Re: August 2018 Obs & Discussions

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:04 pm

Math23x7 wrote:One thing to keep in mind in that as wet as this August has been, it doesn't hold a finger on August 2011, which had 18.95" of rain at CPK. That had had several thunderstorm outbreaks, a coastal storm mid-month, and hurricane Irene. The August 2011 rain total through the 17th was 9.61". The August 2018 rain total through the 17th is 7.64".

After the 17th in 2011, there were thunderstorms on the 18th, 19th and 21st (totaling 1.98" at CPK), 0.49" of rain from a frontal passage on the 25th, and then 6.87" of rain from hurricane Irene the 27th-28th.

There was a bit of rain a few hours ago with more on the way potentially this afternoon. But will it impress like 2011 did?

I knew I could count on you to let us know...forgot about 2011....Hey saw this morning there is a Math Festival coming up!! thought of you ...you can go to momath.com...if you did not already know.. Smile

by **dkodgis** Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:53 pm

CPCantmeasurewater.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:58 pm

dkodgis wrote:CPCantmeasurewater.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it

This is beyond classic ahahahaha if CP ever gets banned from OTI I think this should be his new identity......nobody would ever know lmfaooooo

by **docstox12** Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:47 am

dkodgis wrote:CPCantmeasurewater.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it

Damian.........this is pure GENIUS!!! HILARIOUS. Too bad CP, hibernates in the summer, unlike all Mammals who do so in the winter, and can't enjoy this hilarity!

lol!

by **dkodgis** Sun Aug 19, 2018 6:49 am

by **dkodgis** Sun Aug 19, 2018 7:21 am

Well it does stand to reason. Why would the people who measure at the park do any better with rain vs. snow?

by **algae888** Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:40 am

Mostly cloudy 66° dew point of 62. It's time to poke my head out of my hibernation hole. as Frank has noted in the scroll above a one-week reprieve from the heat and humidity. although we have not seen any 100-degree readings this summer it has been uncomfortable with the high humidity. Even if we go back to the 90s and high humidity September is much easier to take as our sun angle and the amount of daylight continue to dwindle. If we get a clear sky and Light winds late this week into next weekend we should see widespread 50s especially north and west of New York City and the Long Island Pine Barrens. Looking forward to the cooler weather and this upcoming winter

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:14 am

wow shocker another raining day.. heavy rain right now.... .85 inches of rain has fallen already today...happy that the temperature is lower, on the bright side...Hope everyone has a good day!

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:10 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:wow shocker another raining day.. heavy rain right now.... .85 inches of rain has fallen already today...happy that the temperature is lower, on the bright side...Hope everyone has a good day!

I'm in Seaside Park for 2 weeks, the wind is absolutely howling in off the ocean, having some rain this morning, but will sacrifice for a great week coming up!

by **dkodgis** Sun Aug 19, 2018 1:47 pm

75 here. Breezy. 11 mph out of the east. It was quite cloudy and it looked like rain but the sun came out. Tonight I will be listening to the Katydids while I sip wine on the deck. A few leaves are falling as I write.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Aug 19, 2018 10:30 pm

Catching up with rain totals... an additional .55" last night, .04" toady... grand total for the mpnth so far

9.89"!!!!!!!

Down here is Seaside Park today, quite a bit of light rain and mist all day, slow moving cells just hugging the coast unable to escape the easterlie winds blowing in the 20's, gusts at almost 30...

by **Radz** Mon Aug 20, 2018 6:59 am

Friday and Saturday were HOT, upper 80’s with real feels in the upper 90’s here on LBI, water was 74* and delightful! Saturday’s sun left you waiting for that occasional cloud to block the sun for a few moments! Heavy rain overnight left us with light rain and easterlies most of yesterday- looking fwd to some spectacular days this week

by **sroc4** Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:21 am

While JB has not abandoned the official El Nino coming for this upcoming winter season some are starting to question if we ever reach official El Nino status. At the Weather Bell site J D'Aleo is now hinting at another possible failed el nino like last year where the early indication were in spring and summer 2017 that el nino might occur for winter 2017/2018, but el nino failed and we in fact went the opposite way with a weak La Nina last winter. I will also point out Tom Downs, the third main meteorologist on the weathe bell site, has been questioning if we ever reach el nino status since the spring. You may recall I posted his reasoning about that back in the late spring. While I doubt a La Nina is in the cards for this season a weak El Nino at best, but perhaps more likely a warm Neutral ENSO is most likely. The good news for winter weather lovers sake is regardless of the official status of ENSO this season it appears the temp anomaly gradient is setting up nicely for a favored cold and snowy winter in the NE and Mid Atlantic with warmer SST anomalies surrounding the dateline and cooler anomalies to the east setting up for the potential for favorable walker and Hadley cell configurations and MJO forcing mechanisms. Of course this is only one driver in the overall pattern to concern ourselves with and it is still way to early to make any real definitive statements on how it all plays out for this upcoming winter, but thus far ENSO has trended towards a good look for us for the winter.

Here are J D'Aleos thoughts on ENSO as of yesterday:

The MEI dropped back after two months on the border of the El Nino threshold. Recall last year how a move to El Nino that was stronger in the MEI failed and a borderline La Nina ensued

See what Klaus Wolter who developed the MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) has to say in his August update:

In the context of last year's aborted El Niño event, this section features a comparison figure with six other short-lived events during the MEI period of record. Only one of them occurred before 1980, while 2017 joined both 2014 and 2012 in a recent clustering of such events that lasted five five bimonthly seasons or less, with all of them ending before September-October.

Compared to last month, the updated (June-July) MEI dropped rapidly to +0.07, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral ranking. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.6 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (March-April), there are only four analogues to the situation this season: 1985, '00, '01, and '08. All four of these cases either continued with ENSO-neutral conditions (2001) or dropped into at least intermittent La Niña conditions (especially in 2008, but also in 2000, and very briefly in 1985). Even among the other eight cases, El Niño was 'not on the menu' (2003 came closest). Compared to last month, the likelihood of El Niño conditions later this year has changed dramatically (from "inevitable" to "very unlikely")....

Negative SST anomalies south of the Equator and along the South American coast have survived compared to last month, while positive SST anomalies are hanging in along the Equator just west of the dateline, as seen in the latest weekly SST map.

...For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (9 August 2018), ENSO-neutral conditions are diagnosed, and predicted to transition to El Niño later this year with 70% odds by boreal winter. The latest MEI assessment is in disagreement with this, but also with itself just one month ago.

For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. In 2017, this index oscillated around 0 through May, only to drop to -10 (-1 sigma) in June, corresponding to El Niño conditions for just one month, rose back up to +8 in July, continued between +3 and +9 through October, hit +12 in November, the highest value since September 2016, flagging the strongest La Niña conditions for this event, only to yoyo back to -1 in December, and back iup to +9 in January, -6 in February, all the way up to +11 in March, its final (?) La Niña peak for this event. Since then it declined steadily and reached -6 by June 2018, only to bounce back up to +2 in July. In sum, the SOI is back to wild fluctuations that do not really match any other ENSO index, although the longer-term average was in weak La Niña territory for much the last year....

The next update for the MEI is planned for September 8th or earlier (crossing fingers that the input data is not as late as this month). Compared to last month, the odds for El Niño in 2018 have dropped dramatically, not unlike previous aborted events in 2017, 2014, and 2012. Daily updates of the ENSO status can be found at the TAO/TRITON website, showing weak anomalies, or mostly ENSO-neutral conditions in early August over the equatorial Pacific.

-------------------------

On the TAO Triton site, the year most similar in the equatorial buoy cross-section was 2014.

The CPC Animation shows the cooling east but some consolidation of warm near 150 meter depth central. Can this come east and turn it around? Does it mean at least a Modoki is in the offing with warmth near the dateline (the official WB position now). It will be interesting to see the plumes and how many abandon or temper the El Nino quest.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Aug 20, 2018 3:34 pm

Starting to think about winter.........

by **frank 638** Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to think about winter.........

lol u know I am in Aruba and I am also looking forward for winter .how is your summer so far

by **dkodgis** Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:54 am

I am starting to think about fall and the coming leaf cleanup every weekend. It is about 3 am and I am up listening to the rainfall which is light yet musical. It is a quiet pitter patter in the darkness. It felt like a fall day yesterday so I guess in about a week we get a couple more pool weeks in.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:36 am

.72" of rain overnight, making my monthly total 10.61"!

by **billg315** Wed Aug 22, 2018 1:36 pm

This is the time of year where I first really start to notice the sun setting earlier and it getting dark before 8 p.m. Combine that with some lows in the 50s and low dewpoints and I start thinking about four things:
1. Football
2. Baseball Postseason
3. Pumpkin Beers and the impending return of stout and porter season
4. Winter Outlooks
I'll ignore next week's return to summer. Even a week of 90s can't stop our relentless march toward autumn at this point.

by **dkodgis** Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:00 pm

I agree with all four points but for me, it is IPA or Pilsner. The strong stuff is good with chile or beef stew but as a recreational activity, the lighter beers work for me. I was just looking outside the kitchen window and I can already see the change in sunlight. It is something like the sun during the eclipse. The light is there but it seems to be diminished, spread out more, and about now until end of Sep or so I love walking on the beach for that reason. The light is seasonal to me. I can just tell the very late summer and fall light is different. Can't put my finger on it but it sure is pretty. Subtle nuances bring in new seasons. Looking forward to the pumpkin ice cream.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Aug 22, 2018 3:13 pm

frank 638 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to think about winter.........
lol u know I am in Aruba and I am also looking forward for winter .how is your summer so far

Summer has been busy. Some road trips, visits to Florida, weddings, etc. Lots happening. But I have enjoyed it!

dkodgis wrote:I am starting to think about fall and the coming leaf cleanup every weekend. It is about 3 am and I am up listening to the rainfall which is light yet musical. It is a quiet pitter patter in the darkness. It felt like a fall day yesterday so I guess in about a week we get a couple more pool weeks in.

Yea, I think August will actually end up pretty warm. Maybe even September.

by **sroc4** Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:25 pm

dkodgis wrote:I agree with all four points but for me, it is IPA or Pilsner. The strong stuff is good with chile or beef stew but as a recreational activity, the lighter beers work for me. I was just looking outside the kitchen window and I can already see the change in sunlight. It is something like the sun during the eclipse. The light is there but it seems to be diminished, spread out more, and about now until end of Sep or so I love walking on the beach for that reason. The light is seasonal to me. I can just tell the very late summer and fall light is different. Can't put my finger on it but it sure is pretty. Subtle nuances bring in new seasons. Looking forward to the pumpkin ice cream.

Bill and dk you guys are speaking my language. Im not the hugest pumpkin beer fan although I always like to enjoy one or two in the fall. In Summer I love me a good summer ale, or crisp lager; however, when the the cooler weather hits I start reaching for a good IPA, pilsner or a stout. My current favorite IPA is SweetWater Combined with football, and comfort foods like chili, wings, homemade soups, and winter on the horizon...oh baby. Its coming. We still have plenty of hot hazy and humid days but the worst of it is likely over.

by **dkodgis** Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:09 pm

Can’t seem to find a decent pilsner anymore. Tell me where I can get it, please! Around 7 tonight man did it gust for about 10 min. Some dark clouds then nothing. It all calmed down. I notice my hostas are just starting to get a little wrinkled on the edge of the leaves. Nature is telling me the days are getting shorter. 8:09 and pitch dark out. Hurry winter to comfort me

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Aug 23, 2018 1:14 pm

Spectacular day down the shore, I could take 100 days like today!

by **docstox12** Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:06 pm

Driving around my area I notice that barely 1 to 2% of the trees have a splash of color.Last year at this time it was 5 to 10%.Maybe this jibes with the Accuweather Fall forecast of continued warmth.It's 3 solid weeks behind last year with color.Don't think next weeks heat wave in the 90's is going to speed things up either.Looking forward to a week of temps from the 40's at night to the 60's during the day.Dreadful muggy, warm, wet summer.

by **dkodgis** Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:05 pm

It was a lovely night last night for sleeping with windows open

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:03 pm

Heat wave starting Monday

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by **sroc4** Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Heat wave starting Monday

August 2018 Obs & Discussions - Page 6 Tenor

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