NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Page 1 of 4 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:05 pm

This is how we ring in October as per the EURO MONDAY COASTAL??
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1601931600-oZIMX2u0SVU

Double Barrel Lows
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1601942400-Gpt6bTGH8zU

Temps at night Friday
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1601604000-aiBuf9vwj20

Saturday - CHILLY
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1601722800-dkTiq5G5rb8

Sunday - Mr. Frosty say hello again to N & W peeps
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1601809200-JpycTs3Xmc4

Long ways out but widespread frost and freeze next weekend??

October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1602331200-mhg5AqskwzQ

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:37 am

52* here this morning beautiful Fall morning for Octubre 1

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:00 pm

@amugs wrote:52* here this morning beautiful Fall morning for Octubre 1

haha temp dropped after I left the house at an ungodly hour 4:30 AM, it was 54*

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4212
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 58
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:12 pm

October 2020 Obs and Discussion 20201010

3rd & 4thvweek of Oct after we have a cold start. possibly but not etched in stone as we know these can change as we transition in mid fall
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 20201010
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 20201011

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:01 am

48* here this morning fall feel for sure!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by frank 638 on Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:11 am

Morning low of 52 what a beautiful fall morning and the leaves are starting to change by me I love this time of year

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2125
Reputation : 36
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 37
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by dkodgis on Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:48 pm

Until the long range forum be again reopened, here will have to do. As Mugs has posted here and there about low temps coming, this Thurs night’s temps look about 32 (up here). It’s coming.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1306
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:33 pm

And the warm up this week has been muted to Notmal with one 75* day for the urban region.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:38 pm

Looking at the ten-day outlook, while it is full of very pleasant Fall weather, it occurred to me upon closer reflection that the temps are actually running a bit above normal for this time of year in the outlook. Normal highs in my area this time of year are in mid-to-upper 60s with lows in the mid-40s. Most of the outlook for my area is showing highs around 70 and lows in the 50s. So after some below normal temps a week ago things have moderated a bit. Still waiting for that first light frost to know Fall is really here.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3056
Reputation : 163
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:32 pm

Wind advisory tomorrow, I have not been pay attention to the weather past few days , there is a HWW further east. Not good with fully leaved trees still.  Does not include NJ but NYC east could be looking at some tree and power issues. Looks like the system generating these winds will bring them from the NW which often has actually panned out as NWS projected on a few occasions, we will see.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:17 pm

Those in upper hudson valley batton down the hatches, severe t-storm traveling 70mph with 80mph wind gusys!!! Yikes, major bowing storm.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:57 pm

Wetness from Delta Columbus Day can we say his name (kidding)??

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Gfs_apcpn_neus_24


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by dkodgis on Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:31 pm

Some gusts came through here about 6 pm. 35 mph ish. Not long. Happened in about 15 Minutes. Deck furniture sliding across deck and such. Then it was over. Rain came and went too
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1306
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:52 pm

@dkodgis wrote:Some gusts came through here about 6 pm. 35 mph ish. Not long. Happened in about 15 Minutes. Deck furniture sliding across deck and such. Then it was over. Rain came and went too
He too rain for a few min..probably 5:30 wind 25 then done
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2735
Reputation : 73
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 56
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:16 am

Winds hit near 40+ mph here for a good portion of the afternoon and then a few strong gusts that blew a lot of stuff over came through and it shut off just after dark. Central NY has 225,000 outages due to the very severe bow storms gusting as high as 80mph.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:17 am

@amugs wrote:Wetness from Delta Columbus Day  can we say his name (kidding)??

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Gfs_apcpn_neus_24

blah, yes you can sorry but history is history. I am not going to get all political but soon they go find a reason santa and the easter bunny are racist and erase them from culture....granted not real (shh) but still Rolling Eyes
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16839
Reputation : 100
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 39
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:09 am

54* and Sunny, but the temp will not rise much today, only into the mid 60s. Looks like a lot of people could dip into the upper 30s tonight before a rebound in temps this weekend. Temps should stay normal to slightly above normal next week, then as mugs points out above, we may have a significant cool-down starting next weekend (10/17).
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3056
Reputation : 163
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:21 am

Means a trough and cooler wetter weather over the east coast according to the 2nd half map from the JMA model.

And... another hcane or two??

October 2020 Obs and Discussion 3vv(19)

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by algae888 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:28 am

Has anyone noticed the mjo? It's been stuck in Phase 4 and 5 for the past two weeks and looks to continue their for the foreseeable future. This is an interesting write up form a very good poster on another forum interesting stuff

"There seems to be a relationship between the October MJO activity and La Niña snowfall in the NYC Metro forum. Posters from other regions are welcome to share any of their snowfall data. I started this post since we are heading into another La Niña snowfall season. I have included 19-20 and 18-19 as La Ninas since the lingering influence from 16-17 and 17-18 was so strong. We observed the strong La Niña background state in 18-19 block the coupling of the attempted El Niño. The winter was defined by the flat La Niña Ridge north of Hawaii and over the SE US. These La Niña features were only enhanced for the 19-20 winter. The relationship seems to have emerged around 2000. So we only have about 20 years of data. As always, there are no guarantees that this will continue into the coming La Niña season. The NYC Metro snowfall has run above normal following more amplified MJO October phases 4 and 5. The below average snowfall seasons came after more focused October La Niña October activity in phases 1 and 2. The 00-01 season when this began to emerge actually had a peak in phases 2 and 5.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt



October MJO phase peak amplitude ..seasonal snowfall for NYC and ISP..BNL was substituted for missing ISP data in 00-01

2019....10-20...2....1.91.....4.8”.....6.8”

2018....10-11...2....2.00....20.5.....12.8

2017....10-18...5....3.42....40.9.....65.9

2016....10-2.....5....1.86....30.2.....39.3

2011....10-18...1.....3.60....7.4......4.7

2010....10-11...5.....2.87....61.9....55.3

2008....10-25...4.....2.42....27.6....36.2

2007.....10-19...1....2.03....11.9....10.7

2005.....10-30....4....1.68...40.0.....36.0

2000.....10-2....2...1.91....10-12....5...1.82...35.0....51.2
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 5050
Reputation : 44
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 58
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:47 am

From JB -Next area of concern for a trop cyclone

October 2020 Obs and Discussion _

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:39 pm

Delta's remnants with teh cold front interaction from late Sunday through Tuesday wetness

October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1602698400-iF56l6cmdaQ

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by billg315 on Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:35 pm

Definitely looking at some wet weather from late Sunday through Tuesday. Not a good Columbus Day for outdoor activities.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 3056
Reputation : 163
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by dkodgis on Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:41 am

35 an hour ago. A beautiful night which will soon be morning. Persistent wind gusts of close to 40 and occasionally higher to 52 mph-ish mph Wed. Deck furniture moved around like chess pieces. I was surprised to see so much wind. Some power outages up here for a few hours. It stayed on for me.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1306
Reputation : 97
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:12 am

GFS SAYS GET OUT THE UMBRELLA ON COLUMBUS DAY!
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1602583200-4WGfh5aqtyw

Euro says much more
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1602604800-iZ0S3ir4F0I

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October 2020 Obs and Discussion Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 10, 2020 4:09 pm

12Z Euro scales it back bit but 2" plus is a good call for now
October 2020 Obs and Discussion 1602622800-rJhHVvXlH7Q

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 11021
Reputation : 202
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 4 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum