2018 Hurricane Season
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Vinnydula
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SoulSingMG
Quietace
Snow88
sroc4
jmanley32
30 posters
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.
oh boy...we forgot you are down in Florida and not up north..take care stay safe!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Michael is now a CAT 3; just a devastating storm headed for the FL panhandle.
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.
Oh shit Ryan. What city are you located at? Stay safe
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Tallahassee ..sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.
Oh shit Ryan. What city are you located at? Stay safe
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
You know? Call me crazy, but I don’t think I buy intensification through landfall. In fact, I can see a plateauing and then start of a decay coming into landfall and my reason is the following:
If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other.
If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
143 mph surface reading from a recent dropsonde. This may be a cat 4 soon
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
rb924119 wrote:You know? Call me crazy, but I don’t think I buy intensification through landfall. In fact, I can see a plateauing and then start of a decay coming into landfall and my reason is the following:
If you look at pressure anomalies, you will see how there are strong negative anomalies rapidly overtaking the CONUS as the midwestern system continues advancing in the wake of the departing high. This will likely distort the lower-level convergence such that the core will not be able to maintain its current progression, even with the other favorable atmospheric conditions. Remember, the stronger these systems become, the more perfect the environment surrounding them needs to be in order to maintain and/or strengthen them further. In my opinion, I think this disruption in the lower-level pressure field will outweigh the environmental conditions as it approaches the coast, and lead to a plateauing and then late start at a decay prior to landfall. Nonetheless, it will still be a powerful and destructive storm, but in the end, think it will fall short of current progs. We shall certainly see, one way or the other.
Looks pretty damn healthy on Infrared right now and pressure continues to lower. I wouldn't be surprised if this makes it to Cat 4 and even if it plateaus it will still be devastating with wind and storm surge.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
My boy Mike is a CAT 4 minimal at this point with the latest extrapolated information from my little eye. God help those is his way all the way through the Carolinas.
The storm surge is going to be historical along teh Big Bend Coast unlike Flo - teh shallow shelf there is going to exasperate this affect I hate to say he will be destructive if not devastating to the NE quadrant my lord he is angry!!
951 mb sonde splash with 19 kt sfc winds. Probably 949 mb now.

SICK!!!
Ryan be safe kid.
The storm surge is going to be historical along teh Big Bend Coast unlike Flo - teh shallow shelf there is going to exasperate this affect I hate to say he will be destructive if not devastating to the NE quadrant my lord he is angry!!
951 mb sonde splash with 19 kt sfc winds. Probably 949 mb now.
SICK!!!
Ryan be safe kid.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Thanks, everyone.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
weatherwatchermom wrote:Tallahassee ..sroc4 wrote:Quietace wrote:I'll let you guys know how this goes the next 24-36 hours.
Oh shit Ryan. What city are you located at? Stay safe
Damn. You are def in a tough spot. If not a direct hit you will likely be on the east side. Any talk about evacuation where you are? Seriously stay safe and update the board when you can after the fact. Good luck
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/weather/2018/10/09/shades-opal-heres-how-hurricane-michael-compares-devastating-storm/?noredirect=on&noredirect=on&utm_term=.1b4a6bc61104&__twitter_impression=true
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
ace, stay safe!! keep us posted.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
CATEGORY F*ING 4 & strengthening!
SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
OMG HOW HORRIBLE!!SoulSingMG wrote: CATEGORY F*ING 4 & strengthening!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Just heard 938 mb
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Michael is going for cat 5 imo. Ray I think you were wrong on this one and I wish u weren't. Ts winds already well onshore landfall is not far away. Crazy. I can't say I hope it won't be bad cuz it will so I will say I hope everyone evacuated cuz there's really no time left. Wow several days ago a meer ts to this monster.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Wow, he's a monster... bad news for those in his path, Levi Cowan is in Tallahassee as well i think, he mentioned prepping and lack of updates...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Pin hole eye seems a bit obscured in last few frames of imagery...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
I have rarely if ever seen such a tiny eye in such a big hurricane. Recon is finding steadily dropping pressure down to 937mb on special update on nhc. The 2 to 4inches of rain also jogged much further north now giving parts of the area a flooding rain. If he hugs the northern part of the cone we will see a ton of rain. Not sure if winds will be a factor prolly not but still he is go pass just far enough south looks like. Some euro ensembles have him still sub 960mb coming off the coast that's impressive after being over land so long.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Latest radar starting to show the jog north north-east i believe as well...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
On a side note I read Linda is now the longest living named storm in the Atlantic. I dunno if its the first but its alsoheaded home to Africa lol. Relocated to the north.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Michael now down to 933mb and max winds at 145. Damn.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
Max sustained winds now up to 145 MPh...don't be surprised to see a Cat 5 landfall after noon.

SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
just nuts these storms have defied all odds.SoulSingMG wrote:Max sustained winds now up to 145 MPh...don't be surprised to see a Cat 5 landfall after noon.![]()
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
From a pro Met on Tweeter:
We now have a pressure, 926, that’s 12mb stronger than any October hurricane to make landfall, ever recorded
CAT 5 status Pressure wise - jesus the Storm Surge maybe 30' plus with those shallow waters once he comes onto land.

We now have a pressure, 926, that’s 12mb stronger than any October hurricane to make landfall, ever recorded
CAT 5 status Pressure wise - jesus the Storm Surge maybe 30' plus with those shallow waters once he comes onto land.

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2018 Hurricane Season
amugs wrote:From a pro Met on Tweeter:
We now have a pressure, 926, that’s 12mb stronger than any October hurricane to make landfall, ever recorded
CAT 5 status Pressure wise - jesus the Storm Surge maybe 30' plus with those shallow waters once he comes onto land.
that is just insanity..I just heard that the eye wall size is increasing, but what would that really do?
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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