MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Eye spy due northward progression Not that it's coming up here, but it gives me a chance for a couple of my ideas to have merit. We shall see. At work, so I cannot discuss deeply to what im referring, but basically my predicted landfall point as well as ideas I presented a couple days ago. Be back later!

Damn Ray  You beat me to it.  I wanted post that and give you kudos.  Frictional forces, Convergence over land, lowering pressures...I remember

Well, thank you, Scott haha if somebody can post an animation of the microwave imagery, they can see that the ideas did prove to have merit. As Florence encountered the coastline, it actually did move northward along the coast before landfalling, and to my knowledge, NO model had shown that. This is not to brag, but instead to show how forecasters can still add a lot of value over raw model output, and how meteorology is much greater than modelology.

Radz wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:WHAT THE F(excuse my language)..WHAT ABOUT MANDATORY EVACUATION DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND!!!!!! NEW BERN IS UNDER WATER...100 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN RESCUED AND AT LEAST 100 MORE CALLS PENDING..People on roof of homes people trapped in cars...New Bern floods on a regular basis....there are 70 plus mph winds they are saying and some parts have already gotten 20 plus inches of rain and worst yet to come...what is wrong with people....I do not have sympathy.... And if rescuers are hurt because of you  you should be arrested and if you knew me personally you would be shocked i feel this way....ridiculous!!!! If you can not afford to leave for hotel. Find a god darn shelter....you were warned...ughhh  rant over..

Reports of up to 250 rescued now and 150 more awaiting... totally agree!!

The Mets and media warned everyone. There is literally no excuse. Evacuations began on Monday. That's how confident they were this storm will come. You can't fix stupid. I hope they're rescued, but if conditions for rescuers become dangerous, then what are they to do?

The slow nature of this storn will cause Cat 4 or Cat 5 type damage even though it is a Cat 2

syosnow94 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Sorry for my bad Lang i was so upset..don't usually curse..and   now a family  that is in attic because water up to chest in house

Darwin’s theory of evolution at its finest. Unfort

Exactly the line I use when speaking to my students about stuff we talk about in the news. I SWEAR TO GOD IF I WAS IN CHARGE DOWN THERE I WOULD NOT SEND HELP

I concur - people even on Ocracoke Island 200 from reports did not evacuate and the town officials said sorry no help is coming if you call - right call. No one EVER believe in MOTHER NATURES FURY!

here are our effects next week - rain and a good amount:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Eye spy due northward progression Not that it's coming up here, but it gives me a chance for a couple of my ideas to have merit. We shall see. At work, so I cannot discuss deeply to what im referring, but basically my predicted landfall point as well as ideas I presented a couple days ago. Be back later!

Damn Ray  You beat me to it.  I wanted post that and give you kudos.  Frictional forces, Convergence over land, lowering pressures...I remember

Well, thank you, Scott haha if somebody can post an animation of the microwave imagery, they can see that the ideas did prove to have merit. As Florence encountered the coastline, it actually did move northward along the coast before landfalling, and to my knowledge, NO model had shown that. This is not to brag, but instead to show how forecasters can still add a lot of value over raw model output, and how meteorology is much greater than modelology.

Here you go. Clearly visible on the Microwave. Last 48hr loop

The radar loop is so mesmerizingly beautiful I can’t stop watching

sroc4 wrote:

Saw on another board that USGA reporting that Atlantic Beach near Morehead, City, NC reporting almost 35" of rain with at least 24more hours to go.  

Reading some of the local NWS a statements out of NC, many are expected to crest between 12-20 feet ABOVE flood stage come early next week OUCH

They use tipping buckets and are affected by the wind, causing artificially higher rainfall amounts.

moleson wrote:They use tipping buckets and are affected by the wind, causing  artificially higher rainfall amounts.

Interesting

sroc4 wrote:

moleson wrote:They use tipping buckets and are affected by the wind, causing  artificially higher rainfall amounts.

Interesting

That said lets say 12" or 1 foot of that 35" rain total is artifcat due to wind interference..that still means approx 2 feet of rain have fallen with much more to go. Still incredible.

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

moleson wrote:They use tipping buckets and are affected by the wind, causing  artificially higher rainfall amounts.

Interesting

That said lets say 12" or 1 foot of that 35" rain total is artifcat due to wind interference..that still means approx 2 feet of rain have fallen with much more to go.  Still incredible.  

And it can go the other way, with wind blowing the rain sideways, you can under report rain totals....

This was this mornings landfall statement by NHC.



Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
735 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE FLORENCE FINALLY MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence made landfall along
the coast of North Carolina at 715 AM EDT...1115 UTC...near 34.2N
77.8W...which is near Wrightsville Beach. Maximum sustained winds
were estimated to be 90 mph (150 km/h), and the central pressure was
estimated to be 958 mb based on reports from the NOAA NOS observing
station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach.

SUMMARY OF 715 AM EDT...1115 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 77.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

moleson wrote:They use tipping buckets and are affected by the wind, causing  artificially higher rainfall amounts.

This is incorrect. TC's are actually a undersample situation due to high rainfall rates and the high winds.

Frank_Wx wrote:The slow nature of this storn will cause Cat 4 or Cat 5 type damage even though it is a Cat 2

I couldn't agree more Frank. I thought a lot about that yesterday as the Cat status kept dropping and how that really was misleading and not a true reflection of the potential for damage and loss of life. It was a really bad time for anyone to let their guard down.

It actually got me to pondering whether there's a better way to communicate the danger and damage potential beyond just tracking categories to wind speed. Harvey and Florence were slow, grinding, rain-dumping machines. If that's a pattern we may need to come up with some kind of damage potential index that better incorporates wind speed, the surge, and the rain, with other factors like storm size, flood potential, topography and elevation, proximity to water, ground saturation, soil type, and even the kinds of homes and buildings in the area and the ability for people to escape.

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

Saw on another board that USGA reporting that Atlantic Beach near Morehead, City, NC reporting almost 35" of rain with at least 24more hours to go.  

I don't know if you know this area..It's beautiful..shackleford island with the wild horses..the beaches...the beautiful house my parents where to buy next year is probably gone....I hope the horses are ok...they have been on island for 100's of years..

Mom, I read a few days ago a local official saying "Don't worry about the horses, they will be fine". I hope he is right about that.
This storm is nearly stationary, flooding will be extreme.That rain report of 35 inches earlier is mind boggling.

docstox12 wrote:Mom, I read a few days ago a local official saying "Don't worry about the horses, they will be fine". I hope he is right about that.
This storm is nearly stationary, flooding will be extreme.That rain report of 35 inches earlier is mind boggling.

I hope so too...I see they are out evacuating people..can't stop watching

Just west of Wilmington has been sitting under the stationary eyewall for 6 straight hours and picked up 18” of rain during that time and God knows how much wind. Holy Shit!

She's heading west, not south... SC is going to be spared the worst of it...

HORRIBLE.....I am.watching..a man had to be extracted from his home a big tree fell on it..they had surgeons come in to possibly amputate leg or legs on scene....wife and baby DEAD......

weatherwatchermom wrote:Again when they tell you to get out you do.....I am.watching..a man had to be extracted from his home a big tree fell on it..they had surgeons come in to possibly amputate leg or legs on scene....wife and baby DEAD......

wwmom,take some advise from an old man. I know it's like driving by a car wreck, and you just gotta look, but give yourself a break and step away from the tv for a while. You're gonnna make yourself crazy. Go have an adult beverage and try to relax a bit. I can feel your passion, concern and at times anger coming thru your texts. I hope all your family and friends have found safe haven.

PS-as doc said, I also saw on the news that the horses should fare well. The reporter said they knew by instinct what to do, and as you said they've been there for 100's of years so they must be doing something right

GreyBeard wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Again when they tell you to get out you do.....I am.watching..a man had to be extracted from his home a big tree fell on it..they had surgeons come in to possibly amputate leg or legs on scene....wife and baby DEAD......

wwmom,take some advise from an old man. I know it's like driving by a car wreck, and you just gotta look, but give yourself a break and step away from the tv for a while. You're gonnna make yourself crazy. Go have an adult beverage and try to relax a bit. I can feel your passion, concern and at times anger coming thru your texts. I hope all your family and friends have found safe haven.

PS-as doc said, I also saw on the news that the horses should fare well. The reporter said they knew by instinct what to do, and as you said they've been there for 100's of years so they must be doing something right

Ha..I did am watching netflix...I am recovering from pneumonia so I am not out and about...def turned it off...family and friends are ok.... Tx

In some ways the weakening before reaching the coast was a blessing, but I wonder if the drop in (wind) strength caused anyone to let their guard down seeing it go from Cat 4 to Cat 2. I think the NHC and government did a good job of conveying that the category drop in no way diminished the potential impact of the storm surge and rains, but some people don't always listen to the details.

Am looking at the indie eutro ensembles #6 is aweful, has her re-emerge off the midatlantic courve around and hit the same area of NC as a 985mb cane on day 10, no joke, those of you who have the ability to look its unreal, highly doubtful but jeeze.

00z Euro ensembles had a slew of runs with 6+ inches of rain. I know we are concerned for the folks down south myself included but this is def something we have to watch.