2018 Hurricane Season

Imo if she becomes a cat 5 I think it's ots weaker storm better shot at east coast

skinsfan1177 wrote:Imo if she becomes a cat 5 I think it's ots weaker storm better shot at east coast

I agree. I think if it's as strong as the GFS suggests in the 920mb range, it's more north and breaks down the ridge and turns OTS before reaching the coast. CMC and EURO showing landfall makes sense because a weaker system should be forced more west by the ridge

Looks like a left turn could be beginning with Florence. Today is the day, with the weakening gone on as well, it should begin heading west. Will be interesting to watch

I have less confidence this morning Florence will stay out to sea. But I am still favoring that solution until I see clearer and more consistent evidence that she misses the trough passing through the northern Atlantic.





You can see the aforementioned trough in the above image. Look how Florence misses the connection, as Scott would say, and there is a weakness found in the Southeast U.S. The ridge builds on top of Florence as a result.

I am quite astounded to say the least.

Anyway, there is still a chance Florence stays out to sea even if she misses the first connection. We have a long way to go with this one.



00z UKMET Ensembles:



All models:



Latest from NHC

Many factors still on the table the location of the ridge(more east or more west), strength of the storm, how far she turns today, etc. Tracking and sleepless nights are ahead.

I'll watch this out of the corner of my eye until Monday. Then I'll give it my full attention. There's a lot of green (or in this case blue) between us and that goal line right now.

billg315 wrote:I'll watch this out of the corner of my eye until Monday. Then I'll give it my full attention. There's a lot of green (or in this case blue) between us and that goal line right now.

Haha that's hard to do, you know you'll be watching all weekend like the rest of us!

I'm getting pulled in. Hope everybody had a great summer!

Wow. Lots going on in Atlantic. I’m following. Hope everyone is well

GFS coming in a little south, ridge building in a little quicker, may be closer to the coast on this run

Oh wow, hr 168 is not good. The Atlantic Ridge is noticeably stronger this run and no where to escape

Omg...gf s is destruction of NYC and nj...926mb good lord

Looks like may make landfall near NYC this run 930s...

Media is go have a football field day. Scott no this is wcs run compared to yesterday for us anyways. Much faster this run nothing to hold her back cat 3 or 4 into long island. Where's syo !! He wanted this.

jmanley32 wrote:Omg...gf s is destruction of NYC and nj...926mb good lord

There's no need for post like this. Really John you have to stop. Verbatim New York City doesn't even see hurricane-force winds with this run of the GFS. I will say this this system is so compact that only a very small area is probably going to be impacted if she makes landfall. Also the CMC on the other hand is much more likely and very different than the GFS again I'll go with probabilities any day over any model run especially 6 to 7 days out

CMC still has a NC landfall. Very skeptical of the way it gets to this solution. Weakens it to 1000+mb as it drifts WSW for a long time. The odds are this system will not get that weak and with a weakness in the ridge and strong ridging not built in yet, I don't see much reason to believe that this storm gets that far south.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Omg...gf s is destruction of NYC and nj...926mb good lord

There's no need for post like this. Really John you have to stop. Verbatim New York City doesn't even see hurricane-force winds with this run of the GFS. I will say this this system is so compact that only a very small area is probably going to be impacted if she makes landfall. Also the CMC on the other hand is much more likely and very different than the GFS again I'll go with probabilities any day over any model run especially 6 to 7 days out

Mehhhh, I'm gonna ride down the middle of y'all and just simply say that if this puppy transpired verbatim, we'd have big big problems region-wide.

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC still has a NC landfall. Very skeptical of the way it gets to this solution. Weakens it to 1000+mb as it drifts WSW for a long time. The odds are this system will not get that weak and with a weakness in the ridge and strong ridging not built in yet, I don't see much reason to believe that this storm gets that far south.

Okay but what's the probability of a cat 4 or Cat 5 making Direct landfall in the New York City. area are you a gambler? this is how atlantic City and all the casinos in New York and Connecticut make a killing off people. Anything is possible but highly unlikely. A cat 4 or Cat 5 hitting South or North Carolina has a higher probability then it happening here

algae888 wrote:

Sanchize06 wrote:CMC still has a NC landfall. Very skeptical of the way it gets to this solution. Weakens it to 1000+mb as it drifts WSW for a long time. The odds are this system will not get that weak and with a weakness in the ridge and strong ridging not built in yet, I don't see much reason to believe that this storm gets that far south.

Okay but what's the probability of a cat 4 or Cat 5 making Direct landfall in the New York City. area are you a gambler? this is how atlantic City and all the casinos in New York and Connecticut make a killing off people. Anything is possible but highly unlikely. A cat 4 or Cat 5 hitting South or North Carolina has a higher  probability then it happening here

Who says it's going to be a cat 5, the GFS? Just like the CMC is underdone, it's very possible the GFS is overdone in intensity. I'm not going to guess intensity, but the path makes sense. The path the CMC takes, doesn't given current observations. It's approaching a weakness in the ridge, it's going to gain some more latitude as long as it's not 1000-1007mb like the CMC suggests. Then when it reaches better conditions, it should strengthen, not remain in the 980mb range. Then it becomes a battle of how strong the ridge is and a potential strong hurricane wanting to come north whenever it gets the chance.

We have 2 camps:

Camp #1 - GFS

Camp #2 - UKMET, CMC, EURO

GFS shows a near direct hit on our area. Long Island is obliterated.

The other models show direct landfall into North Carolina.

out to sea is not shown on any guidance at this time

For now we track. Hopefully the next 5-6 days will give us a clear picture but anyone from NC to MA needs to monitor.

Euro initializing at 1002mb lol

WTH - GFS makes this do a loop - Jesus what scenarios we have seen so far.

I have been following Tomer Burg and excellent young met who is saying as most have put he put it in a more technical explanation that if Florence stays weak as she is now (and until we get recon flying into her to know what is what) she will most likely miss the escape hatch Sunday and pose a threat to the east coast from NC through. There are so many players on the table. One driver he is being concerned with is the modelling of the block and its timing. If it is quick to move in and expands as foretasted and its strength are all wild cards.

So we track and show some patience.

Frank_Wx wrote:We have 2 camps:

Camp #1 - GFS

Camp #2 - UKMET, CMC, EURO

GFS shows a near direct hit on our area. Long Island is obliterated.

The other models show direct landfall into North Carolina.

out to sea is not shown on any guidance at this time

That last 'Cane to affect Hawaii took a track directly between the Euro and GFS......

Also, folks. Bernie's latest Periscope is awesome & informative in lament's terms. He did mention the GFS "heading right into NYC", turned his camera around and goes "now it's not time to panic"...

Interesting read from a MET referencing Sandy & Florence. Would love to hear thoughts from our trusted WX folks on here on what he wrote...

http://www.guyonclimate.com/2018/09/06/extreme-temperature-diary-september-6-2018-topic-ridging-implications-for-the-future-sandy-and-florence/

Funny al no comment on frank saying long island is obliterated though. I be we said it would happen so bash on someone else cuz I think you all know that even though I get excited I am informed enough to know that its possible it won't happen but please if u feel u need to knock my comments and not others that are similar that's not right. Hrs does something crazy drops way South then back up coast hahaha. These models are nuts. 12z gfs Looks like it's headed for the area we will see. Don't wanna upset al so ill just say some scenarios look super bad. Some. And I thing casino gambling has far worse odds which I do gamble so go figure.