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12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:48 am

NAM seems to get rid of the confluence entirely which allows the low to run farther to the West. Heights to the East are higher, which I believe is what RB was talking about for a few days now. NAM is close to its range and trend on most has been to NW, which does surprise me. I had been thinking that suppression would be the issue but now it seems that the issue is the trough going negative sooner than expected.

We shall see.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:48 am

The GFS is able to stay further SE with the lows IMO due to smoother trough at the z500.  It goes negative about the same time as other guidance, but it's a weaker ULL.  This is a function too of the west coast ridge (PNA) not being as stout.  So the GFS acts more like a swfe instead of a stronger storm.

However, I still think that high to the north will press down a bit more than shown. Even if the storm is stronger. Let's see!

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Gfs_5010

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:55 am

3km nam has me ready to jump ship. Don't worry i won't. I know waffle and it looks absurd. 6 inches NYC area all northern people and pa 30+!!! Oh wth lol
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 15, 2020 9:58 am

3k NAM LOL
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13142610
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:00 am

@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13142610

Okay good, we’re tossing the NAM suite. She’s off her rocker.
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:03 am

ARW FWIW
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:03 am

If the NAM is showing this 06Z tomorrow, I'll be concerned.

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Post by jimv45 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:10 am

No be concerned now, we are seeing hints with other models as well, hope this is not the start of a trend NW for costal people! Even where I am if that Nam 3K is right it's north of me

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Post by billg315 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:10 am

I'm going to just pretend I didn't see any of these runs and I'll check back in later today. Toodles.
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:18 am

12Z RGEM
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:20 am

@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13142610

Other than all the virus tragedies health wise and economically that 2020 has wrought, this would be the cruelest of all.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:22 am

Ofh this is turning to a mothrazilla at best for many, mikey P is happy he looks to get 20-30 inches on latest SR. This is where I start to twitch a little like sheldon on the big band theory lol
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Post by rb924119 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:24 am

@jimv45 wrote:Where is RB? the Nam plus others may be on to what he said might happen!!!

I’m here, I just woke up lol it’s my Sunday and I was up late last night working on equipment and then catching up on the model runs haha

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:25 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13142610

Other than all the virus tragedies health wise and economically that 2020 has wrought, this would be the cruelest of all.
And knowing 2020 this probably will happen, RB has been saying this, but that seems extreme north trend I mean 2 inches NYC?!! NWS go have huge egg on their face as are most i nweather community if that happens, I cannot lket it get to me though as much as it does I have to keepa even keel cause we never totally know till its upon us. Look at the TS this summer, we never expected it to be so bad, scott no foul to him was always saying it would be east and most would see rain not the wind, which ended up not being the case. Lets pray the 18z and 00z arent the same. But I am concerned cause all the SR are showing this not just one.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:25 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13142610

Other than all the virus tragedies health wise and economically that 2020 has wrought, this would be the cruelest of all.
I am so with you CP this year has been so tragic..I always try to look at positive but ..I can't watch this fall apart..I just can't..hope things change for better will check in later
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Post by billg315 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:27 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL
12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13142610

Other than all the virus tragedies health wise and economically that 2020 has wrought, this would be the cruelest of all.

Only in a year as horrible as 2020, could this potential outcome NOT be the cruelest of all. I might commit seppuku if this happens.
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:29 am

this is the result of model watching for several days lol. relax! i had to chime in for this
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Post by jimv45 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:39 am

Good to hear from you RB!! This is what you been talking about it with the Nam and others!

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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:42 am

GFS coming in with the final coastal jab of the 12z suite
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Post by RJB8525 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:43 am

@jimv45 wrote:Good to hear from you RB!! This is what you been talking about it with the Nam and others!
wrong RB lmao
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:44 am

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 Gfs_ms12
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Post by aiannone Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:46 am

12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13167210
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:48 am

The GFS 850/700 def came north, but they are in a much better placement than the westward positioning we've seen. It's not a straight shunt E, but ENE now. That is much more aligned with other guidance now.

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Post by bloc1357 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:48 am

@aiannone wrote:12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map - Page 4 13167210

The overall outline of the pink looks like an outline of Long Island....maybe that all moves SE a bit....Puts the outline of Long Island over Long Island....LOL

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Post by algae888 Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:51 am

Not great Trends today so far hats off to RB on this one it's just amazes me how a 1038 MB arctic high over Quebec and Albany is going to get over a foot of snow can someone explain that to me
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