Rocktober Obs/Discussions

skinsfan1177 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Does anybody have any idea with the timing of the event looks like

Well frank as yopu can see says sat into sun which would wreak my plans so it better be a good storm.  But the models show sunday late afternoon/evening into monday. If those kind of winds get into NYC there will be major travel disruptions and prolly no above group transit, i would expect a lotof trees down too, but thats pure speculation going verbatim on what Euro and Ukie show, GFS IMO will back west to be more in line with Euro Ukie and even CMC is a bit further west.  And as said last night the GFS operational is east of the ensembles.  Not far off so we will hopefully have a good idea in the next day or two.  Thank god this is no 10-15 day tracker lol

Yeah jman I have been seeing Sunday/Monday timeframe on other boards. I'm just curious bc I'm going camping down in cape may Fri-sun

I'd cut it short early Sunday morning if this still looks big by tomorrow, like sroc said Sunday into Monday.

sroc4 wrote:I'm pretty sure we are looking at a Sunday event, maybe into early Monday.  Sat looks fine to me.  Frank may have been referring to the trough amplification taking place on Sat but the moisture doesn't look to get here until at least Sunday am.  Maybe a little earlier the further west you are.

Sounds right, Scott, if I am going to be in eastern CT till midday sunday and not home till late afternoon I would probably be hitting this at a bad time correct? I may have to cancel my over night plans to CT. Are those winds on the Euro fathomable? I know we have seen many times they do not pan out, but when they do they pack a punch, to see 00z Euro is even more concerning for nearly everyone from LI to NYC, westchester especially southern, and parts of jersey, though everyone sees 50 mph gusts pretty much verbatim. I guess we cannot really take the wind maps seriously until maybe when we see the system evolving or more than just a few runs showing this? What was the euro total rainfall for area, the 6 hr was posted but this lasts for more than 6 hrs I presume, I am going to get my wxbell back (need for winter, or I will drive you up the wall asking for maps lol, anyways.) Do you think the Euro and Ukie are more right basically over or just to east or west of NYC or the GFS and CMC? Seems Euro has not wavered much on placement.

amugs wrote:UKIE a Tucked beast

Yeah baby! Bring her in! Need some excitement around here been basically 6+ months of boring weather for me anyways.

This would be a sick KU type storm if it were D-F
N WPO, EPO, P PNA and a North Atlantic Rex Block!!


BTW - Jim Witt has a Nor"easter/East Coast storm on his long range calendar for 10-30
and.....................12-22 , 2-3 timeframes - +/- 3 days - BOOYAHHH!

amugs wrote:This would be a sick KU type storm if it were D-F
N WPO, EPO, P PNA and a North Atlantic Rex Block!!


BTW - Jim Witt has a Nor"easter/East Coast storm on his long range calendar for 10-30
and.....................12-22 , 2-3 timeframes - +/- 3 days - BOOYAHHH!

That is one heck of a deep trough, no wonder it pulls up that tropical mass.  Man it would be a epic blizzard if it were winter. By the looks of that this may not even be done with how strong this system could be if we get a full phase, and that looks very possible with it scooping right up coast. Just do not it too far east, I need to fly lol

see jon isn't more fun tracking nor'easters than hurricanes. much higher probability of hitting us. those wave breaks in the pacific that mugs and I have been talking about has really amplified the pattern. sometimes we do not need a -nao just ridging in the right places. plus we fare far better when the nao is moving from +/- or vise versa than a consistently -neg one. wave breaks in the pac should continue for the foreseeable future so expect more storminess to continue for awhile. on a winter note if the pac stays like this we will have a great winter!

algae888 wrote:see jon isn't more fun tracking nor'easters than hurricanes. much higher probability of hitting us. those wave breaks in the pacific that mugs and I have been talking about has really amplified the pattern. sometimes we do not need a -nao just ridging in the right places. plus we fare far better when the nao is moving from +/-  or vise versa than a consistently  -neg one. wave breaks in the pac should continue for the foreseeable future so expect more storminess to continue for awhile. on a winter note if the pac stays like this we will have a great winter!

In terms of having more hope for a big storm yes, though I still like to track all systems but yes, plus these are not so unpredictable and drawn out. Well I guess they can be if shows up consistently in LR then we all go weenie and start tracking which is ironic cuz if its the tropics, like you for instance think its bogus lol, snow bias

OMG!!!!!!!EURO DROPS THE MIC ON US JESUS!!!





Temp goes from 68 to 45 in 6 hours at knyc with 60+mph wind gusts

HOLY POOP 974 over western jersey that is serious peeps!! BIG TIME

Do i have to drive home for this lol or should i stay in Binghamton?

YIKES!!!!!!!!!!

wow on euro...

it looks as if winds will be stronger on backside of system Monday morning

Started a thread

WIND MAN JMAN FA YU!!

amugs wrote:WIND MAN JMAN FA YU!!

My bad I hit report on this opps. Of course it's going b while I'm at work looks get stronger later in day so maybe I'll still bbable catch some good eind to watch. No real window at work.

Looking at the temperatures from the first 26 days of October and looking at the next few days to end October, this could very well break the record for the warmest October for CPK.

October 2017 was the warmest October on record for Central Park going back to 1869.

It finished with an average temperature at 64.1, 7.2 degrees above normal and 0.5 degrees above the old record of 63.6 set in both 1947 and 2007.

Math23x7 wrote:October 2017 was the warmest October on record for Central Park going back to 1869.

It finished with an average temperature at 64.1, 7.2 degrees above normal and 0.5 degrees above the old record of 63.6 set in both 1947 and 2007.

Only 3 below normal days during Oct in Central Park. Oct 1st (-3.1), 17th (-6.4) and 31st (-1.4).

Meanwhile it had 13 days of departures of +10 or more. Including a 7 consecutive day stretch.
4 days w/highs in the 80s.
A lot of mild nights, 12 60+ low temps including 2 days with lows 70+.