MAJOR HURRICANE FLORENCE part 2: Will have historic impacts to the Carolina coastline and areas inland

NHC 5PM update:

weatherwatchermom wrote:https://www.surfline.com/surf-reports-forecasts-cams-map/@33.23409295522519,-79.08233642578126,8z

https://www.earthcam.com/events/extremeweather/

https://explore.org/livecams/frying-pan/frying-pan-cam

web cams for nc

I wonder how long the cams will hold up, especially the frying pan cam. 34 miles off the coast of Cape Fear. The sound of the wind is something, but I don't think the flag is gonna make it. The hurricane is nowhere in sight yet there.

Getting word of a failed ERC. Could keep her from regaining Cat 4 strength before landfall. Lets hope

If this sharp turn to the west latest models are showing is real the storm surge will be destructive. It is Sandy-esque in a sense. They're better off hoping it a normal northwesterly track, while still bad, won't be AS bad.

Are these people trying to commit suicide?


Jamie Mitchem
@DrMitchem
Up to 200 people decided to stay on Ocracoke Island, NC. There is no road to the island, ferry service has now stopped, emergency response has now stopped. They have decided to stay on an island that might go underwater. Don't be that person.

12:37 PM - Sep 12, 2018
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557 people are talking about this

Probably I have visited ocracke and it flooded in a normal rain storm...when I heard this morning that many were staying..I thought wow..how crazy..what are you going to do to save your house when a 10 plus wall of water coming at you

weatherwatchermom wrote:Probably I have visited ocracke and it flooded in a normal rain storm...when I heard this morning that many were staying..I thought wow..how crazy..what are you going to do to save your house when a 10 plus wall of water coming at you

Those people are gonna party it up and be so drunk that they literally won’t know what hit them. Kind of cool in a way

My former next door neighbors moved down to a town called Frisco, NC which is not far from Ocracoke Island. When i texted them yesterday to ask if they evacuated yet, I was told that they decided to ride the storm out with a newly bought generator. Thats insane!!! The wife and I went down there just this past July to visit them. I pray to god it won't be the last. Edit: My avatar just so happens to be a picture taken a couple of months ago of me and my wife on a ferry out at Ocracoke Island.

Just heard a MET on TV say Florence is gonna bring 6 inches of rain up here middle of next week. Could it BE we actually get a taste of her?!

SoulSingMG wrote:Just heard a MET on TV say Florence is gonna bring 6 inches of rain up here middle of next week. Could it BE we actually get a taste of her?!

A week out? Really? Too early imo, she also has had a lot of dry air come in the south side, down to 115 mph winds...

SoulSingMG wrote:Just heard a MET on TV say Florence is gonna bring 6 inches of rain up here middle of next week. Could it BE we actually get a taste of her?!

6 inches of rain , no wind? I will pass, sick and tired of rain.  It feels like it has rained more days than not since may. And what channel was that?

Did anyone see what happens with the euro at hr 168, remnants intensify to a 994mb LP over the northeast giving us rain and wind.

Hey guys! Sorry I have been so distant. Been busy all summer between work and studying for the CPA. I am back up in Binghamton getting my masters in accounting. Will be finished in May. Currently have 3 parts out of 4 of the CPA exam passed. Plan on finishing the last part before thanksgiving! After that I will have a lot more free time to return to weather, although of course I have always been quietly tracking and enjoying the weather. Sorry for being distant. Will check in as time permits, the CPA exam studying really takes my time away haha! Hope all is well with all of you!

Down to 115 mph and possibly no NC landfall. Ouch if she doesn’t make a direct hit and weakens. It’ll be good for the residents but bad for meteorologists

Syo. The way it looks now it will be Cat 2 at 11pm

oldtimer wrote:Syo. The way it looks now it will be Cat 2 at 11pm

Mthank goidness for those people. The rain is going to be insane though. Tons of flooding. But there’s a HUUUUUUUUUUUGE difference between a cat 4 and a cat 2. This is why people ignore warnings evacuation warnings and choose to ride it out.

syosnow94 wrote:Down to 115 mph and possibly no NC landfall. Ouch if she doesn’t make a direct hit and weakens. It’ll be good for the residents but bad for meteorologists

It sure will be close to the border, but NC still gets crushed.. NE Quadrant most dangerous... it still needs to cross over warm waters of gulf stream and there is less shear closer to the coast..

CrankyWeather gotta be pissed. He was shutting on the EURO and it wound up being right again

oldtimer wrote:Syo. The way it looks now it will be Cat 2 at 11pm

Air recon in there now, still recording Cat 3 winds at about 115 mph, pressure at 956

Could just be the shape has changed but the last couple frames looks like it is moving NNW not NW....could just be some eye trickery

Reorganizing pretty well the past hour or so. Sheer seems to have minimized and there was an almost immediate response. If this continues I would not bet against it holding at cat 3 strength. At this latitude not sure about strengthening but the gulf stream could help it a bit as well.

Such a strange and wonderful randomness to it's evolution. Pretty humbling for all concerned I should think. Still so much to learn about these.

bloc1357 wrote:Could just be the shape has changed but the last couple frames looks like it is moving NNW not NW....could just be some eye trickery

Nope. It’s been doing it all day.  Another fantastic video by Levi

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

11 PM Advisory now a Cat 2

Pressure now up to 957mb

storm is wimping out,dry air got in from the south side of the storm disrupting the eye wall also looks like it shifted to a north-northwest now

Frank_Wx wrote:Are these people trying to commit suicide?


Jamie Mitchem
@DrMitchem
Up to 200 people decided to stay on Ocracoke Island, NC. There is no road to the island, ferry service has now stopped, emergency response has now stopped. They have decided to stay on an island that might go underwater. Don't be that person.

12:37 PM - Sep 12, 2018
971
557 people are talking about this

Reminds me of a group of people back in, I think ,1969 who decided to ride out a hurricane in a three story cinderblock Motel a block away from the Gulf in Mississippi or Alabama.They all died.These are the risks people have to live with when they choose to live near the ocean in hurricane prone areas.Foolishly risking your life is just plain suicidal.

mwilli5783 wrote:storm is wimping out,dry air got in from the south side of the storm disrupting the eye wall also looks like it shifted to a north-northwest now

This is very good news! Hope that trend continues before landfall.Anyway, Lee Goldberg mentioned an interesting fact that very few deaths are caused by the wind but many more by storm surge and heavy rain flooding.