Re: Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season-

by **Quietace** Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:21 pm

NHC will initiate advisories on tropical storm Fay at 5pm.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:32 pm

Wow 18z 3km name is a mega hit to NYC rain and wind. It's also in line with GFS now. 4 to 5 inches rain 40mph gusts.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:03 pm

Tropical storm warnings issued from cape may to block island MA.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:09 pm

looking decent, 45mph storm, most of us will be on eastern side which is where the windfield is located.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

Hurricane Season 2020-Active Season- - Page 4 20582710

Not sure why TS warnings on nws only show NJ, though NHC shows to MA including NYC etc.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:47 pm

I dont get it why is the tropical storm warning only till 1:45am tomorrow morning? Is that the way they do it and then an update?

by **amugs** Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:55 pm

GFS slow it down allowing for some strengthening it seems. A coup for the GFS.
It may bump east a bit as storms usually do, time will tell.

by **amugs** Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:55 pm

UPDATE: #TropicalStorm #Fay has formed off the coast of #NorthCarolina this afternoon, seen here by @NOAA's #GOES16

️. @NHC_Atlantic expects it to strengthen slightly as it moves along the coast, and a #TropicalStormWarning is in effect from #NJ to #RI. #NJwx #NYwx #CTwx #RIwx https://t.co/XUp2N88rfT

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:57 pm

amugs wrote:UPDATE: #TropicalStorm #Fay has formed off the coast of #NorthCarolina this afternoon, seen here by @NOAA's #GOES16️. @NHC_Atlantic expects it to strengthen slightly as it moves along the coast, and a #TropicalStormWarning is in effect from #NJ to #RI. #NJwx #NYwx #CTwx #RIwx https://t.co/XUp2N88rfT

Already posted it 45 min ago mugs lol, yeah shes looking pretty good only 7mph, might get a surprise. Right now I am look at 1-3 inches rain plus, 50mph gusts and some risk for tornadoes.

by **skinsfan1177** Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:03 pm

Can someone nail down timing winds at their peak and rain

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:05 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can someone nail down timing winds at their peak and rain

looks like around 2pm tomorrow things start to deteriorate.

by **frank 638** Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:15 pm

Does anyone know how bad will it be for my area in Nyc because I’m hearing different stories for cc the morning then now they’re seeing at night I don’t

by **frank 638** Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:16 pm

I’m sorry what I meant was how bad will it be for Nyc because I’m hearing different Stories and I don’t know if I should do a double shift tomorrow cause I’m driving into Manhattan on 34th St.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:32 pm

Latest statement feels Fay will make landfall near NYC area, if she stays over water that long she may get a bit stronger. I dunno why i have a hurricane statement, shes not progged to become a hurricane.

by **amugs** Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:59 pm

This would be very interesting

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:05 pm

amugs wrote:This would be very interesting

cant see it, maybe its my browser, has anyone else had this issue with mugs images?

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:09 pm

so i looked at the model and what are you pointing out mugs? The heavy rain or the fact that Fays center stays slightly offshore of NJ? Also note at the end of the run a big outbreak of thunderstorms to our west in PA.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:15 pm

cool. did not know the sattelite showed the lights.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

by **hyde345** Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:25 pm

frank 638 wrote:I’m sorry what I meant was how bad will it be for Nyc because I’m hearing different Stories and I don’t know if I should do a double shift tomorrow cause I’m driving into Manhattan on 34th St.

It looks like worst in NYC is going to be from mid afternoon to 9 or so. 2-3 inches of rain in a short time will cause flooding in flood prone areas especially with the rain the city has received in the last week.

by **aiannone** Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:32 pm

NHC leaning on the euro for this one track wise. NAM furthest west, euro over LI and gfs in the middle. Land all near NYC, jersey shore looks likely.

by **weatherwatchermom** Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:02 pm

We will be on the boat for our first tropical storm. We battened down the hatches in Ossening..

by **dkodgis** Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:20 pm

Everyone, stay safe

by **Dunnzoo** Thu Jul 09, 2020 11:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:This would be very interesting
cant see it, maybe its my browser, has anyone else had this issue with mugs images?

I haven't been able to see them either.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:47 am

Aircraft recon is finding 50 kt winds, a bit stronger than progged.

by **jmanley32** Fri Jul 10, 2020 1:54 am

wow look at that radar thats some solid rediculous rain.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-jersey/weather-radar

by **sroc4** Fri Jul 10, 2020 6:51 am

by **jmanley32** Fri Jul 10, 2020 7:23 am

Recent sattelite looks like she's starting to try to wrap all way around a bit. 50mph storm now, doesn't look to go inland until literally landfall on NYC per latest cone. Winfield grew on eastern side too.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jul 10, 2020 8:05 am

Madonne the storm looks quite intense already. Someone is going to get close or above three inches of rain in NNJ. Be safe out there. Prepare for some power outages

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