Rocktober Obs/Discussions

JB

Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing

sroc4 wrote:Here are the 10m max wind gusts for the Euro, just for S's & G's.  Yes that is hurricane force wind gusts over the eastern end of LI and yes trop storm force winds over most of Nassau and all of Suffolk county.  Likely overdone, but a track a tad west of here with even half the wind speeds is significant for our area which is entirely possible.  

Wow yes not taken verbatim yet anyways.bwhy is western side so calm? And snow of course in would state exactly what sroc just said about possible west shift lol. I wrote him to make sure we get winds into the area. Nonetheless tons of rain and breezy if this track held. If I didn't have work I'd stay in eastern CT cuz I will be there sat into sun. Or is that a bad idea?

Amplification with the eastern trough late Saturday into Sunday is going to call for a partial or maybe full phase with southern energy that would lead to a powerful Nor'easter. As with any coastal storm we have to keep an eye on timing with the phase. It does look like there is a big ridge spike in the west. As long as there is not a piece of upper energy that swings into the west coast to try and smooth it out, we should see a formidable ridge-trough look over the CONUS this weekend. Very heavy rain and strong winds is the threat. We'll see what models say later today.

Frank your putting this Sat night into Sun? Models seem to show more Sun-Mon, reason I ask is because I am supposed to take a trip to eastern CT, which verbatim looks to get it pretty severe and I do not want to get stuck driving in it. I can cancel my plans up to Friday at midnight, so I guess I can wait a bit to see exact time frame. Do you see any westward shift possible, sroc and JB mentioned it. Good to see ya back, wish this was snow!!!

Both CMC and GFS are further east sparing the area from most impacts, lets see what euro shows, i havent got the pay euro so someone else will have to post it., does the typical westward trend start to show up at some pt. lol

EURO ENS

It's the 18Z but it is further east still lots of much needed rain and some good winds 20-35 mph for NNJ into LHV and NYC

UT

Rains

amugs wrote:EURO ENS

Wow there's some 960s in there! A cluster just to no or nw of NYC that b good spot for imby excitement. Still shows Sunday night late into Monday. Frank must have a reason he us saying sat to sun.

amugs wrote:It's the 18Z but it is further east still lots of much needed rain and some good winds 20-35 mph for NNJ into LHV and NYC

UT

Too far east none of the euro ensembles are anywhere near that far east. Mugs u got the wxbell operational run? And wind map. Shoot I guess time for me resubscribe.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:It's the 18Z but it is further east still lots of much needed rain and some good winds 20-35 mph for NNJ into LHV and NYC

UT

Too far east none of the euro ensembles are anywhere near that far east. Mugs u got the wxbell operational run? And wind map. Shoot I guess time for me resubscribe.

Typical GFS SE bias.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:It's the 18Z but it is further east still lots of much needed rain and some good winds 20-35 mph for NNJ into LHV and NYC

UT

Too far east none of the euro ensembles are anywhere near that far east. Mugs u got the wxbell operational run? And wind map. Shoot I guess time for me resubscribe.

Typical GFS SE bias.

Lol that's what I said earlier does thise start to go back west? I think it mayy be at it's furthest east so history usually does the west thing. Euro looks like it may have the right idea from the get go.

18z GEFS is further west compared to the op

There's already a lot chatter on the web but no media hype yet. Give it a day or two.

Tony you stealing my thunder there kid on the phase 8 JB quote!!!??

skinsfan1177 wrote:

Madonne!! Wow just crazy. Do u have the total precip map?

I'm hearing UK met is pulling a libexpress 974 mb. Also euro is 970s and center right over or just barely west of NYC.

UKIE a Tucked beast

Wow mugs ukie is the UK met yes? I saw maps showing similar intensity rain and wind to euro.

Does anybody have any idea with the timing of the event looks like

skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anybody have any idea with the timing of the event looks like

Well frank as yopu can see says sat into sun which would wreak my plans so it better be a good storm. But the models show sunday late afternoon/evening into monday. If those kind of winds get into NYC there will be major travel disruptions and prolly no above group transit, i would expect a lotof trees down too, but thats pure speculation going verbatim on what Euro and Ukie show, GFS IMO will back west to be more in line with Euro Ukie and even CMC is a bit further west. And as said last night the GFS operational is east of the ensembles. Not far off so we will hopefully have a good idea in the next day or two. Thank god this is no 10-15 day tracker lol

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anybody have any idea with the timing of the event looks like

Well frank as yopu can see says sat into sun which would wreak my plans so it better be a good storm.  But the models show sunday late afternoon/evening into monday. If those kind of winds get into NYC there will be major travel disruptions and prolly no above group transit, i would expect a lotof trees down too, but thats pure speculation going verbatim on what Euro and Ukie show, GFS IMO will back west to be more in line with Euro Ukie and even CMC is a bit further west.  And as said last night the GFS operational is east of the ensembles.  Not far off so we will hopefully have a good idea in the next day or two.  Thank god this is no 10-15 day tracker lol

Yeah jman I have been seeing Sunday/Monday timeframe on other boards. I'm just curious bc I'm going camping down in cape may Fri-sun

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anybody have any idea with the timing of the event looks like

Well frank as yopu can see says sat into sun which would wreak my plans so it better be a good storm.  But the models show sunday late afternoon/evening into monday. If those kind of winds get into NYC there will be major travel disruptions and prolly no above group transit, i would expect a lotof trees down too, but thats pure speculation going verbatim on what Euro and Ukie show, GFS IMO will back west to be more in line with Euro Ukie and even CMC is a bit further west.  And as said last night the GFS operational is east of the ensembles.  Not far off so we will hopefully have a good idea in the next day or two.  Thank god this is no 10-15 day tracker lol

Yeah jman I have been seeing Sunday/Monday timeframe on other boards. I'm just curious bc I'm going camping down in cape may Fri-sun

I'd cut it short early Sunday morning if this still looks big by tomorrow, like sroc said Sunday into Monday.

sroc4 wrote:I'm pretty sure we are looking at a Sunday event, maybe into early Monday.  Sat looks fine to me.  Frank may have been referring to the trough amplification taking place on Sat but the moisture doesn't look to get here until at least Sunday am.  Maybe a little earlier the further west you are.

Sounds right, Scott, if I am going to be in eastern CT till midday sunday and not home till late afternoon I would probably be hitting this at a bad time correct? I may have to cancel my over night plans to CT. Are those winds on the Euro fathomable? I know we have seen many times they do not pan out, but when they do they pack a punch, to see 00z Euro is even more concerning for nearly everyone from LI to NYC, westchester especially southern, and parts of jersey, though everyone sees 50 mph gusts pretty much verbatim. I guess we cannot really take the wind maps seriously until maybe when we see the system evolving or more than just a few runs showing this? What was the euro total rainfall for area, the 6 hr was posted but this lasts for more than 6 hrs I presume, I am going to get my wxbell back (need for winter, or I will drive you up the wall asking for maps lol, anyways.) Do you think the Euro and Ukie are more right basically over or just to east or west of NYC or the GFS and CMC? Seems Euro has not wavered much on placement.