August 2018 Obs & Discussions

Gum trees are showing red leaves, just a bit. Fall is starting.

Rain, rain, rain. Here is is raining pretty good. I think we are getting hosed until Wed at least. Anything on this weekend? Nor'easter or no?

Some areas around here Got 7 inches of rain. Here is a link to a senior development in Brick NJ that was evacuated.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2110017462403976&id=650480554978884

Jeeze this rain is apocalyptic. Its crazy downpours everyday some days longer than others. Trees are so full and it looks like Amazon here. Trees are breaking purely due to the weight of the rain on the mammoth leaves. I think we must have had at least a foot of rain over past several weeks. All I can say is I need several dry days as I need to move things to my storage and cannot do so with these unpredictable tropical downpours.

another day of rain..another inch in the bucket so far for the day...what a depressing summer(weather wise)! It better snow this winter!!!

skinsfan1177 wrote:Some areas around here Got 7 inches of rain. Here is a link to a senior development in Brick NJ that was evacuated.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2110017462403976&id=650480554978884

absolutely crazy..I saw on the radar that the bulls eye set up over that area...and right now saw on the news that heavy rain is set up over Orient and has not moved since 2pm

The stream on my property has started rising. It is about 6 inches high and four feet wide. This rain can make it 30 feet wide and five feet deep. Then it runs. About four inches here today. Still raining.

.65" of rain here today, a light day!

I'll have some new content posted for you all in the morning to hopefully spur some discussion!!

It's a two-parter: First part is a brief and basic overview of some of the meteorology behind what set off our recent rain event, and the second is a discussion on where I think we see pattern head in the coming weeks.

Does anyone know if this is one of the wettest Augusts? Pretty soon we will need mosquito forecasts to tell us we are going Amazon

Ok, gang, here are are my latest discussions. Again, Part 1 is a brief, slightly technical discussion of what led to the rainfall yesterday. I intended it to serve as an easy discussion for those not as well-versed with meteorology, but provide some explanation of some of the main technical aspects that helped the event to occur.

Part 2 is a bit more technical and goes over where I think the pattern is headed in coming weeks.

Hope you all enjoy them, and hopefully it sparks some interesting discussion!! Any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to post them, and I'll do my best to respond! Thanks, everybody!!

Part 1:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Eek7TfWYoQbGRD9ekIcn4JRyy8QIk00K

Part 2:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-86yG6bk8QvfxwLFYpvGp8T4pvChnger

This must been the fifth time I have been getting stuck with a would a downpour and I got to say again there's so much lightning going on I never remember seeing that much lightning in my life

rb924119 wrote:Ok, gang, here are are my latest discussions. Again, Part 1 is a brief, slightly technical discussion of what led to the rainfall yesterday. I intended it to serve as an easy discussion for those not as well-versed with meteorology, but provide some explanation of some of the main technical aspects that helped the event to occur.

Part 2 is a bit more technical and goes over where I think the pattern is headed in coming weeks.

Hope you all enjoy them, and hopefully it sparks some interesting discussion!! Any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to post them, and I'll do my best to respond! Thanks, everybody!!

Part 1:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Eek7TfWYoQbGRD9ekIcn4JRyy8QIk00K

Part 2:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-86yG6bk8QvfxwLFYpvGp8T4pvChnger

thank you but for the Post you put up only problem is I could not open it I don't know why hopefully we will have a better pattern change . I hope you had a great summer so far even though the second half of it has been lousy I am going on vacation Thursday 1 week I'm going to Aruba

Absolute down poor here in Hazlet...thunder and lightning too...update..those in toms river not in flood zone so no flood ins required...Will not be covered by insurance ...what a shame

Rb can't open it

Radz wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Radz wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:This is crazy I love how TWC hyping the dip in the jetstream due to the low pressure but yet again another tropical moisture pull, wil lthis bring a [possible tropical or subtropical system this time? Math is it a nor easter really? Its summer arent those the fall, wouldnt it be more of a tropical or sub tropical system?

I am a garage sale picker for my ebay business (plus its fun) and having dry Sat mornings is a must but that looks dashed once again...sigh.

I'll put my order in for tons of sun, mid 80's, and low humidity week of the 18th - LBI bound, but don't worry Jman, with my luck we will be staring down a Cat 2 that week I'm sure lol!

Shoot, Radz!! What part of the island??? My grandparents live in Beach Haven and I'll be going down the following week (of course -_-) lmao

Beach Haven as well Rb, love that part of the island! Centre St. to be exact... i'm a Chicken or the Egg frequent flier

I'll be in LBI next week as well! Peahala Park near the Acme. Radz, look for me at the Chicken or the Egg. I'll be the guy with the orange Frisbee Pie Company hat If not there, then at the Crust & Crumb. Yum!!!

Let's hope for some better weather next week!

raining again!! arrr...this is just crazy...

essexcountypete wrote:

Radz wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Radz wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:This is crazy I love how TWC hyping the dip in the jetstream due to the low pressure but yet again another tropical moisture pull, wil lthis bring a [possible tropical or subtropical system this time? Math is it a nor easter really? Its summer arent those the fall, wouldnt it be more of a tropical or sub tropical system?

I am a garage sale picker for my ebay business (plus its fun) and having dry Sat mornings is a must but that looks dashed once again...sigh.

I'll put my order in for tons of sun, mid 80's, and low humidity week of the 18th - LBI bound, but don't worry Jman, with my luck we will be staring down a Cat 2 that week I'm sure lol!

Shoot, Radz!! What part of the island??? My grandparents live in Beach Haven and I'll be going down the following week (of course -_-) lmao

Beach Haven as well Rb, love that part of the island! Centre St. to be exact... i'm a Chicken or the Egg frequent flier

I'll be in LBI next week as well! Peahala Park near the Acme. Radz, look for me at the Chicken or the Egg. I'll be the guy with the orange Frisbee Pie Company hat  If not there, then at the Crust & Crumb. Yum!!!

Let's hope for some better weather next week!

Sounds like we will have some folks down the shore next week! Maybe we can plan a get together with our Jersey shore natives! Weather does look to improve next week with temps in the low 80's!

frank 638 wrote:This must been the fifth time I have been getting stuck with a would a downpour and I got to say again there's so much lightning going on I never remember seeing that much lightning in my life

Seriously? That must been one heck of a localized storm cuz there was nada here in yonkers. You sure? Theres no way that couldnt be seen only a few miles from you.

On a side note a huge tree came down and took down a pole and a few cars, power is out and midland ave is closed from yonkers ave to mclean ave, its a mess will likely be closed tomorrow too. the ground is getting so wet and leaves so heavy normal trees with no wind are falling, not good.

jmanley32 wrote:

frank 638 wrote:This must been the fifth time I have been getting stuck with a would a downpour and I got to say again there's so much lightning going on I never remember seeing that much lightning in my life

Seriously? That must been one heck of a localized storm cuz there was nada here in yonkers.  You sure?  Theres no way that couldnt be seen  only a few miles from you.

On a side note a huge tree came down and took down a pole and a few cars, power is out and midland ave is closed from yonkers ave to mclean ave, its a mess will likely be closed tomorrow too. the ground is getting so wet and leaves so heavy normal trees with no wind are falling, not good.

Jman i am no weather expert..but on Friday we had a huge down pour..thunder and lightning and wind it was crazy..my husband called and said let's go out to dinner i told him he was crazy...it's bad out. He laughed .it was not raining by him and his office is next town over door to door 12 min

I noticed this whole system looks like a giant cycloe all the precip is rotating around a LP, ovder land? Looks like a hurricane but centered over new england now it looks like, why has it barely moved in like 2 weeks?

And incoming NW NJ looks like your inf for another long training event of rain and storms, looks to head this way after, thats only go make things worse for restoring the power up my street. Luckily I only had power surges.

essexcountypete wrote:

Radz wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Radz wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:This is crazy I love how TWC hyping the dip in the jetstream due to the low pressure but yet again another tropical moisture pull, wil lthis bring a [possible tropical or subtropical system this time? Math is it a nor easter really? Its summer arent those the fall, wouldnt it be more of a tropical or sub tropical system?

I am a garage sale picker for my ebay business (plus its fun) and having dry Sat mornings is a must but that looks dashed once again...sigh.

I'll put my order in for tons of sun, mid 80's, and low humidity week of the 18th - LBI bound, but don't worry Jman, with my luck we will be staring down a Cat 2 that week I'm sure lol!

Shoot, Radz!! What part of the island??? My grandparents live in Beach Haven and I'll be going down the following week (of course -_-) lmao

Beach Haven as well Rb, love that part of the island! Centre St. to be exact... i'm a Chicken or the Egg frequent flier

I'll be in LBI next week as well! Peahala Park near the Acme. Radz, look for me at the Chicken or the Egg. I'll be the guy with the orange Frisbee Pie Company hat  If not there, then at the Crust & Crumb. Yum!!!

Let's hope for some better weather next week!

CENTRE STREET?!!!! DUDE!!! THAT PRACTICALLY MAKES US NEIGHBORS!! HAHAHA My grandparents are block away from Holyoke, so only about 10-15 blocks from you lmao The fact that you called it by its full name and not the Chegg means you don't fly frequently *ENOUGH* ahahaha As for you, Pete, I know that area too!! I had a girlfriend (female friend - not to be confused with today's definition of girlfriend, so don't be getting any wise ideas lmao) that stayed three blocks north of the Acme haha What a small world!!!

frank 638 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ok, gang, here are are my latest discussions. Again, Part 1 is a brief, slightly technical discussion of what led to the rainfall yesterday. I intended it to serve as an easy discussion for those not as well-versed with meteorology, but provide some explanation of some of the main technical aspects that helped the event to occur.

Part 2 is a bit more technical and goes over where I think the pattern is headed in coming weeks.

Hope you all enjoy them, and hopefully it sparks some interesting discussion!! Any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to post them, and I'll do my best to respond! Thanks, everybody!!

Part 1:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Eek7TfWYoQbGRD9ekIcn4JRyy8QIk00K

Part 2:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-86yG6bk8QvfxwLFYpvGp8T4pvChnger

thank you but for the Post you put up only problem is I could not open it I don't know why hopefully we will have a better pattern change . I hope you had a great summer so far even though the second half of it has been lousy I am going on vacation Thursday 1 week I'm going to Aruba

Mom, this is for you too Try these links:

Part 1: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Eek7TfWYoQbGRD9ekIcn4JRyy8QIk00K

Part 2: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-86yG6bk8QvfxwLFYpvGp8T4pvChnger

A couple of technical edits: 1. The Niño region I reference is actually 1.2, not 4.2. Any tropical development that might occur during the target period does not necessarily have to come from the trough split I talk about; it could also come from the Tropics. My point is that it would be something that is very innocuous until it reaches the region I highlighted....in closer to the U.S.

Heavy rain yesterday and for a half hour, it came down in sheets with the sun shining all through it. After Fri into Sat rains, I too will start wondering about the stability of trees. I expect today and tomorrow to dry things out a bit but right now my grass is starting feel like walking on a waterbed.

Currently 80* 67% Humidity...but SUNNY!!!!! we had an inch of rain yesterday.