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October 2020 Obs and Discussion

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:13 pm

@sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier. All good trends

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 12z_tu10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 12_z_y10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 500mb_17
 


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Oct 29, 2020 12:15 pm

CP, welcome back into the fold. While you wait for flakes to fly, may I suggest you listen to the Tom Petty channel on Sirius. Music is always right with the world; snow, not so much. Snow has forsaken these parts. May I be proven a liar with my pants on fire.
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Post by phil155 on Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:12 pm

Maybe I will have a chance of seeing some mood flakes down here in Central NJ after all Smile

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Post by Grselig on Thu Oct 29, 2020 4:04 pm

aaahhh. this is very slightly pulling me back in. Still recovering from the Winter that Never Was. Tom Petty- one of the best.

I'm predicting and saying no snow (not that my opinion is worth anything, its not) but reverse jinx. 0 inches of snow this winter, a forecast based scientificly on the amount of leaves fallen in my back yard.
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Post by rb924119 on Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier. All good trends

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 12z_tu10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 12_z_y10
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 500mb_17
 


Where’s all your forcing for ascent, though, Scott? It’s already over eastern New England. Too little, too late. This was one of the points I mentioned the other day.

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Post by aiannone on Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:16 pm

Down to 47.8. Bring some morning mood flakes!
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 29, 2020 7:55 pm

46* and rain and 1.56" in the bucket unofficially
@Zoo can you confirm the rainfall? I had to remove some leaves from my gauge sista!!

NAM says this si what will fall but what will stick is a different story
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 1604091600-OqacRi2gzW4


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Oct 29, 2020 9:39 pm

@amugs wrote:46* and rain and 1.56" in the bucket unofficially
@Zoo can you confirm the rainfall? I had to remove some leaves from my gauge sista!!

NAM says this si what will fall but what will stick is a different story
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 1604091600-OqacRi2gzW4


Hey mugs, I have 1.78" as of 9:30pm. Not feeling any snow here, maybe a little white rain. Temps and ground too warm. Maybe any leftover wet areas will freeze tomorrow night, but I'll be surprised if we see anything stick.

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:56 am

Looks like the olive dropped in that martini
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Post by Radz on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:51 am

39* snow line encroaching to my north and west...
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:06 am

It is actually snow at the 850 levels in the atmosphere part NWNJ is reporting sleet now. The changeover is beginning as the LP deepens off the Delmarva.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by algae888 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:13 am

Snowing as far south as Poughkeepsie and Hyde Park sleet being reported in White Plains right now
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:22 am

7 am 35 degrees and steady, heavy slop falling. 7-11 slushy type stuff.

Breezy, about 5 mph. Dark, depressing. It is always darkest before the dawn.
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Post by algae888 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:45 am

Sleet mixing in with the rain in Mount Vernon 37° reports of rain and snow in Yonkers
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:54 am

32.9° and Snowing moderately

Beginning to stick to deck and some grassy areas.

I'm only 45 miles north of the city so it may get into areas that didn't expect it.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:12 am

Got some snow mixing with the rain in Morristown. Just 37 degrees

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Post by aiannone on Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:13 am

Heavy sleet now
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:19 am

Sleet mixing in in Wading River. Pelting the windows

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:29 am

Large flakes now and it is sticking some. Snowfall is steady but the field of it looks thin when I look straight through it. It actually has dropped 2 degrees to 33.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:36 am

Down to 32.4° with moderate steady snow.

Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.

So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.

Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:42 am

CP, I’ve seen that movie. It seems it has become a classic around here. Snow has picked up a bit. Doc is probably dressed up as Santa right now. I am looking for my elf costume as we speak...
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Post by frank 638 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:00 am

The rain is starting to mix with snow ❄ in midtown

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:03 am

Heavy cold rain...46* not expecting any flakes..
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Post by DAYBLAZER on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:09 am

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Img_0310
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Img_0312
October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Img_0311


Greetings from Hopatcong NJ! Last snow here May 10th..looks like we have a little under an inch on the cold surfaces.
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:20 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Down to 32.4° with moderate steady snow.

Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.

So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.

Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.

Hey CP.  One can only hope.  In general I believe the reason there seems to be a crappy winter following Oct snow is that the major SSTA, esp in the Pac, that lend itself to early anomalous cold and snowfall tend to also lend themselves to a wearmer patter taking shape as the seasonal shift takes hold.  To explain better recall we almost always make statements regarding the MJO that the same MJO phase during sept Oct Nov can be very different in say Dec Jan Feb.  Just look at the comparisons of phase 1 & 5 for SON vs DJF

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Mjo10

To complicate this year even more I stole this image from John Homenuck(earthlight) twitter page.  He took the avg 500mb pattern for all prev La Nina analogues  for Sept and Oct and compared them to 2020's sept and oct avg 500mb pattern.  Clearly there are other factors at play here, but you can see the challenges this year presents in their long range forecasts

October 2020 Obs and Discussion - Page 6 Analog10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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