Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAM ice and snow maps

The ice trend is not good.  The NAM brought significant icing more s/e.  I'd be surprised in NWS doesn't sound the ice storm warning with afternoon package.

I's borderline, remember ice storm warning criteria differs in NYS and New England vs CNJ and Pennsylvania south. It's 1/2 inch of ice in all of NY State, NNJ and all of New England, anywhere south of there it's a 1/4 inch.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:18z NAM ice and snow maps

The ice trend is not good.  The NAM brought significant icing more s/e.  I'd be surprised in NWS doesn't sound the ice storm warning with afternoon package.

I's borderline, remember ice storm warning criteria differs in NYS and New England vs CNJ and Pennsylvania south. It's 1/2 inch of ice in all of NY State, NNJ and all of New England, anywhere south of there it's a 1/4 inch.

I think Sussex, Passaic and Morris County in NJ you really got to pull that trigger now. Sounding suggest heavy freezing rain 30-31 degree surface temperature. This would easily exceed 1/2".

Jim Sullivan Met says
Dew points today have been running closer to the cold guidance (NAM and RGEM) and temps have not warmed past models this PM...wet bulbs are in the upper 20s in N NJ and the lower HV. Classic setup for CAD. Sfc trough developing off the NJ coast will help re-enforce it. As the Meso's have had and albeit EURO since Saturday. Gonna be a battle here.

So Frank you mean all rain or freezing rain by that white line on the temp maps? Is that after the snow or do those areas see all rain? Those ice amounts on nam are crazy. Very close to me for a inch but I don't buy it till I see it. Our bussing already cancelled I'm sure most areas will too especially if ice storm warnings are posted.

It's been 36 here all day albeit I'm in white plains it may be warmer in yonkers. But that would bring temps close to freezing tonight I would think.

34° in Wayne NJ. We have an advisory up.

It's been at 35* all day here, real battle later. I can see me getting an inch or 2 of snow before changeover. How many times have we seen the SR models overdo the precip totals? I'm thinking only from Passaic County west and the HV will have major issues.

Expecting mostly snow up here in Ulster county Might see some sleet mix in not expecting large amounts of ice here but 3-6 inch snowfall is likely. Hope the Nam is wrong for ice. boy that would be a dangerous situation.

One degree warmer than white plains 20 miles south . Not much of a difference. I'm just go watch what happens. 00z runs it'll already be happening prolly so I dunno how much they will mean.

I am quite thankful to be out of this fray. Hoping that everyone stays safe and keeps power! Better yet, hopefully the ice threat just fizzles...or sizzles actually.

sroc4 wrote:

that looks impressive. Might the snow overpetform? We don't need the ice to overpetform by models. Nws as posted earlier doesn't see much of an issue. I'm.surprised cuz all models are showing daily Sig amounts of course some crazily higher than others. How's the comparison real time to the models at this time?

GFS has now CAVED with the colder solutions. Wth this model

Looks like I'm under a Winter Storm Warning here in Sussex. Really not thrilled with the latest guidance which seems to bulls-eye me here with a major ice event. I rely on electricity for my oil heat up here in the sticks so any potential ice accumulations concern me greatly.

I guess i'll crank it up tonight and hope to wake up with power.

GREAT forecasting discussion here by the way. I've learned a lot in the past 48 hours. Thanks to all.

Now someone with more experience and knowledge get on here and tell me I have nothing to worry about and that I'll still have power tomorrow morning...please (lol)

amugs wrote:GFS has now CAVED with the colder solutions. Wth this model

wow the ice is more expansive and further inland. At this point I dunno what to think.

amugs wrote:GFS has now CAVED with the colder solutions. Wth this model

It's likely still too warm. It has ZR well into Albany area. I doubt they see any ZR and they may not see any sleet either.

Yep Hyde don't think that icing gets that far north. I don't think I see much ice here as well!!

The 18z 3KM NAM has no snow for most areas in tristate but a aweful ice storm the entire time except for some regular rain at the very end late tuesday wow....





That ice map has 0.5-0.75 smack over me, I do not think yonkers can handle that, BTW power grid sucks and is ancient. 0.25 ice adds 500 pounds to a powerrline.

jimv45 wrote:Yep Hyde don't think that icing gets that far north. I don't think I see much ice here as well!!

Unlikely you see much ZR. Mostly snow and some sleet. 3-6 is a good call for you. I'm thinking 3-4 of snow for me overnight before changeover to sleet tomorrow morning. I'm hoping I can avoid any ZR too but I'm not so sure.

jmanley32 wrote:The 18z 3KM NAM has no snow for most areas in tristate but a aweful ice storm the entire time except for some regular rain at the very end late tuesday wow....





That ice map has 0.5-0.75 smack over me, I do not think yonkers can handle that, BTW power grid sucks and is ancient.  0.25 ice adds 500 pounds to a powerrline.

That doesn't seem realistic to me based on the 850's temps and the current radar. I would say 78 on North should see at least a few inches.

Hyde hope for sleet not ZR for most that do changeover, don't want that freezing rain but have a feeling some places are going to get that and a lot of it hope not!

12z HRDPS matches the 3km nam pretty well in terms of the ice but it has snow for the area too. I think the higher ice amounts to many dismay might be real, maybe not over 1 inch real but 0.25 to 0.5 on the average. But who knows maybe those numbers 1+ are true, the models have been so all over the place with this whole storm is just crazy.

heehaw453 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:The 18z 3KM NAM has no snow for most areas in tristate but a aweful ice storm the entire time except for some regular rain at the very end late tuesday wow....





That ice map has 0.5-0.75 smack over me, I do not think yonkers can handle that, BTW power grid sucks and is ancient.  0.25 ice adds 500 pounds to a powerrline.

That doesn't seem realistic to me based on the 850's temps and the current radar.  I would say 78 on North should see at least a few inches.

The HRDPS as i posted from 12z shows both the snow and the ice. I agree I think snow first is likely.

The 18z HRDPS is gonna crush southern areas with snow and ice, I cannot confirm precip types as tropical tidbits doesnt have that but wxbell does but they are slow so it might take a while.

jmanley32 wrote:12z HRDPS matches the 3km nam pretty well in terms of the ice but it has snow for the area too.  I think the higher ice amounts to many dismay might be real, maybe not over 1 inch real but 0.25 to 0.5 on the average.  But who knows maybe those numbers 1+ are true, the models have been so all over the place with this whole storm is just crazy.

There's not going to be 1.26 inches of ice from this storm, or any storm. I'm guaranteeing it, and if I'm wrong I'm banning myself from posting on this site for one year.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:12z HRDPS matches the 3km nam pretty well in terms of the ice but it has snow for the area too.  I think the higher ice amounts to many dismay might be real, maybe not over 1 inch real but 0.25 to 0.5 on the average.  But who knows maybe those numbers 1+ are true, the models have been so all over the place with this whole storm is just crazy.

There's not going to be 1.26 inches of ice from this storm, or any storm. I'm guaranteeing it, and if I'm wrong I'm banning myself from posting on this site for one year.

I'm not buying it either. Yesterday it was showing 2 inches in some areas. I think if it rains hard some is lost in runoff also so some places may see .50 inch but I would be surprised if there were reports higher than that.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:12z HRDPS matches the 3km nam pretty well in terms of the ice but it has snow for the area too.  I think the higher ice amounts to many dismay might be real, maybe not over 1 inch real but 0.25 to 0.5 on the average.  But who knows maybe those numbers 1+ are true, the models have been so all over the place with this whole storm is just crazy.

There's not going to be 1.26 inches of ice from this storm, or any storm. I'm guaranteeing it, and if I'm wrong I'm banning myself from posting on this site for one year.

Actually the max is 1.85 out in PA. Yeah I find it hard to believe but heck you never know withe these things, I think the 18z is coming in even worse it shows almost all ice storm for the area, that I do not buy, HRRR may be the way to go as scott said earlier but Rgem has been good before.