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January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:01 am

6z NAM

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Snku_acc.us_ne

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:01 am

But its on its own right now no other guidance supports that.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:06 am

06z NAM and 06z RAP with impressive runs. I mean, complete turnaround. NAM snow map posted above. Here is the RAP.

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Acsnw_t3sfc_f39

I hope they're onto something but latest GFS is calling BS. Would somehow love to see these runs hold at 12z.

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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:08 am

Omg what a great way to wake up am I dreaming this is great

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:09 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:06z NAM and 06z RAP with  impressive runs. I mean, complete turnaround. NAM snow map posted above. Here is the RAP.

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Acsnw_t3sfc_f39

I hope they're onto something but latest GFS is calling BS. Would somehow love to see these runs hold at 12z.
Agree frank 12z lets see if man holds. Also yes the GFS didn't jump but it looked like it wanted to looked more west to me
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:10 am

NEW RGEM!
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Eaf14410
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 D1996210
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Post by sroc4 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:12 am

Frank the NAM/RAP soln will likely verify because I missed my flight home tonight. I now fly out tonight at 10:30 Hawaii time and scheduled to land Thursday late afternoon at JFK. My connection flight out of LAX will probably get canceled and I’ll miss the whole thing. I will suck it it up and take one for the team and get stuck in LA. Your welcome everyone.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:15 am

6z RGEM

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Snku_acc.us_ne

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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:16 am

@sroc4 wrote:Frank the NAM/RAP soln will likely verify because I missed my flight home tonight. I now fly out tonight at 10:30 Hawaii time and scheduled to land Thursday late afternoon at JFK. My connection flight out of LAX will probably get canceled and I’ll miss the whole thing. I will suck it it up and take one for the team and get stuck in LA. Your welcome everyone.
told ya

Sroc that is quite the sacrifice thank you
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:28 am

@sroc4 wrote:Frank the NAM/RAP soln will likely verify because I missed my flight home tonight. I now fly out tonight at 10:30 Hawaii time and scheduled to land Thursday late afternoon at JFK. My connection flight out of LAX will probably get canceled and I’ll miss the whole thing. I will suck it it up and take one for the team and get stuck in LA. Your welcome everyone.
told ya

Hawaii is not a bad place to miss a flight.

@Sanchize06 wrote:6z RGEM

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Snku_acc.us_ne
.

Getting there...? Maybe

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:33 am

The NAM snowmap gave me echoes of BDB. I am thinking this one will have an insane cutoff as well. Models trending stronger in areas that get consistent precip, but less on the periphery. Those of us NW of 95, keep our expectations mild. As I said the other night I still like the immediate NJ coast and LI for highest accumulations, only difference now is there is possibility for 6-12"+ there. Man I wish it would trend just another 50-100 miles west and we're all in the slam zone, but it seems pretty stubborn on BM or just outside.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:34 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Frank the NAM/RAP soln will likely verify because I missed my flight home tonight. I now fly out tonight at 10:30 Hawaii time and scheduled to land Thursday late afternoon at JFK. My connection flight out of LAX will probably get canceled and I’ll miss the whole thing. I will suck it it up and take one for the team and get stuck in LA. Your welcome everyone.
told ya

Hawaii is not a bad place to miss a flight.

@Sanchize06 wrote:6z RGEM

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Snku_acc.us_ne
.

Getting there...? Maybe

It looks better precip wise, but who knows haha The NAM was beautiful. Closed low earlier, cleaner phase. And finally the surface showed it.

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Post by Carter bk Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:36 am

What are the chance the 6z is correct

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:36 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:The NAM snowmap gave me  echoes of BDB. I am thinking this one will have an insane cutoff as well. Models trending stronger in areas that get consistent precip, but less on the periphery. Those of us NW of 95, keep our expectations mild. As I said the other night I still like the immediate NJ coast and LI for highest accumulations, only difference now is there is possibility for 6-12"+ there. Man I wish it would trend just another 50-100 miles west and we're all in the slam zone, but it seems pretty stubborn on BM or just outside.

Agreed. Hi-Res RGEM shows exactly this. More on the coast, but sharper cut off NW of 95

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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:37 am

6z HRDPS

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Hrdps_asnow_neus_42

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:50 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:I am losing my sh*t

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 3d8bde10

If this Nam scenario pans out, rb will be nominated the new Snow King of OTI!!! His video explained in detail this very scenario working out.Stay tuned!
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:54 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:3k NAM. Cp. you should be waking right about now. If the NAM is correct MADONNE!  

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 26f90410
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 216e7e10

Wow that's at 10:1 it be more like 15:1 that's 3 feet here

Boxing Day II
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:56 am

@sroc4 wrote:3k NAM. Cp. you should be waking right about now. If the NAM is correct MADONNE!  

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 26f90410
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 216e7e10

Awake for the last half hour trying to digest it. Speechless really. Went to bed thinking 2-4 was my best case five hours later I have 14 and 18 over my house. Again just mostly NMA but even RAP is 6-8. Don’t know what to think at this point except hoping for a boxing type scenario repeat. Is that even possible? I’ll take half a Boxing Day and run with it.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:01 am

NWS sounds like an ambulance chasing lawyer in a cheap suit waffling all over the place this morning,LOL.It could be less, it could be more , it could be MUCH more.Looks like they are buying more into that latest NAM run.If we get bombed as rb suggested in his videos, it;s going to be a riot watching them chase up the snow totals as the day progresses.
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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:03 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:3k NAM. Cp. you should be waking right about now. If the NAM is correct MADONNE!  

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 26f90410
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 216e7e10

Awake for the last half hour trying to digest it. Speechless really. Went to bed thinking 2-4 was my best case five hours later I have 14 and 18 over my house. Again just mostly NMA but even RAP is 6-8. Don’t know what to think at this point except hoping for a boxing type scenario repeat. Is that even possible? I’ll take half a Boxing Day and run with it.

CP, this is like being in the bottom of the ninth, Yanks down 4-1 with Stanton up with the bases loaded.One jack and its a WIN.Swing and a miss on a 3-2 count, you go home sad,lol!
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:04 am

Just remember everyone if this does pan out this Scott sacrificing himself for others.

There is no greater gift than to lay down once’s snow experience so that others snow experience may live.
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Post by Sanchize06 Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:07 am

Mt Holly clearly unsure about me here in Monmouth county as everyone else has either been upgraded to a WSW or placed under a WWA. Still a watch for now

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Phi

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:11 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:3k NAM. Cp. you should be waking right about now. If the NAM is correct MADONNE!  

January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 26f90410
January 4th Snowstorm: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 216e7e10

Awake for the last half hour trying to digest it. Speechless really. Went to bed thinking 2-4 was my best case five hours later I have 14 and 18 over my house. Again just mostly NMA but even RAP is 6-8. Don’t know what to think at this point except hoping for a boxing type scenario repeat. Is that even possible? I’ll take half a Boxing Day and run with it.

CP, this is like being in the bottom of the ninth, Yanks down 4-1 with Stanton up with the bases loaded.One jack and its a WIN.Swing and a miss on a 3-2 count, you go home sad,lol!

Great analogy Doc just hope we’re not being sucker punched. It seems we’re on the table for anything from 2-18 which is crazy 24 hours away.
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Post by Guest Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:18 am

@docstox12 wrote:NWS sounds like an ambulance chasing lawyer in a cheap suit waffling all over the place this morning,LOL.It could be less, it could be more , it could be MUCH more.Looks like they are buying more into that latest NAM run.If we get bombed as rb suggested in his videos, it;s going to be a riot watching them chase up the snow totals as the day progresses.

Doc I love your posts but this one woke up my wife. She’s pissed off. I laughed out loud.

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:19 am

Any of the pros on here think the NAM can pan out. I mean shoot even at half it’s total I’m at a foot and that’s 10:1

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