October 2020 Obs and Discussion

NAM money shot - whips up the LP (stronger) and jogs it a bit more North





Lets see what GFS and EURO have to say at 12Z

GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy. More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough. I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude. Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good. Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier. All good trends




 

CP, welcome back into the fold. While you wait for flakes to fly, may I suggest you listen to the Tom Petty channel on Sirius. Music is always right with the world; snow, not so much. Snow has forsaken these parts. May I be proven a liar with my pants on fire.

Maybe I will have a chance of seeing some mood flakes down here in Central NJ after all

aaahhh. this is very slightly pulling me back in. Still recovering from the Winter that Never Was. Tom Petty- one of the best.

I'm predicting and saying no snow (not that my opinion is worth anything, its not) but reverse jinx. 0 inches of snow this winter, a forecast based scientificly on the amount of leaves fallen in my back yard.

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:GFS also trending stronger with interactions with northern energy.  More interactions the colder the air involved, so long as the interactions occur early enough.  I like what I see for areas N of the city latitude.  Still think flakes could fly for LI esp N of the LIE.  

South of say Staten Island ehh not looking good.  Bronx on north I like to see at least flakes flying

Watch the 552 line slowly sink south of LI with the latest run and the interactions are earlier. All good trends




 

Where’s all your forcing for ascent, though, Scott? It’s already over eastern New England. Too little, too late. This was one of the points I mentioned the other day.

Down to 47.8. Bring some morning mood flakes!

46* and rain and 1.56" in the bucket unofficially
@Zoo can you confirm the rainfall? I had to remove some leaves from my gauge sista!!

NAM says this si what will fall but what will stick is a different story

amugs wrote:46* and rain and 1.56" in the bucket unofficially
@Zoo can you confirm the rainfall? I had to remove some leaves from my gauge sista!!

NAM says this si what will fall but what will stick is a different story

Hey mugs, I have 1.78" as of 9:30pm. Not feeling any snow here, maybe a little white rain. Temps and ground too warm. Maybe any leftover wet areas will freeze tomorrow night, but I'll be surprised if we see anything stick.

Looks like the olive dropped in that martini

39* snow line encroaching to my north and west...

It is actually snow at the 850 levels in the atmosphere part NWNJ is reporting sleet now. The changeover is beginning as the LP deepens off the Delmarva.

Snowing as far south as Poughkeepsie and Hyde Park sleet being reported in White Plains right now

7 am 35 degrees and steady, heavy slop falling. 7-11 slushy type stuff.

Breezy, about 5 mph. Dark, depressing. It is always darkest before the dawn.

Sleet mixing in with the rain in Mount Vernon 37° reports of rain and snow in Yonkers

32.9° and Snowing moderately

Beginning to stick to deck and some grassy areas.

I'm only 45 miles north of the city so it may get into areas that didn't expect it.

Got some snow mixing with the rain in Morristown. Just 37 degrees

Heavy sleet now

Sleet mixing in in Wading River. Pelting the windows

Large flakes now and it is sticking some. Snowfall is steady but the field of it looks thin when I look straight through it. It actually has dropped 2 degrees to 33.

Down to 32.4° with moderate steady snow.

Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.

So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.

Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.

CP, I’ve seen that movie. It seems it has become a classic around here. Snow has picked up a bit. Doc is probably dressed up as Santa right now. I am looking for my elf costume as we speak...

The rain is starting to mix with snow in midtown

Heavy cold rain...46* not expecting any flakes..

Greetings from Hopatcong NJ! Last snow here May 10th..looks like we have a little under an inch on the cold surfaces.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Down to 32.4° with moderate steady snow.

Sticking to trees and grassy areas now and looking winter like, which is always nice.

So most of us will end up only having to go from May 10 to October 29th without seeing snow or in some cases measurable snow. Amazing when you consider what went on during most of last Winter. We shouldn't even refer to it as winter, it was just an extended Fall.

Let's hope for once another accumulating October snow doesn't lead to a crappy Winter. These always leave me feeling uneasy because I've seen this script end in disaster too many times.

Hey CP.  One can only hope.  In general I believe the reason there seems to be a crappy winter following Oct snow is that the major SSTA, esp in the Pac, that lend itself to early anomalous cold and snowfall tend to also lend themselves to a wearmer patter taking shape as the seasonal shift takes hold.  To explain better recall we almost always make statements regarding the MJO that the same MJO phase during sept Oct Nov can be very different in say Dec Jan Feb.  Just look at the comparisons of phase 1 & 5 for SON vs DJF



To complicate this year even more I stole this image from John Homenuck(earthlight) twitter page.  He took the avg 500mb pattern for all prev La Nina analogues  for Sept and Oct and compared them to 2020's sept and oct avg 500mb pattern.  Clearly there are other factors at play here, but you can see the challenges this year presents in their long range forecasts