12/16 to 12/17 Godzilla - 1st Call Snow Map

NAM seems to get rid of the confluence entirely which allows the low to run farther to the West. Heights to the East are higher, which I believe is what RB was talking about for a few days now. NAM is close to its range and trend on most has been to NW, which does surprise me. I had been thinking that suppression would be the issue but now it seems that the issue is the trough going negative sooner than expected.

We shall see.

The GFS is able to stay further SE with the lows IMO due to smoother trough at the z500.  It goes negative about the same time as other guidance, but it's a weaker ULL.  This is a function too of the west coast ridge (PNA) not being as stout.  So the GFS acts more like a swfe instead of a stronger storm.

However, I still think that high to the north will press down a bit more than shown. Even if the storm is stronger. Let's see!

3km nam has me ready to jump ship. Don't worry i won't. I know waffle and it looks absurd. 6 inches NYC area all northern people and pa 30+!!! Oh wth lol

3k NAM LOL

@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL

Okay good, we’re tossing the NAM suite. She’s off her rocker.

ARW FWIW

If the NAM is showing this 06Z tomorrow, I'll be concerned.

No be concerned now, we are seeing hints with other models as well, hope this is not the start of a trend NW for costal people! Even where I am if that Nam 3K is right it's north of me

I'm going to just pretend I didn't see any of these runs and I'll check back in later today. Toodles.

12Z RGEM

@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL

Other than all the virus tragedies health wise and economically that 2020 has wrought, this would be the cruelest of all.

Ofh this is turning to a mothrazilla at best for many, mikey P is happy he looks to get 20-30 inches on latest SR. This is where I start to twitch a little like sheldon on the big band theory lol

@jimv45 wrote:Where is RB? the Nam plus others may be on to what he said might happen!!!

I’m here, I just woke up lol it’s my Sunday and I was up late last night working on equipment and then catching up on the model runs haha

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL

Other than all the virus tragedies health wise and economically that 2020 has wrought, this would be the cruelest of all.

And knowing 2020 this probably will happen, RB has been saying this, but that seems extreme north trend I mean 2 inches NYC?!! NWS go have huge egg on their face as are most i nweather community if that happens, I cannot lket it get to me though as much as it does I have to keepa even keel cause we never totally know till its upon us. Look at the TS this summer, we never expected it to be so bad, scott no foul to him was always saying it would be east and most would see rain not the wind, which ended up not being the case. Lets pray the 18z and 00z arent the same. But I am concerned cause all the SR are showing this not just one.

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

@aiannone wrote:3k NAM LOL

Other than all the virus tragedies health wise and economically that 2020 has wrought, this would be the cruelest of all.

Only in a year as horrible as 2020, could this potential outcome NOT be the cruelest of all. I might commit seppuku if this happens.

Good to hear from you RB!! This is what you been talking about it with the Nam and others!

GFS coming in with the final coastal jab of the 12z suite

The GFS 850/700 def came north, but they are in a much better placement than the westward positioning we've seen. It's not a straight shunt E, but ENE now. That is much more aligned with other guidance now.

Not great Trends today so far hats off to RB on this one it's just amazes me how a 1038 MB arctic high over Quebec and Albany is going to get over a foot of snow can someone explain that to me