Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Agreed however it's focusing on the last wave which the other models have not picked up on still got to take into consideration that it is the 84 hour namSnow88 wrote:Accumulating snow down gets to the coast
Great run
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Shift it west by around 50 miles so I get something, and I will be a happy penguin...
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
A lot of snow for Georgia and the Mid Atlantic
A few inches up here
Nice
A few inches up here
Nice
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
algae888 wrote:Agreed however it's focusing on the last wave which the other models have not picked up on still got to take into consideration that it is the 84 hour namSnow88 wrote:Accumulating snow down gets to the coast
Great run
Al I dont think its focusing on a diufferent wave; rather its handling the S energy diff than the two globals. Its holding back energy in the base of the trough vs the stringing it all out. The focusing of the energy is key in that the stronger the energy in the base of the trough the higher the heights out in front.
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Ok scott that makes sense I'm just noticing that it's much slower than the globals thought it was a different wave as there look to be several interacting with the front
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
another thing to keep in mind is that we're going to need to see pretty good snow rates if it's during the day time as temperatures will be marginal. Otherwise it's white rain let's hope we get the snow first and then it comes at night
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
algae888 wrote: another thing to keep in mind is that we're going to need to see pretty good snow rates if it's during the day time as temperatures will be marginal. Otherwise it's white rain let's hope we get the snow first and then it comes at night
Great point. I would really like to see the GFS and or euro jump aboard. To some degree the CMC shifted that way at 00z overnight. But a single run does not a trend make.
00Z CMC
12z CMC yesterday:
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
From a super weenie
NAM closes off the VORT and allows it to dig while as Scott said the other models have it strung out. If it were about 6 hours faster it could have more upside to being a significant storm for the NY metro area for December BUT I am not saying that and just being cautiously optimistic here. Another set of runs today and through 6Z tomorrow before the energy gets sampled in the North Country! Interesting set up to say the least,
NAM closes off the VORT and allows it to dig while as Scott said the other models have it strung out. If it were about 6 hours faster it could have more upside to being a significant storm for the NY metro area for December BUT I am not saying that and just being cautiously optimistic here. Another set of runs today and through 6Z tomorrow before the energy gets sampled in the North Country! Interesting set up to say the least,
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
JB-
"Further north the storm is Saturday into Saturday night and so the NAM is covering the entire storm, but I would watch for a shift west a bit. Ensembles will naturally try to run away in the means from the westward shift, but early in the season with a tight boundary and a warm ocean argues for the shift west"
"Further north the storm is Saturday into Saturday night and so the NAM is covering the entire storm, but I would watch for a shift west a bit. Ensembles will naturally try to run away in the means from the westward shift, but early in the season with a tight boundary and a warm ocean argues for the shift west"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
jake732 wrote:gfs comng in same as 6z so far
Isn't the GFS technically out of range at this point and we should focus on the short range models now?
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
12z GFS noticeably west of 0z but still not like the nam
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
does the sun angle have any part in a storm during this time of year?
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Anyone have any of the snow maps for the nam or gfs
track17- Posts : 454
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Cmc is a great hot
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Peeps,
Problem with this system and the GFS bias is it is not handling the Southern Jet well and really doesn't do well with such storms IMO. The JET Structure is just west of NWNJ which woudl promote snow shield to move further west. I could be wrong but not seeing the phase - it keeps everything strung out - CMC, JMA, UKIE and NAM along with RGEM all have a consolidated storm at this point oh and lets not forget the NAVY (NAVGEM!!) Ned the EURO to show some sort of phase at 12Z to give credence and support to this. Also GEFS are west of OP as Al pointed out so that is red flag to the OP.
GGEM/CMC OOHHH CANADA!!
Problem with this system and the GFS bias is it is not handling the Southern Jet well and really doesn't do well with such storms IMO. The JET Structure is just west of NWNJ which woudl promote snow shield to move further west. I could be wrong but not seeing the phase - it keeps everything strung out - CMC, JMA, UKIE and NAM along with RGEM all have a consolidated storm at this point oh and lets not forget the NAVY (NAVGEM!!) Ned the EURO to show some sort of phase at 12Z to give credence and support to this. Also GEFS are west of OP as Al pointed out so that is red flag to the OP.
GGEM/CMC OOHHH CANADA!!
Last edited by amugs on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:33 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
The placement of the 250mb jet streak will be key in how far N & W the precip shield can expand.
CMC vs GFS
CMC vs GFS
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
^^^^Scott thanks for posting the JET Structure that I pointed out
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
amugs wrote:^^^^Scott thanks for posting the JET Structure that I pointed out
You bet. Here it is again: For some reason weather bell has different color schemes for CMC and GFS so here is the Trop tidbits. Its much more clear as to how much further N it is on the CMC
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
RJB8525 wrote:does the sun angle have any part in a storm during this time of year?
Sun angle is no longer an issue. Lowest sun angle occurs on the winter solstice which is only 15 days away. Sun angle now is equivalent to sun angle on Jan 5th.
A bigger issue may be boundary layer that has been warm and may be slight above freezing due to win direction coming off the warmer waters at least initally. Weak LP preceeds the precip shield where out in front of the waves of LP may be SE and E for a time. These details will be ironed out once we get in closer. How heavy the precip actually falls, dew points, strength of system, position etc all will play a role.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Wow NAVGEM is Godzilla
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
I do not have the precipitation panels yet but the ukie looks fantastic 1001 MilliBar low right on the North Carolina South Carolina coastal border ends up right off the coast of Maine 983 millibar. Looks fantastic but hard to tell without in between panels
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Just throwing out there for some reason weekend storms work out. Do some research about it bec I’ve noticed for years already.
Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
Precipitation map only goes out to hour 72 it looks just like the CMC maybe a tad stronger about .1 to .25 liquid equivalent with the heaviest stuff yet to come over .5 in Southern and central New Jersey that's for the UK met
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
This whole set up reminds me a lot of last January 7, when the coast got a nice little storm. Seems to be the same type of 2 wave, will they or won't they, type of deal.
Pretty sure last time the short range models were quicker to pick up on it than the long range were. So, that makes me hopeful at the moment. Still a ways to go, but it's a fun track right now for the Coasties.
Pretty sure last time the short range models were quicker to pick up on it than the long range were. So, that makes me hopeful at the moment. Still a ways to go, but it's a fun track right now for the Coasties.
SENJsnowman- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Possible Snowstorm December 8th-9th
UKIEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
Precip Maps - this is a very nice look - lets see what the EURO does here
Precip Maps - this is a very nice look - lets see what the EURO does here
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