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October 2020 Obs and Discussion

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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:34 am

Oh Nellie, this is not a good indication for winter if it verifies which I don't think it will but Euro says snow. I think for interior is a good call with some flakes into NWNJ, HV.

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Pratep10

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 on Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:35 am

I’ve been casually watching this threat from mobile (in the middle of a move, so my normal forecasting tools are boxed up atm lol), but I don’t think it’s going to bring any meaningful snow to our latitude. Higher elevations may see a light accumulation (dusting to an inch or two), but anything more than that south of the Mass Pike, I think, is unlikely (save for the Catskills/highest parts of Litchfield Hills). Here’s why:

-I think the parallel GFS is up to its usual game of an overly cold bias and should be discarded
-from what I can tell, the cold air injection follows the storm, not vice versa, and even in the heart of Winter that is a problem unless you have just enough cold air remaining for dynamics to create the storm’s own cold airmass. In this case, we will have dynamics, but the air is still too warm
-it’s a progressive pattern, with an edge given to the warmth/northwestward expansion of the Atlantic ridging. With cold air trailing a storm in a progressive pattern, that’s already bad news, as we overwhelmingly see the storm exit before the cold air can be injected. Add that to a pattern that favors an expansion of the Atlantic ridge, and I think we see a northward shift in the overall storm track so that it winds up over the PA/NY border, or thereabouts, in coming days, which puts us solidly in the warm sector through the duration of any meaningful precipitation

Just my two cents.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:24 pm

@amugs wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:39* this morning, only 50* now. Boy, forecasters are going to be busy this week! Hurricanes, blizzards and fires oh my! Meanwhile, be are going to be boring and grey, with a little rain.

Little rain?? Janet are you looking at the storm for at the end of the week? Good 1" soaker

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20.thumb.png.0516d979d22873d343c759625490818a

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Gfs_apcpn24_neus_16


Haha yes, that was before Zeta developed. As of today's GFS it is already starting to back off on precip. I guess we'll see once it approaches landfall where the heaviest precip runs. I have a feeling it will be to our south (again!)

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:32 pm

^^ Negative Nanny ^^^^
Okay how about some wind chills behind the storm - YIKES if it verifies Saturday Night !!


October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 1604145600-wMKFmRHQ5qs

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Oct 26, 2020 1:50 pm

ok mugsy, how about the ICON??? geek

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Model710

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:32 pm

Mood flakes are def not out of the question end of the week. Time to get the game face on.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:41 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Mood flakes are def not out of the question end of the week.  Time to get the game face on.  

Like Ray Ray said pattern isnt exactly the greatest, but there are some interesting players on the field. Another day or two we may need to wake CP. Dont sound the alarm yet but get ready.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:53 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:Mood flakes are def not out of the question end of the week.  Time to get the game face on.  

Like Ray Ray said pattern isnt exactly the greatest, but there are some interesting players on the field.  Another day or two we may need to wake CP.  Dont sound the alarm yet but get ready.  

Doc, at the first sight of a flake up here, CP will be on the site faster than an olive drops in a Martini.
Was thinking we might get a snow flurry in the mix this weekend.Had 30 for the low Friday night with showers, we will see.It's time up here.

Leaves dropping fast, all trees have color.1/4 have leaves all gone.

Chilly, raw damp day, 48 degrees.
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:22 pm

LMAO Doc olives to a Martini, dirty Doc LOL.
How about this:
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 20201013
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 20201014

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:42 pm

Euro holding at 12Z, definitely interior

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 20201015

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:14 pm

Doc, very funny! Thank you. I needed a laugh. I noticed the leaves have been falling fast. Really fast in fact. I'd say almost half are down up here. If we do not have a fall warm up and of course we might/could/will, I would say this fall seems a bit cooler than usual. If we get a couple of good rainstorms and some Shawangunk winds out of the west, all my leaves will be down.
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Oct 26, 2020 6:43 pm

Models seem to be giving me quite a bit of snow here in Albany for Friday. We'll see if holds, but it wouldn't shock me if the snow gets a bit further south, perhaps NYC. If that happens though, it's a bad sign for the 2020-21 winter. October 2011 had a big snowstorm and we all know how the 2011-12 winter turned out. In fact, it looks like it warms right back up as we head into November and that might last for some time.

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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:20 pm

WIND CHILLS- Friday Night - WOWZA!!

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 1604145600-Vk2yQCQQGDA


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 26, 2020 8:37 pm

From NHC on rainfall amounts 2-4"
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 211404WPCQPF_sm

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 9:24 am

6Z GFS - WAKE UP CP MANANA ???
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603778400-1603972800-1604070000-40

6Z EURO for comparison
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype-1603778400-1603994400-1604102400-80

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 11:15 am

Sussex County Airport - Also for Western Passaic County
MAY 10th and OCTOBER 30th AXCCUMULATING SNOW IN NWNJ


Is this the shortest time between snows in the recording keeping data set??? Just asking. Anyone know??

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 ElVyRFCWMAMx_rA?format=png&name=medium

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:31 pm

12Z GFS just upped the ante for NNJ seeing flakes flying but long ways to go overall in this set up.

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603800000-1603962000-1604178000-80

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 3:10 pm

12Z euro just came in harvey

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype-1603800000-1603983600-1604102400-80

CP wakey wakey??
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 1604102400-hENVLi6wDvs

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:50 pm

The players are very intriguing to me. The cane Zeta gets out ahead of the ULL and acts to knock down the SE ridge actually lowering heights in the area ahead of the main system. There are differences in timing and strength of the energy behind Zeta and the timing and strength of the northern energy that phases with the energy behind Zeta.

Im going out on a limb and saying many will see flakes fly, even if it’s a brief white rain. I’ll go so far as to say I’m at 60/40 that my back yard sees a few wet flakes. NNJ the HV perhaps we get some grass covered. That’s as far as I’ll go for now.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Empty Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 5:57 pm

So true Scott.
Here from a Allan Weather

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 20201013
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 20201014
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 20201016

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:42 pm

18z GFS HOLDS
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603821600-1603983600-1604080800-80

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Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:45 pm

WIND CHILLS - YIKES - THAT'S COLD IN DEM HILLS!

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 1604134800-8tpEzPmIauY

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:49 pm

GEFS SHOW THE SAME - ENSEMBLES LOCK IN STEP WITH DETERMINISTIC MODEL - NICE UPGRADE
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 ElYDSILWkAE0LlG?format=jpg&name=medium

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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:50 pm

EURO COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 4 1604145600-GOiARMHErBQ

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Oct 27, 2020 10:20 pm

CP awake and ready to track.
Interesting stuff and good to see all the usual suspects at their desks and working. Mugs great stuff as always. Mike I can always depend on you to point out the negatives and in my memory accumulating October snows in our area have usually been followed by lousy winters. Let’s get the snow first and then will worry about what follows.

Good to see my old pal Doc, Damian and Sroc posting away and RB back throwing cold water on the party but always with sound reasoning.

I was thinking our May 9 to October 30 accumulating snow would certainly be one of the shortest periods between seasons but saw Mugs already touched on that. I’m traveling the next few days but will be back Thursday night for what will hopefully be the first of many white mornings.

No more winters like last winter, which should not even be referred to as winter.
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