Re: Rocktober Obs/Discussions

by **amugs** Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:01 pm

algae888 wrote:
amugs wrote:Low solar and East based QBO has a tenda to equal HL blocking.
Yes mugs lets hope so. Most mets on other boards not calling this set up blocking. Just ridging over greenland which they expect will be transient. Any how ridging looks to last on ensembles for 5+ days. Lets see if it can hold or re establish again quickly. Ill take that look any day in winter. Strong east coast storm signal there.

Just for you namesake pizano!!

by **amugs** Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:18 pm

Wow on the MJO in phase 5!!
This is crazy strong.
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 3 Rmm_ph10

Here is the effects cold in East

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 3 Combin10

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:54 am

41° this morning

by **frank 638** Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:33 am

Morning low of 43*

by **algae888** Tue Oct 17, 2017 5:41 am

38 lowest reading this fall so far

by **docstox12** Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:28 am

First frost up here.My temp sensor for my weather unit is on the bum but it had to be freezing or a bit below.Sunny day ahead.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:55 am

I registered 42* tis mornin for me low.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:09 am

Phase 5 for Rocktober - Get out da woolies!

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 3 DMViSntWsAMyLl0

by **Dtone** Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:19 am

low 43 for me this morning.

by **amugs** Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:51 am

Here it comes next week

Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 3 DMVt_xOW0AAj9oW

by **algae888** Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:18 am

amugs wrote:Here it comes next week

Yes mugs the wave break and the MJ pulse into 5 and if guidance is correct near record mjo pulse you can expect a East Coast storm sometime next week. Very likely rain and wind but don't discount a few flakes especially Northwest of here and probably a good bet that New England sees their first snow next week

by **Snow88** Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:18 am

Every model shows a deep trough . Have to see if a storm comes up the coast with the modeled trough.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:47 am

amugs wrote:
I registered 42* tis mornin for me low.

Heat wave for you, I had 32* and some frost on my car geek

by **aiannone** Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:49 am

43.6* for the morning low here on the island. Wind never died down so temp stayed up there. Currently 49.1*

by **amugs** Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:57 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:
I registered 42* tis mornin for me low.

Heat wave for you, I had 32* and some frost on my car

Your pullin me chain sista really?? No frost on me veehikle tis morin at 6:30!!

ANyways giv ethis look from D - M and we will be dancing like its 95-96 LOL!
Rocktober Obs/Discussions - Page 3 F216

by **jmanley32** Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:16 am

Snow88 wrote:Every model shows a deep trough . Have to see if a storm comes up the coast with the modeled trough.

The tropics shows a storm for several runs now drawn up and into the coast by GFS, yes I understand its in very LR but lets see what happens.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:23 am

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:
I registered 42* tis mornin for me low.

Heat wave for you, I had 32* and some frost on my car

Your pullin me chain sista really?? No frost on me veehikle tis morin at 6:30!!

Haha, I'm gonna get snow and you won't! You have your own heat island up there!

by **amugs** Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:05 pm

Al here comes the storm with this set up.

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:37 pm

40 degrees this morning...real feel was 37 LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by **frank 638** Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:22 am

Not as chilly as yesterday morning . morning low of 51* I cannot wait till next week for our pattern change

by **amugs** Wed Oct 18, 2017 4:25 pm

Deeper trough that first shown -
see ho wthe N retrogardes further and is deeper pumping the PNA (Ridge in the west)

Old run

by **frank 638** Wed Oct 18, 2017 6:41 pm

lee goldberg was talking about our pattern change it looks like we will have more cooler shots with more rain chances starting on tues . after that around the last week of oct we will have temps in the 50s .its about time i am getting tired of this warm and boring pattern

by **docstox12** Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:57 pm

This is one of the worst Autumns for color I have ever seen.This 8 degree above normal pattern has wreaked havoc.75% of the trees are still green and the ones with color are dull .Just awful.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:05 pm

will that system that cuts west of us on Wed give us some high winds? GFS is showing 850mb winds 65kts plus, but theres not a whole lot of precip so would any of it mix down?

And is there any merit to the CMC showing quite a major wind and rain event next Friday? Shows 5-7 inches of rain and again 65kt 850mb winds.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:07 pm

Well I just saw the Euro, and it looks like it supports the CMC, GFS doesnt really have the same at the surface.

by **algae888** Fri Oct 20, 2017 4:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:will that system that cuts west of us on Wed give us some high winds? GFS is showing 850mb winds 65kts plus, but theres not a whole lot of precip so would any of it mix down?

And is there any merit to the CMC showing quite a major wind and rain event next Friday? Shows 5-7 inches of rain and again 65kt 850mb winds.

jon definite pattern change on the way. much more active with the higher heights over Alaska and Greenland which look to last on the ensembles. east coast storm very possible.

by **Dtone** Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:04 am

docstox12 wrote:This is one of the worst Autumns for color I have ever seen.This 8 degree above normal pattern has wreaked havoc.75% of the trees are still green and the ones with color are dull .Just awful.

Yeah, peak color should getting into central and southern Westchester county by now. Was around I-287 and while more color than the city it is still quite green for late Oct. 5 boros forget it, if you pay attention you can find some pockets of color but it is still overwhelmingly green as can be.

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