October Discussion & Observations

Surprised that a truly tropical storm actually developed out of this lp. We have 65 mph Melissa now moving ssw. A very odd movement for up here.

I don’t think I buy the relatively brief death ridge being advertised for the Day 8-12 period, but I need to better analyze things first before I can officially endorse that stance lol doesn’t seem to be supported by the larger synoptic and hemispheric evolution, in my opinion, and what I think ends up occurring may be more of a trough split out west where one piece retrogrades southwestward over the Rockies and beyond, while the other slices into the northern part of the ridge to lead the time-mean trough’s propagation into eastern North America (at least for a time). This would lead to neutral/negative temperature departures as far south as the northern Mid-Atlantic. More discussion to come as my schedule permits......

Great sign of this trough swinging in cold shot here

Does thursdays developing low that looks as if it may phase look like anything significant in terms or wind and rain? I think someone mentioned a possible noreaster this week?

Midweek storm is shaping up so far H5 levelwise. Surface reflection is starting to show up.
30 mph wind gusts and up to 50 on LI and Coastal NJ.
Rains looks to be 1-2" area wide.
Strong backside CAA as it bombs out heading g ul into Gulf of Maine.
Euro

This is a picture I took earlier today of the foliage from Thacher State Park just outside of Albany:

Math23x7 wrote:This is a picture I took earlier today of the foliage from Thacher State Park just outside of Albany:

Math23x7:

Beautiful photo Math!!!!!

amugs wrote:Midweek storm is shaping up so far H5 levelwise. Surface reflection is starting to show up.
30 mph wind gusts and up to 50 on LI and Coastal NJ.
Rains looks to be 1-2" area wide.
Strong backside CAA as it bombs out heading g ul into Gulf of Maine.
Euro

come on long Island share some that wind it's been a while since I've seen more than a breeze. That looks like some crazy heavy rain. Is it possible these fully phase?

Wow trhe midweek system is stronger than melissa was 980mb over NYC then a new LP pops just south of nantucket at 974mb and loops back into new england, whats up with all that? Euro now shows wind gusts 40-55mph for entire area 60 plus on long Island! and looks like in 2 rounds during and after the system passes, looks like after may be the longer duration, also shows 3-4 inches rain for most of lower hudson valley and NYC area less to the west and east. Will have see what Sr models say in a day or so.

Peeps,
A big coastal looks to be heading our way Wednesday into Wednesday night as per latest model runs from 12Z.

EYE CANDY for JMAN - posible gusts


Rainfall


977 off ELI


Then big pattern changes as we get to late October, big PNA spike, EPO driven pattern thanks to Hagabis recurving and big trough into the NE - BRRRRRR!!! with a another big coastal. This time snows for the interior of our region - Mountains 9Cats and Greens)



MJO supports it as it goes into phase 2 and 3ish??


Lake effects and streamers to get CP (come out  come out and play from yuor hibernation) and he two toothed SNOWMAN in the mood

I guess I am not going to the Yankee game for wed night .i am excited for our pattern change for the end of the month I am tired of this warm and boring weather

The Yankees game Wednesday night is in jeopardy. Most likely to be postponed due to the impending storm. Its felt really fall-like lately. Glad cause the warmer weather was beginning to make me grouchy, haha.

Mikey - nice picture!!!!

amugs wrote:Peeps,
A big coastal looks to be heading our way Wednesday into Wednesday night as per latest model runs from 12Z.

EYE CANDY for JMAN - posible gusts


Rainfall


977 off ELI


Then big pattern changes as we get to late October, big PNA spike, EPO driven pattern thanks to Hagabis recurving and big trough into the NE - BRRRRRR!!! with a another big coastal. This time snows for the interior of our region - Mountains 9Cats and Greens)



MJO supports it as it goes into phase 2 and 3ish??


Lake effects and streamers to get CP (come out  come out and play from yuor hibernation) and he two toothed SNOWMAN in the mood

lol of course my area has a tiny box of calm winds lol. You can never trust these maps anyways. Frank why do you think only 1 inch wed as euro shows much higher and possible wind headlines.

Snow? For all or just inland? We know October Nov snow seems to always lead to a crappy winter, i remember the snowstorm before halloween in like 2011 i think, did a lot of damage.

The MJO has been stuck in phase 8 and 1 for 30 straight days now hopefully that happens December January and February

This is a drool worthy look. Bring it in 8 weeks and hold for 10 weeks and we dance like maniacs!!

WOW getting stronger as per EURO

Wednesday will be one of those days where an umbrella does you no good. Get out your raincoats and just prepare to get wet.

Holly just put out a message on the storm.
It is going to bomb off of the Jersey coast as it heads to the Cape. Winds and even wrap around showers may last through Thursday.
We have 2 more such storms possibly to round out the month after this one.

i never open my pool in the summer so 2 morrow shore it up with extra waterbags all around the pool for wednesday...i think yankee game gonna be washed out

HOLY NAM!

972mb right through long island not offshore, LI sees hurricane force gusts, rest area HWW criteria and the area sees 3-6 inches rain! And the winds persist through later thursday!!

It looks like all models even gfs have a faster phase and more consolidated bringing it over the coast instead of well offshore. This could be a pretty bad storm if plays out. And even in wake winds look to howl. I read that Cape Cod has potential for 80mph plus gusts for a brief time. But that was b4 further west track of the main LP. And nws upped rain again 2 to 3 inches higher end chance 4 to 5.

I'm not buying winds that high always iverdone

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm not buying winds that high always iverdone

in discussions I've read they say very possible with such a bombing out system. We will see. And the rain? 4 to 6 in my area? I actually find that harder to believe

Boom

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1184086588382425091?s=20

amugs wrote:Boom

posted it earlier mugs plus the winds ticked up too. Yeah could be bad. Interesting eastern areas get almost no rain but could get insane winds