October 2020 Obs and Discussion
+20
GreyBeard
phil155
larryrock72
CPcantmeasuresnow
Math23x7
docstox12
sroc4
rb924119
Frank_Wx
Radz
aiannone
mwilli
algae888
weatherwatchermom
jmanley32
billg315
dkodgis
frank 638
Dunnzoo
amugs
24 posters
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
NAM money shot - whips up the LP (stronger) and jogs it a bit more North
Lets see what GFS and EURO have to say at 12Z
Lets see what GFS and EURO have to say at 12Z
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy. More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough. I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude. Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.
South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good. Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying
South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good. Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying
sroc4- Admin
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy. More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough. I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude. Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.
South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good. Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying
Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier. All good trends
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
CP, welcome back into the fold. While you wait for flakes to fly, may I suggest you listen to the Tom Petty channel on Sirius. Music is always right with the world; snow, not so much. Snow has forsaken these parts. May I be proven a liar with my pants on fire.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Maybe I will have a chance of seeing some mood flakes down here in Central NJ after all
phil155- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
aaahhh. this is very slightly pulling me back in. Still recovering from the Winter that Never Was. Tom Petty- one of the best.
I'm predicting and saying no snow (not that my opinion is worth anything, its not) but reverse jinx. 0 inches of snow this winter, a forecast based scientificly on the amount of leaves fallen in my back yard.
I'm predicting and saying no snow (not that my opinion is worth anything, its not) but reverse jinx. 0 inches of snow this winter, a forecast based scientificly on the amount of leaves fallen in my back yard.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
sroc4 wrote:sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy. More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough. I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude. Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.
South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good. Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying
Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier. All good trends
Where’s all your forcing for ascent, though, Scott? It’s already over eastern New England. Too little, too late. This was one of the points I mentioned the other day.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Down to 47.8. Bring some morning mood flakes!
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
46* and rain and 1.56" in the bucket unofficially
@Zoo can you confirm the rainfall? I had to remove some leaves from my gauge sista!!
NAM says this si what will fall but what will stick is a different story
@Zoo can you confirm the rainfall? I had to remove some leaves from my gauge sista!!
NAM says this si what will fall but what will stick is a different story
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
amugs wrote:46* and rain and 1.56" in the bucket unofficially
@Zoo can you confirm the rainfall? I had to remove some leaves from my gauge sista!!
NAM says this si what will fall but what will stick is a different story
Hey mugs, I have 1.78" as of 9:30pm. Not feeling any snow here, maybe a little white rain. Temps and ground too warm. Maybe any leftover wet areas will freeze tomorrow night, but I'll be surprised if we see anything stick.
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Dunnzoo- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Looks like the olive dropped in that martini
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
39* snow line encroaching to my north and west...
Radz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
It is actually snow at the 850 levels in the atmosphere part NWNJ is reporting sleet now. The changeover is beginning as the LP deepens off the Delmarva.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Snowing as far south as Poughkeepsie and Hyde Park sleet being reported in White Plains right now
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
7 am 35 degrees and steady, heavy slop falling. 7-11 slushy type stuff.
Breezy, about 5 mph. Dark, depressing. It is always darkest before the dawn.
Breezy, about 5 mph. Dark, depressing. It is always darkest before the dawn.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Sleet mixing in with the rain in Mount Vernon 37° reports of rain and snow in Yonkers
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
32.9° and Snowing moderately
Beginning to stick to deck and some grassy areas.
I'm only 45 miles north of the city so it may get into areas that didn't expect it.
Beginning to stick to deck and some grassy areas.
I'm only 45 miles north of the city so it may get into areas that didn't expect it.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Got some snow mixing with the rain in Morristown. Just 37 degrees
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Sleet mixing in in Wading River. Pelting the windows
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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sroc4- Admin
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Large flakes now and it is sticking some. Snowfall is steady but the field of it looks thin when I look straight through it. It actually has dropped 2 degrees to 33.
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Down to 32.4° with moderate steady snow.
Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.
So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.
Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.
Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.
So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.
Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
CP, I’ve seen that movie. It seems it has become a classic around here. Snow has picked up a bit. Doc is probably dressed up as Santa right now. I am looking for my elf costume as we speak...
dkodgis- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
The rain is starting to mix with snow in midtown
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
Heavy cold rain...46* not expecting any flakes..
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: October 2020 Obs and Discussion
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Down to 32.4° with moderate steady snow.
Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.
So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.
Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.
Hey CP. One can only hope. In general I believe the reason there seems to be a crappy winter following Oct snow is that the major SSTA, esp in the Pac, that lend itself to early anomalous cold and snowfall tend to also lend themselves to a wearmer patter taking shape as the seasonal shift takes hold. To explain better recall we almost always make statements regarding the MJO that the same MJO phase during sept Oct Nov can be very different in say Dec Jan Feb. Just look at the comparisons of phase 1 & 5 for SON vs DJF
To complicate this year even more I stole this image from John Homenuck(earthlight) twitter page. He took the avg 500mb pattern for all prev La Nina analogues for Sept and Oct and compared them to 2020's sept and oct avg 500mb pattern. Clearly there are other factors at play here, but you can see the challenges this year presents in their long range forecasts
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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