2018 Hurricane Season

Look at 12z GFS, thats a huge jump west, Euro and CMC have a landfall, my guess is the GFS will show the same in the next few runs, if any of them are right is way up in the air.

Don’t go too crazy over model solns for tropical systems 240 hrs out. Models often don’t know how to handle them in 3-5 days or less let alone 7-10. Give it 3-5 days then let’s see where we stand with Florence. For now focus should be on the tropical wave north of Cuba.

Appetizer of mainland USA before Florida Jo wants to dance with coast?

Bernie interesting  periscope. Flo Jo misses the hand off in this relay across the Atlantic then watch out EC!!! 
https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/1036555323924860930?s=19

TS Gordon may be able to strengthen to a CAT 1 before landfall. Entering a moderately favorable environment for some strengthening, warm SST, mild shear and most air.

amugs wrote:Bernie interesting  periscope. Flo Jo misses the hand off in this relay across the Atlantic then watch out EC!!! 
https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/1036555323924860930?s=19

Wow Bernie does not usually talk that far in advance of a system possibly effecting the US. Why you name her Flo Jo? LOL, I think from Carolinas on north is the threat zone, IF she can get through the shear and miss the trough which so far has not sown to pick her up in days of runs. I know sroc its far to soon to make any calls, got plenty of time for things to change but as Bernie said he believes models are going to do well with Florence, which would be quite something since usually they do not.

Florence is defying odds, and since its weakening yesterday has steadily strengthened now to a 65mph TS with 997mb pressure, almost a hurricane, IF she gets strong she could make the turn, staying weak is usually a factor in these recurves no?

jmanley32 wrote:Florence is defying odds, and since its weakening yesterday has steadily strengthened now to a 65mph TS with 997mb pressure, almost a hurricane

Interestingly, the NHC just said in the most recent forecast discussion that estimates for Florence’s strength range from 55 knots (65 mph) to 65 knots (75 mph, hurricane strength), but they went with the lower end of that range due to recent trends.

jmanley32 wrote:IF she gets strong she could make the turn, staying weak is usually a factor in these recurves no?

From NHC’s 5am advisory discussion yesterday:

“A stronger Florence will likely turn more toward the
northwest, while a weaker, shallower system should continue on a
more westward to west-northwestward track.  For now, the NHC
forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to
all of the consensus models.  This track is also generally in line
with the official intensity forecast, which shows a somewhat weaker
system than the GFS (on the north side of the guidance), but a
stronger one than the ECMWF (on the south side).”

The ECMWF/CMC/UKMET are continuing to show a track farther south, with the Euro and Canadian showing landfall in the Carolinas area. The GFS is still showing the recurve, although it is trending closer and closer to the EC every run.

I think Bernie over simplified things a bit. In addition to the differences of where the ridge forms he does not point out the fact that the GFs has another trough that combined with the ridge that forms to the east of Florence is what lifts it out. If you want this system to miss the bus OTS then shear is your friend. The weaker it is the further south and west it remains. Over next 3-5 pay attention to intensity and where within the NHac track it goes. If it trends north of the forecast come center OTS becomes more likely. If it trends south side of center the more likely it gets trapped under the ridge. I will say SST anomalies support a building ridge in the wake up the departing trough Bernie mentions.

Even though Euro shifted towards a recurve doesn't mean the threat to the EC is dead. Bare in mind the probability of a trop system making it to the EC when it has gained as much latitude as Florence has relative to where it is in the Atlantic is small.

It is small but def not impossible with the trough setup. I expected euro to do this at least once. Funny enough gfs brings a very dangerous hurricane a few hundred at most miles offshore and recurve at the last second. Its these minute details that won't b known till at least Sunday. Let me say if gfs is right on intensity a cat 4 or 5 barreling toward the midatlantic will b quite something to see coming from that direction.

A big factor in how far west Florence gets will depend on how strong the Atlantic Ridge can get. You can see in the last 4 GFS runs, it keeps getting stronger and that's why the GFS has come far west with this in the last 24 hours. The CMC is definitely with most aggressive with the ridging, which brings it very closely before turning NE

12z yesterday



18z yesterday



0z last night



6z this morning

Hurricane Florence at 11am advisory: 75 mph, 990 mb

Yup hurricane Florence defying the conditions. I have a feeling where ever she goes is go be a monster. May well make her own track. Hrs is again recurve fare out from us. Cmc is up coast but just a scrape. No euro yet I've seen.

12z GFS and EURO both show much weaker ridging and it's able to feel the weakness and just turns north OTS east of Bermuda on these runs.

The models show very few instances where the trough is positioned over the mid-west, allowing a ridge to stay stationed in the western Atlantic and potentially capturing a tropical cyclone as said trough tracks into the east. Therefore, direct landfall, especially in our area, seems unlikely anytime soon. Maybe end of month into October?

Frank_Wx wrote:The models show very few instances where the trough is positioned over the mid-west, allowing a ridge to stay stationed in the western Atlantic and potentially capturing a tropical cyclone as said trough tracks into the east. Therefore, direct landfall, especially in our area, seems unlikely anytime soon. Maybe end of month into October?

assuming there's a system available lol. Figure u don't mean Florence will be around then. Ho hum figured was go b such case. Models seem to agree on this now too except our oh so reliable Cmc. Sarchasm

You can see the current high res visible sat it looks like additional strengthening is occurring.  It looks like there is actually an eyewall trying to be cleared out.  


The next advisory will likely be upgraded to a Cat 2 or strong Cat1.  



Despite marginal SST and mod shear the reason for the strengthening is she has been moving under a fairly nice area of upper level divergence. The image below was the 200mb wind field where X is where the center of circulation is as of approx. 2pm.  You can see there is divergence in almost all quadrants over top



Over the next two days the euro and GFS have the southern half of the region beneath Florence to actually become convergent over top.  Because of this as well as moving into an     area of slightly stronger shear, at a minimum a leveling off or perhaps more likely some weakening is to be expected.  Despite what models had said the last few days a recurve is still the most likely scenario although we still have to monitor the trends.    

sroc4 wrote:You can see the current high res visible sat it looks like additional strengthening is occurring.  It looks like there is actually an eyewall trying to be cleared out.  


The next advisory will likely be upgraded to a Cat 2 or strong Cat1.  



Despite marginal SST and mod shear the reason for the strengthening is she has been moving under a fairly nice area of upper level divergence. The image below was the 200mb wind field where X is where the center of circulation is as of approx. 2pm.  You can see there is divergence in almost all quadrants over top



Over the next two days the euro and GFS have the southern half of the region beneath Florence to actually become convergent over top.  Because of this as well as moving into an     area of slightly stronger shear, at a minimum a leveling off or perhaps more likely some weakening is to be expected.  Despite what models had said the last few days a recurve is still the most likely scenario although we still have to monitor the trends.    

wow def looks impressive. Is Sunday still the fork in the road day or might the turn happen sooner due to being stronger.

18z gfs is crazy Florence totally misses an escape stays way south and has a 920mb cat 5 barreling toward Carolinas mid atlantic. I know its unlikely but it's a crazy solution along with 2 hurricanes in tow.

Well 18z holy crap Florence almost stalls offshore I think due to ridging to its ne? The diff from 12z is night and day. This isn't set in stone at all. However that's going almost 300 hrs out ugh I hope we don't have 10 to 16 days to watch her.

I read 12z Euro ensembles have many more members (about half) heading to the coast? Can anyone verify this and post a pic.

GFS solns for Florence are like a bipolar 16yr old girl. Not something I trust when they tell me something.

sroc4 wrote:GFS solns for Florence are like a bipolar 16yr old girl.  Not something I trust when they tell me something.  

lol, but I did hear the Euro ensembles have quite a few taking the west track is this true?

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:GFS solns for Florence are like a bipolar 16yr old girl.  Not something I trust when they tell me something.  

lol, but I did hear the Euro ensembles have quite a few taking the west track is this true?

Yes it is true

From wx Bell.and JB

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:GFS solns for Florence are like a bipolar 16yr old girl.  Not something I trust when they tell me something.  

lol, but I did hear the Euro ensembles have quite a few taking the west track is this true?

Yes it is true

From wx Bell.and JB

weak though, thats all over the place, we really have to wait and see if she makes the connection to get shunted out, if not then we def got something to watch.