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October 2020 Obs and Discussion

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:36 am

31.8° and light snow continues.

Officially 1.0 inch on the board. Nothing accumulated on the driveway or roads.
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Post by docstox12 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:41 am

LOL, CP, already 5% of last years entire snowfall.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:46 am

CT and MA are get hammered, very heavy banding, some places have several inches with hours to go, may get that 3-6. Roads covered in LExington MA. My aunt uncle live there.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:48 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:47 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:31.8° and light snow continues.

Officially 1.0 inch on the board. Nothing accumulated on the driveway or roads.
yayyy for you! I think i saw some white rain not sure. Itw not snowing along coast until you hit like new haven county in CT.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:50 am

@algae888 wrote:Sleet mixing in with the rain in Mount Vernon 37° reports of rain and snow in Yonkers
I can confirm that, but it was brief.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:04 pm

As of 12 pm today, 2.8" total rainfall for this event, 0 flakes at 82' elevation. Minimum temp throughout 36*, currently 38*. No snow for me as it isjust about done.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Radz on Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:38 pm

Only white rain here but was definitely nice to see the flakes flying for a few hrs!
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:49 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:As of 12 pm today, 2.8" total rainfall for this event, 0 flakes at 82' elevation. Minimum temp throughout 36*, currently 38*. No snow for me as it isjust about done.

At 7:15 AM leaving for work I had some flakes and sleet pellets splattering my window on my drive to work/school in Allendale, then when I got to Allendale - mere 7 miles by a crows flight - it was 560/40 snow mix with rain. cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers

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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:54 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:As of 12 pm today, 2.8" total rainfall for this event, 0 flakes at 82' elevation. Minimum temp throughout 36*, currently 38*. No snow for me as it isjust about done.

At 7:15 AM leaving for work I had some flakes and sleet pellets splattering my window on my drive to work/school in Allendale, then when I got to Allendale - mere 7 miles by a crows flight - it was 560/40 snow mix with rain. cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers

Well, the elevation there is about 292', so of course you got some! geek

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:06 pm

33.0 and flurrying but accumulating snow is done.

1.2 inches for the storm total.

It snowed with varying intensities from 7 to 1 pm with temperatures between 31.8° to 32.9° through most of the event. Warm ground temperatures and all of the rain on the ground from the night definitley held down accumulations. I would guess it would have easily been 3-4 inches if the surfaces were at or below freezing.
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Post by Taffy on Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:59 pm

4" here in Hopkinton MA. It's still snowing but beginning to slow down a bit. 30 degrees, real feel is 21 wind at 11 mph.

I moved last March. I'd like to say I go where's there's snow.

Photos are from my deck and patio.
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 Img_0510
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 Img_0511
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:28 pm

@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier.  All good trends

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 12z_tu10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 12_z_y10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 500mb_17
 


Where’s all your forcing for ascent, though, Scott? It’s already over eastern New England. Too little, too late. This was one of the points I mentioned the other day.

Ray this pretty much went exactly as I expected. I guess the white rain didnt quite make it as far south as Id expected(hoped). I believe mood flakes was the phrase. I did think I was going to see a few wet flakes on the north shore of LI, but instead the R/S line flirted with the middle grounds of the LI Sound and the CT coast. We saw a little sleet by ,me but that its. I am glad to see a few of our HV guys and gals as well as our Ma poster(Taffy I believe you're the winner!!) got to see some cover, even if on non paved surface. Bottom line it was a fast mover due to the progressive flow as you alluded to. Just a little delay to that southern energy and the cold air conveyor belt might have been a bit stronger as it phased with the northern energy. I mean it is only October What a Face

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:44 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier.  All good trends

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 12z_tu10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 12_z_y10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 500mb_17
 


Where’s all your forcing for ascent, though, Scott? It’s already over eastern New England. Too little, too late. This was one of the points I mentioned the other day.

Ray this pretty much went exactly as I expected. I guess the white rain didnt quite make it as far south as Id expected(hoped). I believe mood flakes was the phrase. I did think I was going to see a few wet flakes on the north shore of LI, but instead the R/S line flirted with the middle grounds of the LI Sound and the CT coast. We saw a little sleet by ,me but that its. I am glad to see a few of our HV guys and gals as well as our Ma poster(Taffy I believe you're the winner!!) got to see some cover, even if on non paved surface. Bottom line it was a fast mover due to the progressive flow as you alluded to. Just a little delay to that southern energy and the cold air conveyor belt might have been a bit stronger as it phased with the northern energy. I mean it is only October What a Face

Oh, ok, I guess I misunderstood and tried inferring too much haha but I’d rather miss out on a big one now and have it show up later, as I’m just as superstitious as CP when it comes to October snows haha I haven’t looked at much regarding this winter, but I have peeked at enough things to be able to offer some high-level “out loud” thinking, which I will type out when time permits.

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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:01 pm

First snow of the season this morning here in Albany.

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 Ac280710

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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:23 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:33.0 and flurrying but accumulating snow is done.

1.2 inches for the storm total.

It snowed with varying intensities from 7 to 1 pm with temperatures between 31.8° to 32.9° through most of the event. Warm ground temperatures and all of the rain on the ground from the night definitley held down accumulations. I would guess it would have easily been 3-4 inches if the surfaces were at or below freezing.

Good for u CP.
Models were good overall with this, snow maps at this time and in Mar h show how much snow is falling but isn't the mark of what will accumulate, again tjis, Nov and later March.

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:30 pm

Nice pic Math!

RB nice call on this one.  SNE got into the good rates because the storm deepened in time for them.  Some even in NJ saw several inches at > 1500' ASL.  This really didn't miss by much for giving a lot of folks several inches of snow.  Pretty remarkable to see accumulating snow in October in our neck of the woods.

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 Snowto10

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Post by dkodgis on Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:07 am

A surprising 21 degrees this morning. I see a bit of a warmup during the day coming and the eventual slide to low 30s at night. Snow stuck here yesterday to the tune of a half inch but who knows as it was trying to melt as fast as it was falling. My winter task starts-trying to overwinter my Hibiscus.
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Post by frank 638 on Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:24 am

First Time this season had frost on cars and rooftops and made it to freezing point of 32 deg

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:29 am

Got down to 27* here, first frost as well. But that moon last night! Wow!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:22 am

https://youtu.be/qoi3TH59ZEs

Because I think it was a blue moon
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:58 pm

52* and rain - another gloomy day 6 pout of the last 7 peeps!!

Radar

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 Inxr1Knyca_h

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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:59 pm

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 20201110

This is pretty good showing how cold it was and where it placed on the all time record.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:13 pm

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 7 Last1m10


Monthly temperatures departure for NJ.
It was the overnight lows that once again have caused the AN temps. That and most of the temp sensors are at airports and in cities. Few are in rural regions, most of those have been either moved or shut down over the past 20-25 years. Interesting overall.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:26 am

34 this morning with some wind...about 25 mph gusts with a steady 11ish mph so the answer my friend is blowing in the wind. Last week it was California Dreamin'-all the leaves were brown. Today they are down (mostly). Because of so much rain, I kept missing my leaf removal duties only to find this morning the wind has done me nicely. I see a high around these parts of high 30's but as Hector said, big warm up coming by the end of the week.
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