October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Greetings from Hopatcong NJ! Last snow here May 10th..looks like we have a little under an inch on the cold surfaces.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Down to 32.4° with moderate steady snow.

Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.

So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.

Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.

Hey CP.  One can only hope.  In general I believe the reason there seems to be a crappy winter following Oct snow is that the major SSTA, esp in the Pac, that lend itself to early anomalous cold and snowfall tend to also lend themselves to a wearmer patter taking shape as the seasonal shift takes hold.  To explain better recall we almost always make statements regarding the MJO that the same MJO phase during sept Oct Nov can be very different in say Dec Jan Feb.  Just look at the comparisons of phase 1 & 5 for SON vs DJF



To complicate this year even more I stole this image from John Homenuck(earthlight) twitter page.  He took the avg 500mb pattern for all prev La Nina analogues  for Sept and Oct and compared them to 2020's sept and oct avg 500mb pattern.  Clearly there are other factors at play here, but you can see the challenges this year presents in their long range forecasts

CT and MA are get hammered, very heavy banding, some places have several inches with hours to go, may get that 3-6. Roads covered in LExington MA. My aunt uncle live there.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:31.8° and light snow continues.

Officially 1.0 inch on the board. Nothing accumulated on the driveway or roads.

yayyy for you! I think i saw some white rain not sure. Itw not snowing along coast until you hit like new haven county in CT.

algae888 wrote:Sleet mixing in with the rain in Mount Vernon 37° reports of rain and snow in Yonkers

I can confirm that, but it was brief.

As of 12 pm today, 2.8" total rainfall for this event, 0 flakes at 82' elevation. Minimum temp throughout 36*, currently 38*. No snow for me as it isjust about done.

Only white rain here but was definitely nice to see the flakes flying for a few hrs!

Dunnzoo wrote:As of 12 pm today, 2.8" total rainfall for this event, 0 flakes at 82' elevation. Minimum temp throughout 36*, currently 38*. No snow for me as it isjust about done.

At 7:15 AM leaving for work I had some flakes and sleet pellets splattering my window on my drive to work/school in Allendale, then when I got to Allendale - mere 7 miles by a crows flight - it was 560/40 snow mix with rain.

amugs wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:As of 12 pm today, 2.8" total rainfall for this event, 0 flakes at 82' elevation. Minimum temp throughout 36*, currently 38*. No snow for me as it isjust about done.

At 7:15 AM leaving for work I had some flakes and sleet pellets splattering my window on my drive to work/school in Allendale, then when I got to Allendale - mere 7 miles by a crows flight - it was 560/40 snow mix with rain.

Well, the elevation there is about 292', so of course you got some!

4" here in Hopkinton MA. It's still snowing but beginning to slow down a bit. 30 degrees, real feel is 21 wind at 11 mph.

I moved last March. I'd like to say I go where's there's snow.

Photos are from my deck and patio.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier.  All good trends




 

Where’s all your forcing for ascent, though, Scott? It’s already over eastern New England. Too little, too late. This was one of the points I mentioned the other day.

Ray this pretty much went exactly as I expected. I guess the white rain didnt quite make it as far south as Id expected(hoped). I believe mood flakes was the phrase. I did think I was going to see a few wet flakes on the north shore of LI, but instead the R/S line flirted with the middle grounds of the LI Sound and the CT coast. We saw a little sleet by ,me but that its. I am glad to see a few of our HV guys and gals as well as our Ma poster(Taffy I believe you're the winner!!) got to see some cover, even if on non paved surface. Bottom line it was a fast mover due to the progressive flow as you alluded to. Just a little delay to that southern energy and the cold air conveyor belt might have been a bit stronger as it phased with the northern energy. I mean it is only October

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier.  All good trends




 

Where’s all your forcing for ascent, though, Scott? It’s already over eastern New England. Too little, too late. This was one of the points I mentioned the other day.

Ray this pretty much went exactly as I expected. I guess the white rain didnt quite make it as far south as Id expected(hoped). I believe mood flakes was the phrase. I did think I was going to see a few wet flakes on the north shore of LI, but instead the R/S line flirted with the middle grounds of the LI Sound and the CT coast. We saw a little sleet by ,me but that its. I am glad to see a few of our HV guys and gals as well as our Ma poster(Taffy I believe you're the winner!!) got to see some cover, even if on non paved surface. Bottom line it was a fast mover due to the progressive flow as you alluded to. Just a little delay to that southern energy and the cold air conveyor belt might have been a bit stronger as it phased with the northern energy. I mean it is only October

Oh, ok, I guess I misunderstood and tried inferring too much haha but I’d rather miss out on a big one now and have it show up later, as I’m just as superstitious as CP when it comes to October snows haha I haven’t looked at much regarding this winter, but I have peeked at enough things to be able to offer some high-level “out loud” thinking, which I will type out when time permits.

First snow of the season this morning here in Albany.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:33.0 and flurrying but accumulating snow is done.

1.2 inches for the storm total.

It snowed with varying intensities from 7 to 1 pm with temperatures between 31.8° to 32.9° through most of the event. Warm ground temperatures and all of the rain on the ground from the night definitley held down accumulations. I would guess it would have easily been 3-4 inches if the surfaces were at or below freezing.

Good for u CP.
Models were good overall with this, snow maps at this time and in Mar h show how much snow is falling but isn't the mark of what will accumulate, again tjis, Nov and later March.

A surprising 21 degrees this morning. I see a bit of a warmup during the day coming and the eventual slide to low 30s at night. Snow stuck here yesterday to the tune of a half inch but who knows as it was trying to melt as fast as it was falling. My winter task starts-trying to overwinter my Hibiscus.

First Time this season had frost on cars and rooftops and made it to freezing point of 32 deg

Got down to 27* here, first frost as well. But that moon last night! Wow!

https://youtu.be/qoi3TH59ZEs

Because I think it was a blue moon

52* and rain - another gloomy day 6 pout of the last 7 peeps!!

Radar

This is pretty good showing how cold it was and where it placed on the all time record.

Monthly temperatures departure for NJ.
It was the overnight lows that once again have caused the AN temps. That and most of the temp sensors are at airports and in cities. Few are in rural regions, most of those have been either moved or shut down over the past 20-25 years. Interesting overall.

34 this morning with some wind...about 25 mph gusts with a steady 11ish mph so the answer my friend is blowing in the wind. Last week it was California Dreamin'-all the leaves were brown. Today they are down (mostly). Because of so much rain, I kept missing my leaf removal duties only to find this morning the wind has done me nicely. I see a high around these parts of high 30's but as Hector said, big warm up coming by the end of the week.