March 2nd Nor'easter Update

Where is Frank?? since last observation

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I GET A FRANKZILLA ON THIS RUN!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

u got a spare room? Is this at all feasible? And if so could we at least see a godzilla in NYC the cut off is drastic from 30 up by you to 4 a hr south

Don't worry about snow maps verbatim - I absolutely think a Godzilla is possible.....broken record here...... NORTH OF I-78 lmao I don't think likely until north and west of the city, but certainly possible. Hell, this run gave you almost that anyway!!!!

Hi res

Sick

aiannone wrote:Hi res

To borrow from CP [X] Dislike
LOL. looks like a dry slot from central NJ to northeast NJ with only 2-4" snow that is way too close to me for comfort.

Nam gives me 2 feet and NWS has me in a flood watch with 1 inch of slop. Sounds about right.

The fact that H5/7 CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IS ALL I NEEDED TO SEE. THE CEILING FOR THIS **IS** A ROID TO FRANKZILLA SOMEWHERE, AND QUITE POSSIBLY FOR SOME MEMBERS OF THIS FORUM GIVEN THE SETUP ON THE TABLE. LET THE PROCESSES CONTINUE TO PLAY OUT ON THE MODELING AND REAL-TIME. THE MOST IMPORTANT PART IS THE PATTERN SUPPORTS WHAT WE ARE SEEING, AND THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SEEING IT WHERE IT COUNTS IF NOT ON THE SURFACE/QPF MAPS. TRUST THE SAME PROCESS THST HAS GOTTEN US THIS FAR, FOR AT THE VERY LEAST, IT SHOWS THOSE SAME IDEAS HAVE MERIT.

amugs wrote:Sick

You guys are all way beyond me with this stuff but that is the Feb 25-26 2010 storm, at least in this scenario it is.

amugs wrote:

hyde345 wrote:I sent a message to NWS Albany asking for an explanation of their forecast in my area in mid HV. They have me in a flood watch with almost all rain with barely any mention of snow below 500 ft in elevation. I understand the thermal profiles are tricky with this system but shouldn't there be a mention of a chance of more significant snow accums given the latest Euro, Nam, and HRDPS. It seems like the Hi-res models are able to handle the dynamics of this system a little better. I know I won't get an answer but I thought I would try. This could be a major fail on their part if they are hugging the GFS as they normally do.

Hyde I have been harping on this since Monday the GFS is humps by our home grown met
GFS in these latent heat dynamic systems with marginal temp IS GOOD FOR SHIT!!
I HAVE SAIDNALLMALONG EURO, NAM  BLEND. BOOK IT

Yup. looks like this could be a big one.

Looks like a blend of 12z and 18z NAM.

It definitely looks a hell of a lot bigger than the 2-4" I'm currently predicted to get. Rb, there may be something to this whole process thing.

I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze. Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

So I’m trying to remain very pessimistic so I don’t get upset but.....the last two maps posted give me 6-9” and 12-14”. WTF. WTF. WTF. WTF. WTF. WTF

The 0Z RGEM brings snow closer to NYC than the 18Z RGEM but it's still a mainly rain event for NYC. Keep in mind that with the March sun, snow with marginal temperatures will struggle to stick unless your dealing with high rates. Now, if the steady snow waits until Friday evening, then I can see it accumulating. But I'm not excited about potential snow in NYC...yet.

Wow, and this looks similar for nearly 24 hrs, going not much lower than 40 mph to as high as 70mph tip LI, the HWW may need be extended well inland.

jmanley32 wrote:I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze.  Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

Lots of banding on that map.

Some will be overjoyed and some very disappointed, no way to tell who right now because of course this will all shift around a few more times before we're done.

IMO, Doc and CP will get some good snow (along with those a bit further north).  The rest of us will struggle with the precipitation.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze.  Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

Lots of banding on that map.

Some will be overjoyed and some very disappointed, no way to tell who right now because of course this will all shift around a few more times before we're done.

Yeah problem with this map is there is no way to pinpoint where these heavier bands are setting up, so this is pretty much a crapshoot projection. Of course if this did pan out, imagine being that one town in PA near Allentown that shows 2" while everyone north, south, east and west of them is getting 8-20". lol

12km stinks for southern WC, see soul, 5 inches not 6-12. 3km is hiogher though. But man 29 just to the north, mugs they do get to have theirs but a entire season of snow in one hit, not fair lol!!

Channel 5, no snow east of Passaic County.. wtf!
Channel 11 maybe an inch or 2
Channel 7 1-3" for Bergen County with potential for more

I've heard a lot about this being a heavy wet snow. Will that have any impact on ratios or will we still be dealing with 10:1?

rgem



qpf, verbatim a very heavy rain for all except north folks, maybe math is right i dunno

Dunnzoo wrote:Channel 5, no snow east of Passaic County.. wtf!
Channel 11  maybe an inch or 2
Channel 7  1-3"  for Bergen County with potential for more

GFS model huggers

jmanley32 wrote:I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze.  Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

This map is perfect. 15” for me. Only 6-10” for Jman and amugs. 1-2” for sroc4. Hahahaha. Sign me up

By the way. The last 4 maps have my parents in nw Ulster County anywhere from 23-38”

I concede the possibility that the NAM could be wrong. That the other models in line with the NAM could be wrong. That my thinking on this since Monday could be wrong. That rb could be wrong (doubtful. but I guess possible. lol). But I cannot understand how the TV mets, 24 hours before this storm will not at least concede that there is guidance out there suggesting a significant snowstorm for a huge portion of their viewing area. Not saying they have to buy into it. Just saying they should be talking about it. They must be REALLY confident in the GFS and the guidance that has this being a rain event. If they are right, kudos to them, I will give them full props. But IF they are wrong, they will have some 'splainin to do.

RGEM caves


And NAM shows b conditions Friday commuting for NNJ

syosnow94 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:I got my wxbell back wanted see closeups, your right 3km is about 6-12 for westchester even the city sees snow. I am really sorry LI folk, jeeze.  Go post some nice close up maps for you guys.

This map is perfect. 15” for me. Only 6-10” for Jman and amugs.  1-2” for sroc4. Hahahaha. Sign me up

By the way. The last 4 maps have my parents in nw Ulster County anywhere from 23-38”

I am okay with this map, coupled with the cooresponding wind map it would be a heck of a storm, and you go lose your lights for that my friend lol jk and actually where im located is more like 8-14 if you look close.