December 9th Storm - Snow Map

Scullybutcher wrote:Hate to be that guy but, looking at the radar is this thing going to bust?

Sculls I’m with you. I’m worried. Yes I saw what sroc4 posted and I trust him but snow was supposed to start around 6 am. It’s 5:15 and the radar is absolutely empty over all of Jersey save for a flurry or two. Not gonna lie. IM GOING BACK TO BED BUT IM WORRIED. HOPE sRoc is right.

I just looked at a radar and nothing in nj. At all the whole day. Did this move east because it is obvious we are not getting anything based on the future radar I looked at kinda sad. The Mets and models messed up bad here.

I'm not worried when looking at the radar down south all the way to the gulf you can see the western side of the system filling in.

Looking at the current radar I see the precip way off shore., not calling it a miss. But hopefully it pulls north.

What worries me skins is it was suppose to start at 1 am it is now 6 am. Not trying to see a downer it just seems we have seen this before and mean we are like 12 hrs off of start time by the time it starts. I hope your right. I just have trouble trusting the Pro Mets they are terrible. I trust you though

Fear not. Looks like she’s starting to fill the radar in

But why the delay I mean this is crazy how one of a delay we are talking

I'm not sure I didn't think it was starting until late morning to begin with

The hourly last night said midnight again though that was the pro Mets who are terrible. I trust you and if you say we still have a chance I believe you

track17 wrote:The hourly last night said midnight again though that was the pro Mets who are terrible. I trust you and if you say we still have a chance I believe you

I think 3-6 is fair I think Frank's map was good for the area

Ok I was confused not by people here but you turn on the tv and they say starting at 12 am thanks for the help

Track, from what I can see it's gonna start later, but then hit hard for a while. Noon - 9 pm should be rockin'. We'll see...

The scroll clearly says snow will start around 6 AM. Predicting the start of Mother Nature is no science. The radar is clearly filling in as the storm progresses as forecasted - perhaps just a tad later than expected but still as forecasted.

Great I trust you guys. I wish you guys would work at the weather channel or nws. People would be less confused

Start time was never supposed to be before daybreak. With a cold, dry airmass and some lower dew points any lead precipitation was going to be virga and not reach the ground, rather try to moisten the atmosphere. Also, the lead low was always supposed to sort of slide a bit S and E. The last 6, 8? Runs of the NAM have shown the real low coming a bit later and almost looking like the precip wouldn’t make it back W...and then it blossoms. I think if the radar isn’t filling in with actual snow reaching the ground by say 10am then maybe were in a slight amount of trouble. I also think this is something better forecasters (like here) considered when they went with a high end of 3-6 rather that 6-8/10 like some guidance showed and many Mets followed. Just my 2 cents. Think most are still in line for a widespread 3+ event.

I've been worried about mixing, but that doesn't appear to be an issue any where in NJ

The issue I see is that it may not stick to roads right away more like grassy areas. We shall see any snow is good snow and this is a great start to the year. I would also like to know and understand snow growth. Because that seems to be a issue with this storm. Any one that has knowledge on it fire away

Not sure that's what I'm asking I have heard that snow growth isn't great with this storm it has to do with reading the soundings and stuff way beyond my knowledge. Not that we are getting less than is predicted but we could of done better

What do you mean by snow growth skins are you less confident?

Radar has looked a little ragged but it is now filling in over MD and VA. That is a sign of the storm beginning to come together and organize. It is true that snowstorms starting later than expected or having a delayed onset is always an early-warning sign for me that something  might be off, but I'm not sure it's a red flag in this case. A delayed start would worry me more if it was due to virga (I.e. Storm was here but snow was not reaching the ground) than the storm just organizing a little later, which could push back the end time as easily as the start. I would still keep an eye on temps though. With marginally cold temps it can be a big deal for snow to start falling and accumulating pre-dawn. Once it's daylight if the temp hits 32/33 you're likely to see a lot of wet pavement at the outset. This is an even bigger factor when the sun is stronger in Feb./March storms, but I am concerned that by the time it starts snowing it will be daylight and maybe above freezing.

Looks like radar is filling in which is a good sign.NWS notorious for getting start and end times wrong, seen that a lot over the years.Doc's analysis earlier this evening sounds good as well.

skinsfan1177 wrote:The issue I see is that it may not stick to roads right away more like grassy areas. We shall see any snow is good snow and this is a great start to the year. I would also like to know and understand snow growth. Because that seems to be a issue with this storm. Any one that has knowledge on it fire away

Not sure that's what I'm asking I have heard that snow growth isn't great with this storm it has to do with reading the soundings and stuff way beyond my knowledge. Not that we are getting less than is predicted but we could of done better

Snow growth is dependent upon two things: how much forcing for ascent is there (I.E. how strong is the vertical motion and it's ability to produce precipitation?), and what's the thermal profile within the zone of strongest forcing for vertical ascent? Where the strongest vertical motion overlaps the most ideal part of the thermal profile will determine the degree of snow growth. I can't go into any more detail than that right now, skins, but I can do a more detailed write-up later about this to better explain. It gets tricky too, because crystal formation habits play a role, and this is where you hear things about the dendritic growth zone. If that is maximized, then you're in great shape for a good snow event.

Light flurries in Bayville (confirmed by my 4 year old). 35 degrees

rb924119 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:The issue I see is that it may not stick to roads right away more like grassy areas. We shall see any snow is good snow and this is a great start to the year. I would also like to know and understand snow growth. Because that seems to be a issue with this storm. Any one that has knowledge on it fire away

Not sure that's what I'm asking I have heard that snow growth isn't great with this storm it has to do with reading the soundings and stuff way beyond my knowledge. Not that we are getting less than is predicted but we could of done better

Snow growth is dependent upon two things: how much forcing for ascent is there (I.E. how strong is the vertical motion and it's ability to produce precipitation?), and what's the thermal profile within the zone of strongest forcing for vertical ascent? Where the strongest vertical motion overlaps the most ideal part of the thermal profile will determine the degree of snow growth. I can't go into any more detail than that right now, skins, but I can do a more detailed write-up later about this to better explain. It gets tricky too, because crystal formation habits play a role, and this is where you hear things about the dendritic growth zone. If that is maximized, then you're in great shape for a good snow event.

Thanks rb awesome I look forward to it. Also if you can is it true that snow growth for this storm is bad and how do read soundings to know thanks

Flurries in Toms River skins looks like you were right as usual thanks again

track17 wrote:Flurries in Toms River skins looks like you were right as usual thanks again

Now lets get it to come down good. I think this afternoon it gets cranking I hope.

track17 wrote:Flurries in Toms River skins looks like you were right as usual thanks again

Now lets get it to come down good. I think this afternoon it gets cranking I hope.

Flakes have started here in Westchester