October 2018 Observations & Discussions

Frost and Freeze watches and warnings up for NNJ, HV, and LHV. Can't post maps.
Last week of month FV3 the new GFS and old one crush us with a wicked storm.

amugs wrote:Frost and Freeze watches and warnings up for NNJ, HV, and LHV. Can't post maps.
Last week of month FV3 the new GFS and old one crush us with a wicked storm.

holy crap gfs 10 days!!! What a wind storm that would be not go b much snow too close then right over us.

Earthlight

"The threat for a significant storm along the East Coast from 10/25 - 10/30 can be traced back to the larger scale pattern evolution in the North Pacific Ocean. A jet extension and poleward amplification of a ridge into British Columbia jump starts the pattern change."

Wow 12z gfs has one big storm bomb at the coast then a larger low forms immediately to the east with a huge wind and precip field. Both would be quite damaging. Even more so if we got snow in any areas with full leaves which is most. Cmc has a strong storm but moves towards cape and is more compact. 00z euro has a small low off se coast but nothing in range to our area.

I noted doesn't this energy relate to a tropical system from the pacific moving inland then across southern states? Will its track have a big impact on if we see a noreasters or not?

First trace of snow in Binghamton last night. Cars were covered along with rooftops

aiannone wrote:First trace of snow in Binghamton last night. Cars were covered along with rooftops

NICE!

Got down to 41* a nice cool crisp morning

Low 37*

broke the 32° mark, currently 30.5° - hopefully only 1 more cutting of the grass 

Woke up from a long summers nap to 28.4 this morning.

It's about time. One of the latest first freezes I've seen around here in a while. The normal first freeze is October 7th in the HV. Better late than never.

Now I need some white stuff.

30° was my low, hope the mosqitos are gone, they have been relentless!

Heavy frost here on the north shore of LI. Had to use the scraper this morning

31.4* at my house on LI last night. First freeze of the year

Wow to 12z euro day 7 to 9 major noreasters 4 to 5 inches rain and 40 to 65 mph wind gusts.

Lee Goldberg mentioned coastal storm threat for next weekend just now.

If Euro were more west we would be in big trouble superstorm noreaster 956mb looks just like a hurricane very symetrical on this run, has wind gusts over the water to 147mph!  Def go have watch this.

NAO dropping down to negative
AO dropping down to negative
PNA rising

Everything is pointing to a noreaster but the question is how strong? It's always about timing.

If the trailing shortwave was just a little faster on the 0z Euro, the storm would have been near the coast. This has huge potential to be a very strong coastal storm.

Snow88 wrote:NAO dropping down to negative
AO dropping down to negative
PNA rising

Everything is pointing to a noreaster but the question is how strong? It's always about timing.

If the trailing shortwave was just a little faster on the 0z Euro, the storm would have been near the coast. This has huge potential to be a very strong coastal storm.

i looked again at euro and I know winds can b exaggerated.i but cape cod gets wreaked even into eastern ct. But cape gets 80 mph gusts verbatim.

I just realized this is also on or close to sandy anniversary.

SNow squall line N & W tonight and BN air behind the front reinforcing the cold. COUld have a hard freeze in the burbs Sunday night into Monday.
From SuperSTorm on 33Rain WXBoard



Euro bring accumulating snow N&W Thursday.


Then the explosive pattern sets up for next weekend into Mon - Tuesday time frame.

sandy came in 10/27-28 period 2013

mwilli5783 wrote:sandy came in 10/27-28 period 2013

close, 2012 not 2013.

So can I assume since we are within 10 days maybe 7 and no one is discuss the possible noreasters that its expected to stay ots or is everyone loving this weather and just too busy. Just wondering what Scott frank Nutley etc are thinking. 06z gfs was a pretty big hit. If this was winter u would be all over this the precip potential if close enough would at least be a Godzilla.

jmanley32 wrote:So can I assume since we are within 10 days maybe 7 and no one is discuss the possible noreasters that its expected to stay ots or is everyone loving this weather and just too busy. Just wondering what Scott frank Nutley etc are thinking. 06z gfs was a pretty big hit. If this was winter u would be all over this the precip potential if close enough would at least be a Godzilla.

I will probably add some input early this week. I have beyond busy these last couple weeks since that last outlook I posted. I will also be verifying the parts of that forecast that are in the books so far, and summarize how it looks compared to newer data for those parts yet to come.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So can I assume since we are within 10 days maybe 7 and no one is discuss the possible noreasters that its expected to stay ots or is everyone loving this weather and just too busy. Just wondering what Scott frank Nutley etc are thinking. 06z gfs was a pretty big hit. If this was winter u would be all over this the precip potential if close enough would at least be a Godzilla.

I will probably add some input early this week. I have beyond busy these last couple weeks since that last outlook I posted. I will also be verifying the parts of that forecast that are in the books so far, and summarize how it looks compared to newer data for those parts yet to come.

But there is the potential for a monster nor easter no? I mean there have been operationals that show a brutal storm and ensembles as i posted above with ridiculously low pressures.  All just barely enough offshore to minimize impacts.

06z GFS WOW, BTW this produces snow on Euro which is similar. It appears there are two LP and the second may be the one that comes into the area, not sure though. The Euro ensembles are all over the pace in placement and timing and which low, so its still far too early.



On a side note some night pretty high wind gusts today, im surprised no wind advisory easily 40mph plus had some tree branches one large come down in neighborhood.

I wonder why National Weather Service has not issued a wind advisory because all morning long it has been very windy. And I have been driving I-95 and I've been noticing a lot of snow plows on the highways and around my area I guess they are practicing for the winter p hopefully it will be a nice snowy winter for us