October Discussion & Observations

Ask and you shall receive Alex!

Hit 93 yesterday. 54 now with .25" of rain since yesterday.

91° yesterday, 51° now.. funny how cold 50° feels when it's raining!

48 degrees with rain.That old song "What A Difference A Day Makes" sure is appropriate today.Nice to see some rain, it was drying up bad around here.Looks like possible frost tomorrow night.Anyway, sure feels like a Fall day today with the trees changing, shorter day and cooler temps.Wind is going to pick up tomorrow should see leaves flying all over the place.

Dunnzoo wrote:91° yesterday,   51° now.. funny how cold 50° feels when it's raining!

Wait till Saturday morning - Jeepies Scoobie!!
Frost and Freeze for many of us.

I like what I am seeing LR in the pattern evolution as we build heights over the top and we have troughs sliding in.
The AMO is slowly cooling and will help to knock down the Death Ridge overall.
Comparative Maps showing this: Last year on the left this year on the right.
NE PAC warming will help build that AL LP and kick he ridge up in the west, BC region.



Also region 4 is much warmer than the rest of the tropical pac Nino Zones


3.4 climbing which is great news too


1.2

Build the pack

51* for my low

I think Doc left his refrigerator door open. The wind is about 15 mph with some stiff gusts, and very cool.  It is ringing the wind chimes and making the trees dance so I know it is  gusty.

Frost Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
409 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-051200-
/O.CON.KOKX.FR.Y.0002.191005T0400Z-191005T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
409 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures falling into the mid and upper 30s will
result in frost formation.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut,
Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Northern Middlesex,
and Northern New London Counties. In New York, Orange and
Putnam Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight to 8 AM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps to protect tender plants from the cold.

43* here in Albany with frost advisories in effect.

There are several coworkers in the office that have lived in the Albany area for decades and I brought up the freak early season snowstorm that happened there on this day in 1987 when 6.5" fell in Albany and over a foot of snow fell in nearby higher elevations. They mentioned that they were without power (and school) for a week. Five days before the snowstorm, it was 80* in Albany. And not long after the storm passed, it warmed up to normal high temperatures in the 60s. I mentioned that downstate, we had our own similar event 10/29/11. Of course, we all know how that winter turned out.

One of the coworkers mentioned the May 18, 2002 snow event that gave Albany several inches of snow and mentioned how strange it was given the 2001-02 was uneventful. She then mentioned that her family loves to go skiing and they hope that lots of snow falls during the winter to make it happen. My response: hope it doesn't snow within the next month and a half. If it does, you can count on a waste of a winter. We saw that with the aforementioned 10/29/11 storm preceding the 2011-12 winter and we saw that with the 11/15/18 and how the 2018-19 winter turned out. Yes, we did have the 11/7/12 post-Sandy snowstorm which preceded a winter with the 2/8/13 event (aka Nemo). But after 11/7/12, it took until the last week of January to get another one inch plus event.

At any rate, after this brief chill down, the high temperatures here in Albany look to get back into the normal highs in the 60s where it is expected to be much of next week.

Almost 8 am and 31 degrees here. The deck has a minute film of glaze, it's slippery, and a tiny bit of frost on the pumpkin. I guess this means we have another 90 degree day coming.

48 here

Euro has a lot of rain next week with a blocking pattern. Interesting to see what happens.

41* for my low here. Not quite sure if this is accurate on my system, it needs to be recalibrated before the big season begins!!

Morning low of44 deg Finally feeling like fall and October baseball i was at the game last night let’s go Yankees

Low of 32 this morning with frost on the roof.First official frost of the season here.Winds have calmed since yesterday and a nice Fall chill in the air.

Could have an interesting system this week mid tome frame that is cold core that transforms to warm core just off the coast and the warmer waters may tug this west on e that tranformation occurs.
PS - possible record breaking cold to grip the west and midwest tjis week this halting growing season. Also another historic snowstorm out there, possibly! Not boring well for our crop harvest. Going to have ripple affects on our food chain and supply.

yeah mugs looks like a tropical or subtropical system comes up coast then gets blocked pusged west and sits. mass gets 6 to 8 inches rain. also pretty gusty winds especially east. will have to see if this pushes further west or not.

and theres the yellow area.

The 12z Euro made a BIG jump to the NW (like by hundreds of miles lol) with the coastal storm mid-week, resulting in potential heavier effects along our coast.

Oh boy king euro says battin down the hatches for LI, NE and Coastal NJ and Conn
Mobile can't post maps
On my way from my final chemo treatment

Yep, depending on how this system tracks Wednesday, could be a windy wet Wednesday along the coast.
Also, the GFS showing another possible coastal low around the middle of Next week (10/17 time frame) with possibly snow mixing at the higher elevations in PA and the Catskills. Still more than a week off so take it with a grain of salt . . . point is, when these things even start showing up on the models you know: Winter is coming.

500 MBA map from euro

Big sigma 3 level block overhead.
It can't get out and gets shoved west

Recurring typhoon Gonna cause a PNA spike and heat flux rush into the arctic and a trough over the NE and may pump the AO and NAO block