October 2018 Observations & Discussions

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:So can I assume since we are within 10 days maybe 7 and no one is discuss the possible noreasters that its expected to stay ots or is everyone loving this weather and just too busy. Just wondering what Scott frank Nutley etc are thinking. 06z gfs was a pretty big hit. If this was winter u would be all over this the precip potential if close enough would at least be a Godzilla.

I will probably add some input early this week. I have beyond busy these last couple weeks since that last outlook I posted. I will also be verifying the parts of that forecast that are in the books so far, and summarize how it looks compared to newer data for those parts yet to come.

But there is the potential for a monster nor easter no? I mean there have been operationals that show a brutal storm and ensembles as i posted above with ridiculously low pressures.  All just barely enough offshore to minimize impacts.

06z GFS WOW, BTW this produces snow on Euro which is similar. It appears there are two LP and the second may be the one that comes into the area, not sure though. The Euro ensembles are all over the pace in placement and timing and which low, so its still far too early.



On a side note some night pretty high wind gusts today, im surprised no wind advisory easily 40mph plus had some tree branches one large come down in neighborhood.

I wonder why National Weather Service has not issued a wind advisory because all morning long it has been very windy. And I have been driving I-95 and I've been noticing a lot of snow plows on the highways and around my area I guess they are practicing for the winter p hopefully it will be a nice snowy winter for us

frank 638 wrote:I wonder why National Weather Service has not issued a wind advisory because all morning long it has been very windy. And I have been driving I-95 and I've been noticing a lot of snow plows on the highways and around my area I guess they are practicing for the winter p hopefully it will be a nice snowy winter for us

They issued a special weather statement for 30-40mph gusts with isolated 45mph, but IMO 45mph seems to have been common.

18z GFS is more amped

Snow88 wrote:18z GFS is more amped

Jeeze you aint kidding, right along jersey shore into LI and inland from there, would be a damaging wind and rain storm.  All models are ob board, its just a matter of timing and how close it gets.

And for entertainment only the SNOW map.

still a lot of uncertainty with the weekend nor'easter. the one thing I am seeing is a trend colder. while the coastal plain looks to be all rain att inland could see there first snow of the season. to bad this is happening in October. hopefully we will see a similar pattern come winter.

38* so far for my morning low at least the winds are calm

algae888 wrote:still a lot of uncertainty with the weekend nor'easter. the one thing I am seeing is a trend colder. while the coastal plain looks to be all rain att inland could see there first snow of the season. to bad this is happening in October. hopefully we will see a similar pattern come winter.

00z euro brings some snow down to the coast never know I believe 2011 was supposed to be all rain and it ended up giving us like several inches but a whole beck of a lot of problems too. Oh yes this would be beautiful in winter.

32*, 1st freezing temp at the Shore. Leaves are still green, though...

Broke 30° overnight, my low was 29.5°

low of 34* last night!

The potential Nor'easter next week could be a prelude for what's to come this winter. One thing you will notice from this 500mb map is the high latitude blocking is confined to the Pacific. The EPO/PNA should be in predominately negative stages as a result of incoming El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific. However, it looks like the NAO this winter will be in a predominately positive stage. No shocker here. This has been the story of our past winters for what...the last decade? Thought toward the end of last winter we did see a nice -NAO stretch but it affected our spring more than winter in my opinion.



Frequent coastal storms this winter are likely but we'll need to time the southern branch well with the northern branch to get the cold air and right track. Fast movers most likely.

Frank_Wx wrote:The potential Nor'easter next week could be a prelude for what's to come this winter. One thing you will notice from this 500mb map is the high latitude blocking is confined to the Pacific. The EPO/PNA should be in predominately negative stages as a result of incoming El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific. However, it looks like the NAO this winter will be in a predominately positive stage. No shocker here. This has been the story of our past winters for what...the last decade? Thought toward the end of last winter we did see a nice -NAO stretch but it affected our spring more than winter in my opinion.



Frequent coastal storms this winter are likely but we'll need to time the southern branch well with the northern branch to get the cold air and right track. Fast movers most likely.

so you say next week now for a potential storm so this weekend should b ok? So that puts Halloween in jeopardy then ugh. I hate all those tense timing moments b4 storms means we prolly won't know much for this one until the weekend. Nam leads the way lol. Also I noted on surface maps it looks like part of the southern branch is or will b from hurricane willa? Is this correct if so will her speed remnants I to the US be a big factor?

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The potential Nor'easter next week could be a prelude for what's to come this winter. One thing you will notice from this 500mb map is the high latitude blocking is confined to the Pacific. The EPO/PNA should be in predominately negative stages as a result of incoming El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific. However, it looks like the NAO this winter will be in a predominately positive stage. No shocker here. This has been the story of our past winters for what...the last decade? Thought toward the end of last winter we did see a nice -NAO stretch but it affected our spring more than winter in my opinion.



Frequent coastal storms this winter are likely but we'll need to time the southern branch well with the northern branch to get the cold air and right track. Fast movers most likely.

so you say next week now for a potential storm so this weekend should b ok? So that puts Halloween in jeopardy then ugh. I hate all those tense timing moments b4 storms means we prolly won't know much for this one until the weekend. Nam leads the way lol. Also I noted on surface maps it looks like part of the southern branch is or will b from hurricane willa? Is this correct if so will her speed remnants I to the US be a big factor?

It's possible the main event happens this Saturday as opposed to Sunday. Still too soon to know for sure. Yes, Willa remnants will be a factor in the storm threat this weekend. If there is a phase with northern energy it could be quite a doozy. The EPS are especially threatening. They show a +PNA with an eastern trough trying to go negative. We definitely have to pay close attention to the Nor'easter this weekend.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:The potential Nor'easter next week could be a prelude for what's to come this winter. One thing you will notice from this 500mb map is the high latitude blocking is confined to the Pacific. The EPO/PNA should be in predominately negative stages as a result of incoming El Nino and warm sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific. However, it looks like the NAO this winter will be in a predominately positive stage. No shocker here. This has been the story of our past winters for what...the last decade? Thought toward the end of last winter we did see a nice -NAO stretch but it affected our spring more than winter in my opinion.



Frequent coastal storms this winter are likely but we'll need to time the southern branch well with the northern branch to get the cold air and right track. Fast movers most likely.

so you say next week now for a potential storm so this weekend should b ok? So that puts Halloween in jeopardy then ugh. I hate all those tense timing moments b4 storms means we prolly won't know much for this one until the weekend. Nam leads the way lol. Also I noted on surface maps it looks like part of the southern branch is or will b from hurricane willa? Is this correct if so will her speed remnants I to the US be a big factor?

It's possible the main event happens this Saturday as opposed to Sunday. Still too soon to know for sure. Yes, Willa remnants will be a factor in the storm threat this weekend. If there is a phase with northern energy it could be quite a doozy. The EPS are especially threatening. They show a +PNA with an eastern trough trying to go negative. We definitely have to pay close attention to the Nor'easter this weekend.

yeah I been post some of the eps go nuts into 950s even one I think was 945mb but mostly crushed cape and your fav place lol. Is there any resemblance to the 2011 snowstorm and is it possible it could generate its own cold to bring even the coast snow?

It will be rain for us.

Snow well north.

Looks like on GFS and Euro most of the big ticket set up areas are similar, but to the N and NE there is much more of a block on the euro than the GFS leading to a much stronger HP to the NE (approx 1036mb on the Euro vs 1028-29mb on GFS) and a neg tilted trough on the euro vs a more positive to maybe neutral at best on GFS.    I personally think the euro is correct. Both GEFS and EPS telegraphing a mod-strong neg NAO( -2 std deviations) that transitions towards positive.  You can see it in both the graphs and the 500mb height anomaly maps.  This neg NAO transition towards positive historically has telegraphed very strong Nor' Easters.  My bet is at the very least some of our boys and girls to the N&W of NYC will be reporting some snow accumulations and the I-95 corridor is in for some very windy and rainy conditions with maybe even a few flakes flying on the back side toward the coast.  Some serious lajke effect bands should set up and LI may even see a few flakes from LI Sound effect snow.   Still time though so details are def not set in stone, but my spidey senses are tingling.  

euro is quite impressive. Surface depiction does not match 500mb. The precip to the east WILL NOT look like that if this 500mb verifies I can guarantee it.

sroc4 wrote:euro is quite impressive.  Surface depiction does not match 500mb.  The precip to the east WILL NOT look like that if this 500mb verifies I can guarantee it.  

I must be learning cuz I looked at the run before this and said that precip all flying to the east doesn't look right. If the euro wind gusts pan out high wind warnings will be widespread along and somewhat inland if not higher as some show gusts above 60 mph. I know it can be over done but I think the potential is there for some pretty severe winds if everything comes together. Eps Def has some members supporting these kind of winds in past runs.

Whenever I see
Jman posting about wind I feel like he must have spent time as a teenager watching Dorothy get swept away in the Wizard of Oz in a constant loop while sniffing glue or something.......

Just messing with you Jman

syosnow94 wrote:Whenever I see
Jman posting about wind I feel like he must have spent time as a teenager watching Dorothy get swept away in the Wizard of Oz in a constant loop while sniffing glue or something.......

Just messing with you Jman

loved wizard of oz but nope never huffed anything. And the tornado part terrified me when I was real little.

And we have had enough rain if there's going to be anything interesting about this storm it will be the wind. Another plain rain storm and nothing else will just rain on my parade lol

The GFS and EURO are in agreement. Nor'easter coming. Timing looks to be 4am Saturday until Midnight Sunday. I put the forum in Storm Mode.

This completely derails Halloween plans.

Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS and EURO are in agreement. Nor'easter coming. Timing looks to be 4am Saturday until Midnight Sunday. I put the forum in Storm Mode.

This completely derails Halloween plans.

wow that's a long noreasters!! With those winds not go b good if winds go any higher than 30 to 50. I'm assuming those are gusts. Midnight Sunday as in Sunday morning or Monday morning? Yeah but at least 31st will be okay for the little ones.

Does this have potential to be stronger than operational show? Euro ensembles have some pretty serious ones that would increase you numbers on the scroll.

Tight Gradient


Wow Frank putting us in STORM MODE this far out is.............

Any wintry threat from this system is gone, in my humble opinion. When you look at the Northern Hemispheric pattern and setup, an inland track, or at the very eastern edge of the most likely spread, would be a coastal hugger. The rapid transition from a -NAO toward a positive mode (1), the lack of a true -AO (2) and 50/50 low argue (3) for the disjointedness we are currently seeing in H5 vorticity maxima. However, they also argue against and work to partially offset the positive influences of the brief PNA (4)/EPO (5) ridge spike coupled with a -WPO (6), in that our source of colder air and northern stream energy will be mitigated. Additionally, the expected further southeastward displacement of the developing/deepening Eastern U.S. trough which would allow the storm track to trend further east (in response to 4-6 above) will also be offset and likely end up yielding to the strengthening ridging developing out ahead of it (in response to 1-3 above), bolstered further by the MJO progression, recent SOI positive state, the previous Niño 1.2 temperature spike, and still anomalously warm western Atlantic. Lastly, the addition of tropical remnants does not help our cause, as that will likely assist a bit in further geopotential height rises via diabatic heat release. While we will still see a storm, it will be a fast moving and likely weak system with a lack of any substantial and sustainable cold air for our region, as we will be warm-sectored. though unsettled conditions will persist for a few days as the multiple spokes of energy rotate through the broad-based, yet lifting trough.