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October 2020 Obs and Discussion

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Post by mwilli on Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:05 am

hope I hear the word roidzilla and others this winter

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 3:32 am

The prospect of snow around Halloween has seen to become a theme over the past 10 years, at least this year I do not think many if any at all are going door to door and with those temps I am sitting inside and giving my daughter a bag of candy and she can weak her costume lol. The models appear to show the snow even making its way down to the coast which is kinda crazy but we have seen it happen. I of course would not expect to see any accumulation but we have not lost our leaves yet and thoughts of 2011 come up... It also appears Zeta is poised to be some sort of sub tropical storm as she interacts with this cold air and NHC has wind probabilities up to 50% for parts of NJ and has also jogged north. Interesting talking about tropics ands snow in the same system, crazy.
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Post by aiannone on Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:29 am

Ready for some mood flakes. Might finally have to put the heat on!
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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:21 am

Models overnight backed off and mood flakes to a coating for higher elevations - Ray FTW!!! But still wet flakes flying on Oct 30th and las time was .......May 10th for most here ....173 days in between - that has to be record

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Post by rb924119 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 10:26 am

Welcome back, CP,!! Hopefully you’re well rested for a winter full of tracking, as I wish the same for the rest of us!!

Mugsy, the game ain’t over yet lol

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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:44 am

CP in da house after a short hibernation!!

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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 28, 2020 11:45 am

@rb924119 wrote:Welcome back, CP,!! Hopefully you’re well rested for a winter full of tracking, as I wish the same for the rest of us!!

Mugsy, the game ain’t over yet lol

The NAM showing a stronger second coastal at 12z well see what the GFS and EURO show. I know still time in this set up.

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Post by larryrock72 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 12:43 pm

Alot has been mentioned about snow in North Jersey, New York and Conneticut, my concern down here in the southern region of New Jersey is the heavy rain and strong winds gusting to over 40mph Thursday night into Friday. Alot of leaves still on the trees here.

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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 28, 2020 2:00 pm

Larry maybe some wet flakes as the LP pulls away but I'll take that for October
12Z GFS did an about face - only model holding on is NAM
GFS
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 Gfs-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603886400-1603972800-1604037600-80
NAM
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 Nam-218-all-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603886400-1603972800-1604070000-80

12Z EURO if trended as 6Z its a big Rain maker as our resident Pro Met told us Rb

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Post by phil155 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 4:39 pm

Looks like a solid 2-3 inched of rain for many of us, here in central jersey I highly doubt there will be any flakes

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Post by docstox12 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 5:59 pm

NOW we have the full winter crew of NJ Strong with CP back in the ranks.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:08 pm

I’m done with this winter. Should have known better than to comment on the 3-6 inches the HV was showing yesterday for Friday.

I’m going to try ignoring the weather and hope the long range forecasters are out to lunch. I can’t go through another non winter like last year, I just can’t.

Sorry, should be in banter. I should know better. Still frustrated from the last winter, May snowfall notwithstanding.
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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:15 pm

GEFS say what's up with you little bro??

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604070000-nHipJnMRzgc

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604091600-UdwUqMyaeUY

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by GreyBeard on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:17 pm

Oh boy! IT'S starting already.

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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 28, 2020 8:22 pm

EURO Holds at 18Z - some snow yes for dem hills

Rain amounts
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604098800-A3Li7YQ5NeA

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603908000-1603962000-1604080800-80

Wide Range
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604080800-uWS0mgryyh0


October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604088000-pVgXvBYz120

Not sticking but to colder surfaces in the under 1" gray regions

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by rb924119 on Wed Oct 28, 2020 9:41 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I’m done with this winter. Should have known better than to comment on the 3-6 inches the HV was showing yesterday for Friday.

I’m going to try ignoring the weather and hope the long range forecasters are out to lunch. I can’t go through another non winter like last year, I just can’t.

Sorry, should be in banter. I should know better. Still frustrated from the last winter, May snowfall notwithstanding.

But you just came back!! You can’t be done with something that hasn’t even started yet!!! Or, can you start something that hasn’t even finished yet? Hmmmm lol anywho, you’re not alone in desperately hoping that this year is the polar opposite of last year, that much can be predicted with 100% accuracy haha besides, you openly admitted that you aren’t a fan of snow in October given how recent years with similar events have turned out........it could be a blessing in disguise!! Very Happy

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Oct 29, 2020 3:23 am

Glad to see "some" posts on here..lol...having a senior dog is like having an infant..up a lot at night lately...but will say nice and warm out 56* no wind no rain yet...
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:02 am

Mom sorry about dogs are like babies, little kids, teenagers!

For some white gold action as the secondary forms and swings out to sea the backside draws down cold air and Saturday morning it will be cold:
FREEZE and FROST GALORE
6Z GFS EURO NAM
GFS
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604138400-BlHoW2CipXY
NAM
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604145600-m6ui7e9jDog
EURO
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604142000-0kRJrRYl3DA

Before that the rain to snow transition
6Z EURO

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603951200-1603972800-1604091600-80


SNOW MAP ANYONE
6Z EURO
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604142000-lLyEa9EYaKM

6Z NAM
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604145600-4wMqx9Vxop8



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:13 am

Hello all!

Good luck to those in the NW for snow. I wouldn't expect much more than a coating on the colder surfaces unless you are at least 1500' ASL.

In regards to this upcoming winter I'll be interested to see Isotherm's analysis which should be forthcoming in a week or so.

I truly would be shocked with an anomaly like what we had last winter. Just not likely to be that bad based on averages. However, not having a good meteorological winter since 2014/15 at least IMBY makes me skeptical of seeing one this year. Among the inhospitable factors have been the NAM state, WAR and Pineapple Express which causes poor storm tracks and inability for cold to lock in. We do seem to more backloaded snow (March) as of late, notwithstanding last year which was just incredibly hostile for snow.

I guess will see soon enough...

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:31 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I’m done with this winter. Should have known better than to comment on the 3-6 inches the HV was showing yesterday for Friday.

I’m going to try ignoring the weather and hope the long range forecasters are out to lunch. I can’t go through another non winter like last year, I just can’t.

Sorry, should be in banter. I should know better. Still frustrated from the last winter, May snowfall notwithstanding.

Cp...friend. You awake from your slumber with grandiose expectations so early in the season. You must have been having one hell of a dream before you were disturbed by the prospect of a few wet flakes. lol My hope here is that you have not fallen ill by the same bug that nailed Jimmy/Syo.

All kidding aside good to see you posting again.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:02 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I’m done with this winter. Should have known better than to comment on the 3-6 inches the HV was showing yesterday for Friday.

I’m going to try ignoring the weather and hope the long range forecasters are out to lunch. I can’t go through another non winter like last year, I just can’t.

Sorry, should be in banter. I should know better. Still frustrated from the last winter, May snowfall notwithstanding.

CP...MOST PEOPLE do not want snow..so for them this is great news..THIS IS 2020 so lets hope the opposite happens!!! Keep the faith!!


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:05 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:04 am

@amugs wrote:Mom sorry about dogs are like babies, little kids, teenagers!

For some white gold action as the secondary forms and swings out to sea the backside draws down cold air and Saturday morning it will be cold:
FREEZE and FROST GALORE
6Z GFS EURO NAM
GFS
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604138400-BlHoW2CipXY
NAM
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604145600-m6ui7e9jDog
EURO
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604142000-0kRJrRYl3DA

Before that the rain to snow transition
6Z EURO

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 Ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-instant_ptype_3hr-1603951200-1603972800-1604091600-80


SNOW MAP ANYONE
6Z EURO
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604142000-lLyEa9EYaKM

6Z NAM
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604145600-4wMqx9Vxop8


Thanks Mugs..she is almost 14 ...my little old lady..I better make sure I dress warmer tonight..lol currently 52* and a 1/4 inch of rain so far!
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Post by GreyBeard on Thu Oct 29, 2020 10:39 am

It appears the doors to the Winter Whinery have been opened way ahead of schedule. Please remember masks and social distancing are still required. If you are showing any symptoms, pouting, feeling deprived or anxious, a general disregard for long range forecasts, please quarantine yourselves so as not to infect the general population.As of yet there are no vaccines available.

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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:03 am

NAM money shot - whips up the LP (stronger) and jogs it a bit more North

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604059200-uecL5jtb1LQ

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 5 1604059200-ap2W9ix3BEU

Lets see what GFS and EURO have to say at 12Z

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:58 am

GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy. More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough. I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude. Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good. Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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