Re: October Discussion & Observations

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:10 am

Im not buying the higher gust not sure the winds mix down

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:02 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Im not buying the higher gust not sure the winds mix down

I think they will in the actual line of the storm and ahead of it, but not to the magnitude of euro, though i guess its possible.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:08 am

SPC expanded the slight area to the north and east and tornado potential further east to NYC NJ line, I expect later this will go further east maybe as far as slightly into CT.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:14 am

jmanley32 wrote:SPC expanded the slight area to the north and east and tornado potential further east to NYC NJ line, I expect later this will go further east maybe as far as slightly into CT.

90% of the time the SPC puts out these severe warnings, they don't pan out, especially in NENJ. The marine influence and geography to our west (hills and mountains) tend to knock down the storms or stabilize the atmosphere. Not to say there may be some gusty winds as the line moves through, but really not concerned about these alerts.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:53 am

Dunnzoo wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:SPC expanded the slight area to the north and east and tornado potential further east to NYC NJ line, I expect later this will go further east maybe as far as slightly into CT.

90% of the time the SPC puts out these severe warnings, they don't pan out, especially in NENJ. The marine influence and geography to our west (hills and mountains) tend to knock down the storms or stabilize the atmosphere. Not to say there may be some gusty winds as the line moves through, but really not concerned about these alerts.

Well we will see, it has certainly happened where they die out but I have also seen storms that stay significant. Just been so boring weatherwise I guess I am grabbing for anything to look at lol

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:58 am

Line of t-storms are set to hit us in the overnight hours:

October Discussion & Observations - Page 8 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_16

After the front passes we'll see a period of gusty winds and below normal temps. Temps will moderate again next week but not as mild as this past week. Then I think we could be looking at a period of sustained colder weather (hence the announcement). Check long range thread

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:30 pm

Can anyone explain to me why the NWS has wind advisory including LI and all of CT and most of new england and HWW for central CT north then a gap and HWW for coastal mass and RI, but yet SPC has no wind threat there, and appears to think the line will die out b4 ny? The advisory is from 9pm-4am so its in succession with the front and the HWW, what am I not seeing that they are?

by **dkodgis** Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:56 pm

Here it has been lighter than light rain except for a few minutes ago when it rained heavily for only a minute. Really no wind to speak of. Up here maybe the kids will get Halloween in

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:13 pm

dkodgis wrote:Here it has been lighter than light rain except for a few minutes ago when it rained heavily for only a minute. Really no wind to speak of. Up here maybe the kids will get Halloween in

the line isn't supposed come through until 10 to 12 eastern nj and eastward. So ya they prolly b ok.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:16 pm

Wow spc just issue tornado watch most of PA. In discussion saying gusts could be 60 to 80 mph there and higher if a tornado spins up. That's one crazy line. I think they must strongly believe it's go break up b4 nj cuz there's no advisories or anything from eastern pa to ct border. Then wa and hww east of there what's it gonna do lump over the area and land back in Fairfield ct 15 miles from me? Doesn't make sense.

by **dkodgis** Thu Oct 31, 2019 3:29 pm

Time for the November thread

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Oct 31, 2019 4:17 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow spc just issue tornado watch most of PA. In discussion saying gusts could be 60 to 80 mph there and higher if a tornado spins up. That's one crazy line. I think they must strongly believe it's go break up b4 nj cuz there's no advisories or anything from eastern pa to ct border. Then wa and hww east of there what's it gonna do lump over the area and land back in Fairfield ct 15 miles from me? Doesn't make sense.

Wind Advisory has been expanded westward, includes all of NYC. High Wind Warning for eastern Suffolk County. I could see HWW criteria even in the city between 12-2am when the front passes thru.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 5:58 pm

Yeah soul I think it will be issued possibly later. Winds have really picked up fast here and the wind advisory isn't even active yet.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 31, 2019 7:59 pm

Severe thunderstorm watch issued till 1am. That line is fierce. Lots of damage reports. Let's see if it holds together.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:27 pm

So happy kids got their trick or treating in....and what the heck is wrong with people if it rains stick a poncho on for goodness sakes...we all survived a wet Halloween or two!! WINDS definitely picked up we currently have sustained at 16 and gusts over 20....but for freaking sakes CAN'T WE HAVE COOLER WEATHER PLEASE???!!!

by **SoulSingMG** Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Severe thunderstorm watch issued till 1am. That line is fierce. Lots of damage reports. Let's see if it holds together.

That QLCS is no joke! Tornado outbreak underway in VA southwest of Richmond...

October Discussion & Observations - Page 8 A9f9a510

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:50 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Severe thunderstorm watch issued till 1am. That line is fierce. Lots of damage reports. Let's see if it holds together.

That QLCS is no joke! Tornado outbreak underway in VA southwest of Richmond...

It looks like it's starting to weaken as it heads east. I can see Philly, VA, DE, MD seeing some strong storms, but it looks like it won't be as severe here in NENJ. We'll see. Most of the time it fizzles out before it gets to me. SPC doesn't get the microclimatology (is that a word? haha) of NENJ. Sometimes too close to the water, sometimes just far enough.

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:59 pm

1.08" of rain today, 10/31/19... we'll see what we get tonight

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:53 am

No thunder or lightening but wow wind we have sustained 27 mph and gusts over 40

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