October 2020 Obs and Discussion

This is how we ring in October as per the EURO MONDAY COASTAL??


Double Barrel Lows


Temps at night Friday


Saturday - CHILLY


Sunday - Mr. Frosty say hello again to N & W peeps


Long ways out but widespread frost and freeze next weekend??

52* here this morning beautiful Fall morning for Octubre 1

amugs wrote:52* here this morning beautiful Fall morning for Octubre 1

haha temp dropped after I left the house at an ungodly hour 4:30 AM, it was 54*

3rd & 4thvweek of Oct after we have a cold start. possibly but not etched in stone as we know these can change as we transition in mid fall

48* here this morning fall feel for sure!

Morning low of 52 what a beautiful fall morning and the leaves are starting to change by me I love this time of year

Until the long range forum be again reopened, here will have to do. As Mugs has posted here and there about low temps coming, this Thurs night’s temps look about 32 (up here). It’s coming.

And the warm up this week has been muted to Notmal with one 75* day for the urban region.

Looking at the ten-day outlook, while it is full of very pleasant Fall weather, it occurred to me upon closer reflection that the temps are actually running a bit above normal for this time of year in the outlook. Normal highs in my area this time of year are in mid-to-upper 60s with lows in the mid-40s. Most of the outlook for my area is showing highs around 70 and lows in the 50s. So after some below normal temps a week ago things have moderated a bit. Still waiting for that first light frost to know Fall is really here.

Wind advisory tomorrow, I have not been pay attention to the weather past few days , there is a HWW further east. Not good with fully leaved trees still.  Does not include NJ but NYC east could be looking at some tree and power issues. Looks like the system generating these winds will bring them from the NW which often has actually panned out as NWS projected on a few occasions, we will see.

Those in upper hudson valley batton down the hatches, severe t-storm traveling 70mph with 80mph wind gusys!!! Yikes, major bowing storm.

Wetness from Delta Columbus Day can we say his name (kidding)??

Some gusts came through here about 6 pm. 35 mph ish. Not long. Happened in about 15 Minutes. Deck furniture sliding across deck and such. Then it was over. Rain came and went too

dkodgis wrote:Some gusts came through here about 6 pm. 35 mph ish. Not long. Happened in about 15 Minutes. Deck furniture sliding across deck and such. Then it was over. Rain came and went too

He too rain for a few min..probably 5:30 wind 25 then done

Winds hit near 40+ mph here for a good portion of the afternoon and then a few strong gusts that blew a lot of stuff over came through and it shut off just after dark. Central NY has 225,000 outages due to the very severe bow storms gusting as high as 80mph.

amugs wrote:Wetness from Delta Columbus Day  can we say his name (kidding)??

blah, yes you can sorry but history is history. I am not going to get all political but soon they go find a reason santa and the easter bunny are racist and erase them from culture....granted not real (shh) but still

54* and Sunny, but the temp will not rise much today, only into the mid 60s. Looks like a lot of people could dip into the upper 30s tonight before a rebound in temps this weekend. Temps should stay normal to slightly above normal next week, then as mugs points out above, we may have a significant cool-down starting next weekend (10/17).

Means a trough and cooler wetter weather over the east coast according to the 2nd half map from the JMA model.

And... another hcane or two??

Has anyone noticed the mjo? It's been stuck in Phase 4 and 5 for the past two weeks and looks to continue their for the foreseeable future. This is an interesting write up form a very good poster on another forum interesting stuff

"There seems to be a relationship between the October MJO activity and La Niña snowfall in the NYC Metro forum. Posters from other regions are welcome to share any of their snowfall data. I started this post since we are heading into another La Niña snowfall season. I have included 19-20 and 18-19 as La Ninas since the lingering influence from 16-17 and 17-18 was so strong. We observed the strong La Niña background state in 18-19 block the coupling of the attempted El Niño. The winter was defined by the flat La Niña Ridge north of Hawaii and over the SE US. These La Niña features were only enhanced for the 19-20 winter. The relationship seems to have emerged around 2000. So we only have about 20 years of data. As always, there are no guarantees that this will continue into the coming La Niña season. The NYC Metro snowfall has run above normal following more amplified MJO October phases 4 and 5. The below average snowfall seasons came after more focused October La Niña October activity in phases 1 and 2. The 00-01 season when this began to emerge actually had a peak in phases 2 and 5.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt



October MJO phase peak amplitude ..seasonal snowfall for NYC and ISP..BNL was substituted for missing ISP data in 00-01

2019....10-20...2....1.91.....4.8”.....6.8”

2018....10-11...2....2.00....20.5.....12.8

2017....10-18...5....3.42....40.9.....65.9

2016....10-2.....5....1.86....30.2.....39.3

2011....10-18...1.....3.60....7.4......4.7

2010....10-11...5.....2.87....61.9....55.3

2008....10-25...4.....2.42....27.6....36.2

2007.....10-19...1....2.03....11.9....10.7

2005.....10-30....4....1.68...40.0.....36.0

2000.....10-2....2...1.91....10-12....5...1.82...35.0....51.2

From JB -Next area of concern for a trop cyclone

Delta's remnants with teh cold front interaction from late Sunday through Tuesday wetness

Definitely looking at some wet weather from late Sunday through Tuesday. Not a good Columbus Day for outdoor activities.

35 an hour ago. A beautiful night which will soon be morning. Persistent wind gusts of close to 40 and occasionally higher to 52 mph-ish mph Wed. Deck furniture moved around like chess pieces. I was surprised to see so much wind. Some power outages up here for a few hours. It stayed on for me.

GFS SAYS GET OUT THE UMBRELLA ON COLUMBUS DAY!


Euro says much more

12Z Euro scales it back bit but 2" plus is a good call for now