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October 2020 Obs and Discussion

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Post by mwilli on Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:20 pm

I went to home depot for mulch and I overheard one of the workers saying that winter snow melt will be put out 11/1 saying that it might be a bad winter so they wanna get a jump start since there's so much leftover from last year.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:39 pm

@mwilli wrote:I went to home depot for mulch and I overheard one of the workers saying that winter snow melt will be put out 11/1 saying that it might be a bad winter so they wanna get a jump start since there's so much leftover from last year.

Oh my gosh anything has to be better than last winter!! we only got 2.5 inches of snow the whole season!!

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Post by mwilli on Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:56 pm

I know weatherwatchermom 2.5 inches even the words Mothrazilla and others was never spoken.....but someone in here said the words polar vortex will be mention im guessing before winter gets here so stay tuned.

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Post by frank 638 on Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:21 am

Rainy chilly raw . Today is a good day to stay home and relax and watch movies

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:55 pm

Winds 14 mph  gusts over 20   temp 55  and we have almost 2.5 inches of rain so far


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:55 pm

Only .89" here, and now just a misty drizzle at 51*

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:34 am

Omg it is pouring again..we are over 3 inches already!
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 13, 2020 8:34 am

Picked up another .20" overnight! Giving me 1.08" of wetness which is much appreciated and needed.
Mom this would have been a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm - Roidzilla storm 36" plus of white gold) for you if winter !!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:35 am

@amugs wrote:Picked up another .20" overnight! Giving me 1.08" of wetness which is much appreciated and needed.
Mom this would have been a BECS (Biblical East Coast Storm - Roidzilla storm 36" plus of white gold) for you if winter !!!!

I wish I would volunteer to go out and shovel ..usually leave that to our son and. My hubby 😊
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:07 am

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 EkKPEZ3XcAAunQR?format=png&name=4096x4096

This stratosphere warming the latter half of October could mean a colder second half of October with a colder 1st half of November.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 13, 2020 12:47 pm

A coastal low Friday and Friday Night? Looks to be

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16

Another 1' possible
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Gfs_apcpn_neus_17

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:01 pm

Here's a GIF of the weak coastal Friday into Saturday that will form along the front with colder air in behind it

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 305701242_GFSGIFCoastal.thumb.gif.b9cb04b68d121d8a63585b1606bc3176


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:10 pm

Another 3/4" plus

Close Up
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 1602932400-Yb5J5hnpNS4

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:28 pm

@amugs wrote:Another 3/4" plus

Close Up
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 1602932400-Yb5J5hnpNS4
Mugs my rain fall total from the meter recorded over 3 inches of rain..it down poured for hours on end
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:01 pm

Hopefully the rain will be out of NJ by late Friday night is that possible? If not my sat plans are trashed which would suck.
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Post by frank 638 on Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:12 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hopefully the rain will be out of NJ by late Friday night is that possible? If not my sat plans are trashed which would suck.
So far what I’m hearing it’s supposed to rain late Friday afternoon into Friday night till Saturday morning I hope things will change hopefully I am wrong

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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:00 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Hopefully the rain will be out of NJ by late Friday night is that possible? If not my sat plans are trashed which would suck.

Sorry Jman aint happening through Saturday afternoonish from teh looks

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 397943445_GFSFridayStorm.thumb.gif.597b982a7c18b1c6def38782cf0474ed


October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 1602936000-x3lmap4w8mY

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:17 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Hopefully the rain will be out of NJ by late Friday night is that possible? If not my sat plans are trashed which would suck.

Sorry Jman aint happening through Saturday afternoonish from teh looks

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 397943445_GFSFridayStorm.thumb.gif.597b982a7c18b1c6def38782cf0474ed


October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 1602936000-x3lmap4w8mY
The forecast for Sat is sunny, is it wrong? Isnt that through 12z Sat which is 7am? The GFS looks to have it ending round then.  That stinks if your right.  And wow talk about a bullseye for me.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:28 pm

Yeah all local forecasts mention no rain for anywhere in the tristate for Sat, says sunny in 60s (Hazlet is where I am headed). I can play it by ear if its dry then I can go. Unless event is cancelled, which they said rain or shine anyways.
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:30 pm

Chilly air incoming Saturday night

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 1602932400-uBIu6lL5avI

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:37 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Hopefully the rain will be out of NJ by late Friday night is that possible? If not my sat plans are trashed which would suck.

Sorry Jman aint happening through Saturday afternoonish from teh looks

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 397943445_GFSFridayStorm.thumb.gif.597b982a7c18b1c6def38782cf0474ed


October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 1602936000-x3lmap4w8mY
The forecast for Sat is sunny, is it wrong? Isnt that through 12z Sat which is 7am? The GFS looks to have it ending round then.  That stinks if your right.  And wow talk about a bullseye for me.

True I thought you meant Friday night plans Jman - Saturday things clear up early AM, enjoy!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:26 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah all local forecasts mention no rain for anywhere in the tristate for Sat, says sunny in 60s (Hazlet is where I am headed).  I can play it by ear if its dry then I can go. Unless event is cancelled, which they said rain or shine anyways.
Good luck at the garage sales😊 if it was not a pandemic I would be going around town it's fun..not sure how many people are participating this year...
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:56 pm

It was a light steady rain here earlier in the week. Nothing big. About 1.5 inches total
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:15 pm

53* on this raw, rainy beautiful Autumn Day!!
GFS nailed this and has outdueled the EURO the last couple of months.
Its ENS platform - GEFS got a massive upgrade last month so it is now lock in in step with itself. Going to bode well for the winter.

This woudl have been a 8-18" snow storm peeps - just saying!! ALA the King -'96!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:21 pm

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Inxr1Knyca_h

Bigger View - Great stream of moisture along the front
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 2 Northeast_loop

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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