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Long Range Thread 17.0

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Post by amugs Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:11 pm

HUGE Scandinavian Block going to bring mondo snow and cold to Siberia !!

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Do_cnOUXkAE_uVb


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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:36 pm

@amugs wrote:HUGE Scandinavian Block going to bring mondo snow and cold to Siberia !!

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Do_cnOUXkAE_uVb


Dis is good! Quick update on the current Siberian snow cover anomalies...2018 is on the right 2009 on the left. Hmmm 2009 by this point in Oct. Looks pretty darn similar. And 2009 just so happened to be a mod el nino year and 2009 also saw CPK with alomst 52" of snow that year. It aint how ya start..its how ya finish.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Sscove10

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:45 am

The GEFS are showing some big boy and girl cold in the 3rd week of October.

Confidence beginning to grow that mid-late October we'll see a pattern change to colder than normal weather

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:08 am

Some of the latest long range models now have a weak/moderate basin wide Nino developing later this fall into the winter. Does anyone have a case study on snowfall amounts during those winters?
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:26 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Some of the latest long range models now have a weak/moderate basin wide Nino developing later this fall into the winter. Does anyone have a case study on snowfall amounts during those winters?

Here is the link to the Monthly and annual snowfall for CPK and the image of the SSTA for every Moderate El Nino between Dec1st - March 1st going back to the 1960's.  

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

09/10, 02/03, 94/95, 86/87, 68/69, 63/64 in this order

Of all these years listed 1994/1995 was the only one with well below normal snowfall for CPK at 11.8" for the season(eww).  The 94/95 season was preceded by a strong El Nino in 91/92; then a weak El Nino in 93/94.  It was also the only moderate El Nino listed above that was preceded by an El Nino conditions the prev winter.  Every other year listed was preceded by either weak La Nina conditions, or cold neutral conditions which is exactly what this winter season is preceded by.  

86/87 had avg to slightly below avg(23.1"), while 68/69 had slight above avg snowfall(30.2").  63/64, 02/03, and 09/10 all had well above snowfall.  

When or if I have time I will try and do the same analysis for the weak El Nino seasons.  



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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:36 pm

Pro Met Map NfsWx (Twitter) - he is excited about the winter prospects

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Dohuhy_XUAAXf9R

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:42 pm

Ben Noll release the October winter forecast of the NMME and guess which direction it went - warm (notoriously for this) or cold??
Anyone? Buehler? Frye?


Remember this is the Sept Run minus the October run as noted
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 DpI7NloU0AIwaUn

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 DpI7NluVsAAG3pb



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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:16 pm

@amugs wrote:Pro Met Map NfsWx (Twitter) - he is excited about the winter prospects

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Dohuhy_XUAAXf9R

Would love this to verify!!!!!
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Post by dkodgis Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:13 pm

This may bring CP out of hibernation.
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Post by docstox12 Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:25 am

@dkodgis wrote:This may bring CP out of hibernation.

LOL, between this terrible warm, humid cloudy summer and his beloved Yankees losing, don't think we will hear from CP until the first flakes fall.

The change to much cooler weather up here, temps at night getting into the 30's, will finally make it feel like Fall.Some of the long range maps are looking good.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:53 am

Here's a look at SSTA's for the month of September.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Ssta-gl_color

ENSO region 1+2 appeared to have warmed up substantially. The ONI values were negative for much of August and September but as of the last update for Week 01 of October it is up to +0.7. There is a lot of volatility with SSTA's in this region because its depth is shallow compared to the other regions. I would not put a whole lot stock into the warm-up here just yet.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

Last 7 days we're still seeing continued warmth over 1+2 and cooling over 3.4 and 4 regions. We'll see how this plays out in the month of October with the MJO currently in phase 2-3 heading into the COD.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Check out that warm pool in the GOA. Thats quite something. More -EPO/+PNA and less -NAO? Thats been the theme for the last 5 winters now.

Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 4nxkbd7.thumb.png.4e6c551d440bc6046f66e2170734f406

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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:10 am

Living in the Hudson Valley can be viva Las Vegas As a parent, I clearly remember two feet of snow three times either two weeks before or just before or after Halloween. For me it is great
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Post by mwilli5783 Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:17 pm

btw there's hurricane nadine out there..but this is a "fish storm"heading north toward the azores

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:12 pm

Latest UKMET seasonal winter outlook is out and its a winter lovers dream. Cold east of the Rockies with an active sub tropical jet along the east coast. Its a -EPO pattern with a -NAO and -AO developing as the winter moves along.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:49 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Latest UKMET seasonal winter outlook is out and its a winter lovers dream. Cold east of the Rockies with an active sub tropical jet along the east coast. Its a -EPO pattern with a -NAO and -AO developing as the winter moves along.

I will sign for that
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Post by frank 638 Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:22 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Latest UKMET seasonal winter outlook is out and its a winter lovers dream. Cold east of the Rockies with an active sub tropical jet along the east coast. Its a -EPO pattern with a -NAO and -AO developing as the winter moves along.
I am happy with that because it has been the worse summer ever for the humidity

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:42 pm

Look at the warm blob in the GOA giving is a POS PDO ala13-14 and more so 14-15 winter. That is a big factor for us, I'll take the EPO, PA and AO triplet and run. If we can get the NAO to help with either a Karnes Sea Block or Scandanavian Block will be very very happy around here. Low Solar is going to help out IMO with High Latitude blocking. 
Something g to note as well the Siberia snow pa kis going to build greatly as is the Canadian glacier along with Greenland. The cold is ready to invade and the mechanisms are there just give it sometime.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:12 pm

For years with a big Hcane into the Panhandle the resultant Dec temp
Long Range Thread 17.0 - Page 4 19080710

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Math23x7 Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:54 pm

October 7th, 2002: The temperature in NYC was in the mid-70s.  Then next day, it began a stretch of 189 consecutive days without a high temperature at or above 70 degrees, which over the past couple of decades is the longest such stretch.  Not until April 15th, 2003 did it hit 70 again.  In fact, from October 8th-31st, the highest temperature in NYC was 64 degrees.

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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:08 am

big pattern change starting today and lasting through the end of the month. say goodbye to summer and the WAR. +pna, -epo and ao along with a very active sub tropical jet. trough will remain in east for rest of October and will actually strengthen as we head towards end of month. if this pattern sets up at some point in winter it could be epic. mike we probably will not see 70* the rest of this month.
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:30 am

the pna ridge on all ensemble guidance in the 8+ day range is beautiful (gets stronger as we go out in time which is unusual for ensembles). centered in western Canada and extends from northern Rockies into arctic circle. also to note the trough off the southern cal and Mexican west coast (sub tropical jet). any interactions with this jet and northern stream timed right an I can envision snow for late October for at least parts of our area. let the fun begin.
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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:43 am

I have to say though there will be no Nao help but that's fine with me as mug stated above. in winter this upcoming pattern would be fun very active with small to medium-sized storms every few days
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Post by rb924119 Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:33 am

@algae888 wrote:big pattern change starting today and lasting through the end of the month. say goodbye to summer and the WAR.  +pna, -epo and ao  along with a very active sub tropical jet. trough will remain in east for rest of October and will actually strengthen as we head towards end of month. if this pattern sets up at some point in winter it could be epic. mike we probably will not see 70* the rest of this month.

Not sold that this is a true pattern change; I think that holds off until November. Check out my video thread for the reasons why (if you're interested, of course Smile ) However, it will be welcomed relief hahaha

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Post by algae888 Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:58 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@algae888 wrote:big pattern change starting today and lasting through the end of the month. say goodbye to summer and the WAR.  +pna, -epo and ao  along with a very active sub tropical jet. trough will remain in east for rest of October and will actually strengthen as we head towards end of month. if this pattern sets up at some point in winter it could be epic. mike we probably will not see 70* the rest of this month.

Not sold that this is a true pattern change; I think that holds off until November. Check out my video thread for the reasons why (if you're interested, of course Smile ) However, it will be welcomed relief hahaha
Hey rb i checked out your video a few days ago. Not saying you are wrong i am just going off guidence. Trough east ridge west looks solid on guidence which is different than the persistent ridge we have seen. Also each reinforcing trough looks deeper than previous one. Today first drops in followed by approximately Wednesday and then the one around day 10 which could give us some well below normal readings and possibly snow for our area if all works out. I am not a fan of october snows as usually the following winter sucks. Just my two cents and thanks for your insights as i always look forward to reading/watching them
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:03 am

Jamstec seasonal outlook has a moderate strength central-east based Nino for the upcoming winter. From what I can tell off the small maps, temps look to be near normal or slightly above with above normal precip.
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