FLORENCE: East Coast Threat or Does She Sleep With the Fishes?

12z GFS is OTS after parking offshore near the OBX, heading back south and then eventually back up and out.

I repeat: NO one knows where Flo will flow. ;-)

Even though she is ingesting dry air her mid and low level circulation are vertically stacked. As soon as she mixes out the dry air kaboom

And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run...

Flight Recon Data

SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run...

So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

sroc4 wrote:Even though she is ingesting dry air her mid and low level circulation are vertically stacked. As soon as she mixes out the dry air kaboom

Absolutely. Florence is well on her way to intensifying. The sky is literally the limit in the coming days in terms of its MPI....

In all reality, nothing has changed so far today with the greatest probability of landfall still between SC and OBX.

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run...

So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)

SoulSingMG wrote:

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run...

So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)

No "ish" allowed, only exact lat/lon coordinates.

If people want an easy way to compare the movement of Florence to the official track this is a decent site for that...
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run...

So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)

No "ish" allowed, only exact lat/lon coordinates.

Lol, omg here.

Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?

jmanley32 wrote:Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?

Okay. The GFS is not OCEAN COUPLED. Thus, it's intensity forecasts are bogus, period, inaccurate, period, and unusable, period.

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?

Okay. The GFS is not OCEAN COUPLED. Thus, it's intensity forecasts are bogus, period, inaccurate, period, and unusable, period.

ill have to learn more about what that means. Jeeze no need be so testy sir. I figured so much just didn't know why.

SoulSingMG wrote:

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:And the 12z UKMET comes considerably north from its previous run...

So a SC landfall instead of a Georgia landfall right?

Yeah, well SC/NC border-ish (Wilmington)

No "ish" allowed, only exact lat/lon coordinates.

Lol, omg here.

With that high pressure anchored over New England there's no way she's coming up the coast and if she stalls she will be pulled out to sea with the next positively tilted trough as you see over the northern Midwest. It is highly unlikely that she will make landfall from the northern Mid-Atlantic on North if she comes this for North she probably recurves out to sea we shall see

jmanley32 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Yep she's getting going again. Gfs was ridiculous never made landfall and got down to 909mb. I doubt that but I guess not imposdible. I too would like see a little action up here not just moooore rain. I don't think anyone can predict this with great accuracy with such a setup but u guys all have points one way or the other that make sense. Now which is it?

Okay. The GFS is not OCEAN COUPLED. Thus, it's intensity forecasts are bogus, period, inaccurate, period, and unusable, period.

ill have to learn more about what that means. Jeeze no need be so testy sir. I figured so much just didn't know why.

All that means is that the GFS does not a have link in its coding between the physics of the atmosphere and of the ocean. It only considers the atmospheric physics, which is why you see it with runaway intensification. It doesn't consider the role of things such as energy derived (or lack thereof) from the ocean. Make sense?

Hey guys I was just wondering if this storm was to come up the cost how strong will she be and should we start preparing now for the worst

No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.

Southern NC/ NC/SC border landfall on the EC

rb924119 wrote:

Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.

I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all

Looks like EURO heads for NC. Seems as if foreign models trended north today, as many suspected.

You guys are good euro more north hits nc. I dunno something tells me we may still be in for a surprise up this way. Not direct landfall but the run yesterday like Irene was bad enough. I could still see something like that happening if our brick wall block is at all flexible. My co worker said to me last week she feels like we are going to see a hurricane this year. No idea why but sometimes women's intuition trumps all lol

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.

I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all

how is it diff than hrs in the track looked pretty similar to me except made full landfall. Euro is also super fast the 24 he jump is like 500 miles plus.

Quietace wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Quietace wrote:No large differences on the Euro through 84...

Large difference now haha well further north compared to 00z. GFS-esque.

I wouldn't say that it was GFS like at all

.

The correction, not the actual run. Sorry, should have been more specific.

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