Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

by **aiannone** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:29 pm

Dis2cruise wrote:Is it safe to say we might get a Long Island hit?

While it can't be completely ruled out at this time, it is extremely unlikely. Probably 15% or less

by **jake732** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:29 pm

lets not all go crazy from the 18z gfs...its one model let Alone 1 run. Even on that run it heads nw after the carolinas and keeps us in the clear.

by **Grselig** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:30 pm

syosnow94 wrote:18z GFS gives me a renewed sense of hope.

On the outside I am saying what the hell is wrong with you, dumbass.
On the inside I am agreeing 100% - a glimmer of hope. sick

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:33 pm

I think Mugsy's acct was hacked. I can't find a reading of 906mb anywhere

by **aiannone** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:36 pm

Well then....
Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 11l_tr10

by **dkodgis** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:38 pm

In Robert's Rules of Order, a second moves it to a vote to get a consensus of who agrees or not as a group. So I second what you said: "I also second this" <--as an agreement and not a vote. It is something like "me, too" as "me third" would sound a bit off.

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:39 pm

aiannone wrote:Well then....

You see my post from earlier?

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:39 pm

dkodgis wrote:In Robert's Rules of Order, a second moves it to a vote to get a consensus of who agrees or not as a group. So I second what you said: "I also second this" <--as an agreement and not a vote. It is something like "me, too" as "me third" would sound a bit off.

Soooooooo I was correct in my wording. Lol

by **aiannone** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
aiannone wrote:Well then....

You see my post from earlier?

Sure did, might be onto something for sure. KING NAM lol. Been north all along

by **amugs** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:45 pm

East trend again by Hcane models as posted- windshield wiper effect in full mode here peeps.

No it was in teh NW wall by what recorded the 223mph winds at a few hundred feet

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:50 pm

Hurricane models shift east Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 11l_tr10

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:50 pm

Sorry for double post

by **aiannone** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:00 pm

by **amugs** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:01 pm

SROC and other it was not a surface pressure but one a few hundred feet above in the NW EYE wall that had 223mph winds at this heightand other from mission#10

Dropsonde # 9. 196 kt just above surface and 167kt (192mph) at the surface
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA21011AIRMA

by **amugs** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:02 pm

These islands are going to be destroyed in her way even on the fringe for some!

I love to see the surge data and the wave heights!!

by **amugs** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:09 pm

by **amugs** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:20 pm

Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:22 pm

914 in this last mission

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 33 Recon_AF305-1111A-IRMA_zoom

by **mikeypizano** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:22 pm

amugs wrote:Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.

What time is teh update? 11?

by **amugs** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:38 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
amugs wrote:Next NHC update should be interesting. Question will they keep flying missions into this if it gets stronger - if yuo ask why they aborted mission into the eyewall for Gilbert and Tim since the cappy said the plane was shaking so violently he thought it was going to be torn apart. Same planes peeps and why risk their lives and teh equip for these readings.

What time is teh update? 11?

I believe so

by **jake732** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:50 pm

NAM running

by **billg315** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:57 pm

Still a long way off for the East Coast. But hopefully the models show some consistency by Friday because preparations for a storm like this will take several days, not hours. So the sooner we can narrow it down a bit the sooner that can begin in earnest. Right now the range of uncertainty (Fla. and Gulf to N.C.) is too broad for any one area to begin serious preparations.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:59 pm

https://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/irma-headed-toward-florida/hsdnzqyze6hz3tc4vpg00sohzxka0f3m?SearchForm-input=irma%20headed%20toward%20florida
bernie rayno

by **Sanchize06** Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:51 pm

Not much to tell about the NAM at this point, too far out, but it the run were to keep going it looks like there's a pathway up the coast. Ridging in the Atlantic isn't too strong, trough still around. Atlantic Ridge and trough going to be a couple of big factors to look at over the next few days

by **Radz** Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:54 pm

11pm status quo- 185mph, 916 millibars, NHC sticking with a western track atm...

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:10 pm

If you want a flight out of Fla one way Cbs just said it was 1400.00 and Lonnie has no jacket on

by **Joe Snow** Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:15 pm

Barbuda:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CawG7IBm8p8

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