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:22 pm

@amugs wrote:Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.

What time is teh update? 11?
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Post by amugs Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:38 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:
@amugs wrote:Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.

What time is teh update? 11?
I believe so

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jake732 Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:50 pm

NAM running
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Post by billg315 Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:57 pm

Still a long way off for the East Coast. But hopefully the models show some consistency by Friday because preparations for a storm like this will take several days, not hours. So the sooner we can narrow it down a bit the sooner that can begin in earnest. Right now the range of uncertainty (Fla. and Gulf to N.C.) is too broad for any one area to begin serious preparations.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:59 pm

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/irma-headed-toward-florida/hsdnzqyze6hz3tc4vpg00sohzxka0f3m?SearchForm-input=irma%20headed%20toward%20florida
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Post by Sanchize06 Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:51 pm

Not much to tell about the NAM at this point, too far out, but it the run were to keep going it looks like there's a pathway up the coast. Ridging in the Atlantic isn't too strong, trough still around. Atlantic Ridge and trough going to be a couple of big factors to look at over the next few days

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Post by Radz Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:54 pm

11pm status quo- 185mph, 916 millibars, NHC sticking with a western track atm...
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:10 pm

If you want a flight out of Fla one way Cbs just said it was 1400.00 and Lonnie has no jacket on
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Post by Joe Snow Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:15 pm

Barbuda:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CawG7IBm8p8
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