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August 2018 Obs & Discussions

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brownie
skinsfan1177
rb924119
Radz
Math23x7
Quietace
weatherwatchermom
Snow88
billg315
docstox12
Dtone
Dunnzoo
frank 638
dkodgis
jmanley32
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Post by dkodgis Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:56 am

Heavy rain yesterday and for a half hour, it came down in sheets with the sun shining all through it. After Fri into Sat rains, I too will start wondering about the stability of trees. I expect today and tomorrow to dry things out a bit but right now my grass is starting feel like walking on a waterbed.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Aug 15, 2018 10:41 am

Currently 80* 67% Humidity...but SUNNY!!!!! we had an inch of rain yesterday.


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Post by Radz Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
Radz wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Radz wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This is crazy I love how TWC hyping the dip in the jetstream due to the low pressure but yet again another tropical moisture pull, wil lthis bring a [possible tropical or subtropical system this time? Math is it a nor easter really? Its summer arent those the fall, wouldnt it be more of a tropical or sub tropical system?

I am a garage sale picker for my ebay business (plus its fun) and having dry Sat mornings is a must but that looks dashed once again...sigh.
I'll put my order in for tons of sun, mid 80's, and low humidity week of the 18th - LBI bound, but don't worry Jman, with my luck we will be staring down a Cat 2 that week I'm sure lol!

Shoot, Radz!! What part of the island??? My grandparents live in Beach Haven and I'll be going down the following week (of course -_-) lmao

Beach Haven as well Rb, love that part of the island! Centre St. to be exact... i'm a Chicken or the Egg frequent flier Smile

I'll be in LBI next week as well! Peahala Park near the Acme. Radz, look for me at the Chicken or the Egg. I'll be the guy with the orange Frisbee Pie Company hat Smile  If not there, then at the Crust & Crumb. Yum!!!

Let's hope for some better weather next week!

CENTRE STREET?!!!! DUDE!!! THAT PRACTICALLY MAKES US NEIGHBORS!! HAHAHA My grandparents are block away from Holyoke, so only about 10-15 blocks from you lmao The fact that you called it by its full name and not the Chegg means you don't fly frequently *ENOUGH* ahahaha As for you, Pete, I know that area too!! I had a girlfriend (female friend - not to be confused with today's definition of girlfriend, so don't be getting any wise ideas lmao) that stayed three blocks north of the Acme haha What a small world!!!
It is a small world! Ok, so now i have to show my age RB... The name "Chegg" is a relatively new name, given by a much younger generation lol - back in the early 90's when I started going there, it was The Chicken or the Egg, and will always remain that way to me  lol!! (my kid's in their 20's call it the Chegg)
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Post by Radz Wed Aug 15, 2018 8:46 pm

essexcountypete wrote:
Radz wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Radz wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This is crazy I love how TWC hyping the dip in the jetstream due to the low pressure but yet again another tropical moisture pull, wil lthis bring a [possible tropical or subtropical system this time? Math is it a nor easter really? Its summer arent those the fall, wouldnt it be more of a tropical or sub tropical system?

I am a garage sale picker for my ebay business (plus its fun) and having dry Sat mornings is a must but that looks dashed once again...sigh.
I'll put my order in for tons of sun, mid 80's, and low humidity week of the 18th - LBI bound, but don't worry Jman, with my luck we will be staring down a Cat 2 that week I'm sure lol!

Shoot, Radz!! What part of the island??? My grandparents live in Beach Haven and I'll be going down the following week (of course -_-) lmao

Beach Haven as well Rb, love that part of the island! Centre St. to be exact... i'm a Chicken or the Egg frequent flier Smile

I'll be in LBI next week as well! Peahala Park near the Acme. Radz, look for me at the Chicken or the Egg. I'll be the guy with the orange Frisbee Pie Company hat Smile  If not there, then at the Crust & Crumb. Yum!!!

Let's hope for some better weather next week!
I'll be looking for you! Next week looking much better than recent weeks for sure, think we will be good!
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Post by sroc4 Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:16 pm

August 2018 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Day2otlk_1730

_________________
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
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Post by dkodgis Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:25 pm

well−organized severe thunderstorms
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Aug 16, 2018 10:48 pm

dkodgis wrote:well−organized severe thunderstorms
where does it say that? Dang thats go be close call for me I am on the line of yellow and green. Almost always this changes the day of though.
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Post by dkodgis Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:03 pm

It is how I interpret SLGT. I should have had a question mark at the end of the word “thunderstorms”. I am asking if that is what it means (the yellow area). NWS is noting now potential of strong gusts and thunderstorms by me for tomorrow
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:34 am

jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:well−organized severe thunderstorms
where does it say that? Dang thats go be close call for me I am on the line of yellow and green.  Almost always this changes the day of though.

Yes the map is for the risk of severe storms, which includes the potential for frequent cloud to ground lightning, flooding, strong damaging winds, and/or tornadic activity. The yellow is categorized as a "slight risk"

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:well−organized severe thunderstorms
where does it say that? Dang thats go be close call for me I am on the line of yellow and green.  Almost always this changes the day of though.

Yes the map is for the risk of severe storms, which includes the potential for frequent cloud to ground lightning, flooding, strong damaging winds, and/or tornadic activity.  The yellow is categorized as a "slight risk"

I know that come on sroc lol, I more meant was that something specific the NWS said. The expanded the slight area a bit, I have always found the slight category to not always mean there wont be really bad storms but more of a less widespread event, more localized. My HWO suggests a slight possibility of a tornado.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 17, 2018 12:49 pm

I know you know Jon.  LOL

Here is the tornado risk, the damaging wind gusts within the storms probability of 50kts or higher, and hail risks

August 2018 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Day1probotlk_1630_torn
August 2018 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Day1probotlk_1630_wind
August 2018 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Day1probotlk_1630_hail

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:33 pm

I like this chart

August 2018 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Nj-weather-forecast-severe-thunderstorms-flooding-nws2jpg-6ffd1dc7038f5e04
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:35 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:I like this chart

August 2018 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Nj-weather-forecast-severe-thunderstorms-flooding-nws2jpg-6ffd1dc7038f5e04
I'm just south of the yellow by like a town or 2 and small bout 10 to 15 miles. 3km nam misses NYC and to north to about 287. Above that they get hit by severe line.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:31 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:I like this chart

August 2018 Obs & Discussions  - Page 5 Nj-weather-forecast-severe-thunderstorms-flooding-nws2jpg-6ffd1dc7038f5e04

oh I like this!!

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:50 pm

Wow the line pushing through NJ is actually intensifying and solidifying and has a warning for 70mph gusts, please report if you are in its path.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:59 pm

This line is no joke extensive damage being reported and its continuing to intensify which is unusual
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Post by dkodgis Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:18 pm

Up here in northern Orange County we got an almost non existent spritz with some thunder but no visible lightning. A non-event here
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:05 pm

Weakened to nothing but a regular boring t-storm...of course curse of the hudson.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:13 pm

Just a little rumble here
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:09 am

1.41" so far for the last 6 hours... monsooning rain, power lines and trees down, tons of lightning... so cool! Waiting on probably a little more tonight before tomorrow's chance of storms...


And another .41" this morning


Rain so far this month      9.3"   unbelievable!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Aug 18, 2018 9:42 am

Dunnzoo wrote:1.41" so far for the last 6 hours... monsooning rain, power lines and trees down, tons of lightning... so cool! Waiting on probably a little more tonight before tomorrow's chance of storms...


And another .41" this morning


Rain so far this month      9.3"   unbelievable!

affraid wow..so much rain...we have had our share 4.43 so far this month...but nothing like you up north and further south... this is just crazy...is this the summer on target to be the rainiest??
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Post by sroc4 Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:33 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote:1.41" so far for the last 6 hours... monsooning rain, power lines and trees down, tons of lightning... so cool! Waiting on probably a little more tonight before tomorrow's chance of storms...


And another .41" this morning


Rain so far this month      9.3"   unbelievable!

affraid  wow..so much rain...we have had our share 4.43 so far this month...but nothing like you up north and further south... this is just crazy...is this the summer on target to be the rainiest??

That's unbelievable Janet! I am sitting at 5.98" on my rain gauge for the month this am. More to come tonight and tomorrow.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Sat Aug 18, 2018 10:44 am

Good news....after this weekends Rain, Monday and Tuesday will feature dew points in the upper 60's, a little better than the low and mid 70's we've been experiencing.  Dew points will again creep up back into the low 70's briefly headed into Wed ahead of a cold frontal passage.  Following the cold frontal passage dew points will fall into the upper 50's and low 60's with high temps in the low 80's and upper 70's which will feel GLORIOUS!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:27 am

sroc4 wrote:Good news....after this weekends Rain, Monday and Tuesday will feature dew points in the upper 60's, a little better than the low and mid 70's we've been experiencing.  Dew points will again creep up back into the low 70's briefly headed into Wed ahead of a cold frontal passage.  Following the cold frontal passage dew points will fall into the upper 50's and low 60's with high temps in the low 80's and upper 70's which will feel GLORIOUS!

CAN NOT WAIT!!!!!!!!!!! AND YES I AM YELLING!! Very Happy Very Happy
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Post by Math23x7 Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:08 pm

One thing to keep in mind in that as wet as this August has been, it doesn't hold a finger on August 2011, which had 18.95" of rain at CPK. That had had several thunderstorm outbreaks, a coastal storm mid-month, and hurricane Irene. The August 2011 rain total through the 17th was 9.61". The August 2018 rain total through the 17th is 7.64".

After the 17th in 2011, there were thunderstorms on the 18th, 19th and 21st (totaling 1.98" at CPK), 0.49" of rain from a frontal passage on the 25th, and then 6.87" of rain from hurricane Irene the 27th-28th.

There was a bit of rain a few hours ago with more on the way potentially this afternoon. But will it impress like 2011 did?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:04 pm

Math23x7 wrote:One thing to keep in mind in that as wet as this August has been, it doesn't hold a finger on August 2011, which had 18.95" of rain at CPK.  That had had several thunderstorm outbreaks, a coastal storm mid-month, and hurricane Irene. The August 2011 rain total through the 17th was 9.61".  The August 2018 rain total through the 17th is 7.64".

After the 17th in 2011, there were thunderstorms on the 18th, 19th and 21st (totaling 1.98" at CPK), 0.49" of rain from a frontal passage on the 25th, and then 6.87" of rain from hurricane Irene the 27th-28th.

There was a bit of rain a few hours ago with more on the way potentially this afternoon.  But will it impress like 2011 did?

I knew I could count on you to let us know...forgot about 2011....Hey saw this morning there is a Math Festival coming up!! thought of you ...you can go to momath.com...if you did not already know.. Smile
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Post by dkodgis Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:53 pm

CPCantmeasurewater.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it
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