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Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:15 pm

I felt it prudent to make a seperate thread for this as some of us are discussing it and as a admin for another type of page I know how clogging up certain threads can get annoying. So please bring talks about the wind/rain even here. I am going to try to do a writeup on it tomorrow. Discuss if you like, I know it sucks its falling on the holiday.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Dec 22, 2020 10:57 pm

D


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Dec 23, 2020 4:39 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 22, 2020 11:08 pm

I suspect the watches up for eastern CT and LI will be greatly expanded from model runs I am seeing this is not just a coastal wind/flood event. Judging by the Euro, GFS and NAM these winds are quite concerning. I am seeing consistent output on all 3 of 60-80mph gusts for at least a portion of this 6-12 hr storm (Images only show the highest point in the winds on each model, there is long duration ramping up and down on both sides. That will most surely cause a lot of issues and on the worst timing possible. Euro, GFS & NAM are kinda nuts, I would be surprised the winds to be this high over such a widespread area, but even 10-15mph less is very bad. I would say make a maybe 80% of this numbers shown with potential for actual winds shown to actually happen in some locations. Likely highest near coast. Like RB had said its actually possible that there is quite a bit of mixing down of the winds. There is a strengthening of the front as it heads ENE. The rain I am guessing 1-2 inches with higher amounts in most convective areas of rainfall. Try to enjoy the holiday anyways!!

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 12z_eu10
Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 00z_gf10
Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread Ooz_na10


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Post by phil155 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 6:49 am

If these widespread extreme winds verify at ground level there will no doubt be massive numbers of power outages

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Post by Radz on Wed Dec 23, 2020 7:49 am

Hopefully the high winds won’t materialize but filling my gas cans just in case today- my lights will shine brightly regardless lol
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:18 am

I honestly don't think they will materialize verbatim. Othwise it would be likely one if the worst storms in Xmas ever sadly. It's a really stinky time to have that kinda weather. Plus does anyone know if weather.us is even somewhat accurate? I only use it cuz it gives a nice closeup of areas and I don't have weatherbell. Does anyone have the wind and rain maps from wxbell?
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Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:19 am

Jman, you got your high wind watch. As suspected, they’ve been expanded westward as guidance continues to sound the alarm for enough gusts to mix down to the surface to cause damage, likely giving us our windiest Christmas in recorded history. Very 2020.

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 9c5d2110
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:20 am

@phil155 wrote:If these widespread extreme winds verify at ground level there will no doubt be massive numbers of power outages
I know. These are ground level 850mb winds are into the 120s but those epuld not all mic down I think Ray told me safe bet is 50 to 60%.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:23 am

@SoulSingMG wrote:Jman, you got your high wind watch. As suspected, they’ve been expanded westward as guidance continues to sound the alarm for enough gusts to mix down to the surface to cause damage, likely giving us our windiest Christmas in recorded history. Very 2020.

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 9c5d2110
personally I think it's go be expanded well inland all models show this being a areawide problem. That's crazy if it really is the windiest at in hx. Most should be over and calming down by sunrise on Xmas day. Let's hope lack of foliage will keep down trees at a minimum. And yes expect no less from 2020. What else is new.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:28 am

I'd take down blow ups if you have them as those will easily take flight unless tired down really good. Even then they rip. One year we had a inflatables massacre in yonkers someone went around stabbing them all. So sad.
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Post by TheAresian on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:49 am

The gusts break 30 by 17z on the 24th, 40 by 02z on the 25th and the maps show what's next.

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 16088610

First image is the arrival of the 50s gusts.
Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 16088810

Next is the peak gusts. They actually last for several hours.
Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 16089110

Last one is when the winds are finally off the map altogether. I'm not sure how far east on that map people live so I wanted to give them some idea of how late it might be.

Hours of gusts into the 50s and 60s. Santa's sleigh is going to be dodging debris.

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Post by TheAresian on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:52 am

The rain

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 16089410

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:53 am

@TheAresian wrote:The gusts break 30 by 17z on the 24th, 40 by 02z on the 25th and the maps show what's next.

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 16088610

First image is the arrival of the 50s gusts.
Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 16088810

Next is the peak gusts. They actually last for several hours.
Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 16089110

Last one is when the winds are finally off the map altogether. I'm not sure how far east on that map people live so I wanted to give them some idea of how late it might be.

Hours of gusts into the 50s and 60s. Santa's sleigh is going to be dodging debris.
Santa has special elv escorts with a invisible bubble around him. Those maps match up fairly closlely with the ones I posted albeit a bit weaker which I kinda figured would be the case from a free site versus wxbell.

Yes theres about a 3-4 hr max time period for this if it transpires, with still very strong winds on front and back side. Thanks for post this Arisian.
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Post by TheAresian on Wed Dec 23, 2020 8:58 am

5 hours of 50+ winds. That's a June or July storm. Those kinds of winds at Christmas should come with a blizzard warning. Also looks like somebody is going to get absolutely drenched. 1.9" and 4.1" are not too far apart.

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:17 am

Jeeze news 12...

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread 138fc410
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:19 am

@TheAresian wrote:5 hours of 50+ winds. That's a June or July storm. Those kinds of winds at Christmas should come with a blizzard warning. Also looks like somebody is going to get absolutely drenched. 1.9" and 4.1" are not too far apart.
I would much prefer that trust me, my two fascinations in one : ) But sadly this is not the case by any chance.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:56 am

Based on what I am reading, the soundings are not showing much if any inversion. This means the high winds have a high chance of mixing down to the surface. Jersey shore into Long Island could see gusts in excess of 70 mph. Some models show even higher. Even those north and west are a threat to see gusts over 60 mph

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread Sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_ne

I know we poke fun of “wind” storms around here, and it is against the rules to criticize someone else’s enthusiasm toward anything let alone a weather phenomenon, but this threat should be taken seriously. Honestly, prepare as if you may not have power for a day or two. The timing is AWFUL that it comes on Christmas. I alerted my family that if my house in Cranford loses power, we’ll relocate to my nonnas house! Bringing all that food over would be interesting (2 10lb prime ribs)

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Dec 23, 2020 9:58 am

Euro gusts

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread Screenshot_20201223-071237_Chrome.jpg.3d9bffe26828a4a156e178ddb8400607

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:12 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Based on what I am reading, the soundings are not showing much if any inversion. This means the high winds have a high chance of mixing down to the surface. Jersey shore into Long Island could see gusts in excess of 70 mph. Some models show even higher. Even those north and west are a threat to see gusts over 60 mph

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread Sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_ne

I know we poke fun of “wind” storms around here, and it is against the rules to criticize someone else’s enthusiasm toward anything let alone a weather phenomenon, but this threat should be taken seriously. Honestly, prepare as if you may not have power for a day or two. The timing is AWFUL that it comes on Christmas. I alerted my family that if my house in Cranford loses power, we’ll relocate to my nonnas house! Bringing all that food over would be interesting (2 10lb prime ribs)
Jeeze and Frank I was expecting to see you post that it wasn't a true threat.  That map is nuts and HWW will need to be expanded well inland if these are true, so a inversion is when the winds are not allowed to mix down? Yeah thats some serious food wow, I love how you Italians love your food, I gotta have real italian one day, way back in HS I had a GF whos family was italian and their food was to die for. Sadly I know no one now.  Frank if I lose power can I relocate with ya lol, I promise not to discuss the wind.....yeah that was a total lie

That 72mph gust is white plains NY, and thats 20 miles north of me, it concerns me what down here closer to the coast we could be in for and even moreso the extreme coastal areas. Accuwx has max wind at 80mph.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:18 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Based on what I am reading, the soundings are not showing much if any inversion. This means the high winds have a high chance of mixing down to the surface. Jersey shore into Long Island could see gusts in excess of 70 mph. Some models show even higher. Even those north and west are a threat to see gusts over 60 mph

Dec. 24/25th High Wind & rain storm thread Sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_ne

I know we poke fun of “wind” storms around here, and it is against the rules to criticize someone else’s enthusiasm toward anything let alone a weather phenomenon, but this threat should be taken seriously. Honestly, prepare as if you may not have power for a day or two. The timing is AWFUL that it comes on Christmas. I alerted my family that if my house in Cranford loses power, we’ll relocate to my nonnas house! Bringing all that food over would be interesting (2 10lb prime ribs)
Am I correct in seeing that the highest winds could actually last about 3 hrs or so? Thats pretty bad if so, especially with saturated ground, I don't know about other places but its very soggy here already as the snow has sadly melted, my Alexa (not the electronic) was so upset to see it gone, she will be a welcome addition I am sure once she is old enough, I think she will think I am even crazier than I already am. Just FYI for some reason worse than me with wind she is obsessed with Tornadoes?
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Post by phil155 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:23 am

I am hoping the winds will not be quite that severe, I don't want to see widespread damage and power outages especially during the holidays.

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Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:45 am

Yeah, Frank, I was checking forecast soundings too and all I can say is.........YIKES. And Jman, it’s obviously dependent on the situation (if there’s an inversion, for example, then the following won’t work), but generally 70-80% of 850mb winds is a fair estimate for the surface.

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Post by phil155 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:53 am

@rb924119 wrote:Yeah, Frank, I was checking forecast soundings too and all I can say is.........YIKES. And Jman, it’s obviously dependent on the situation (if there’s an inversion, for example, then the following won’t work), but generally 70-80% of 850mb winds is a fair estimate for the surface.

I am thinking you are going to be correct overall but hoping you will be wrong and the winds will not be quite as extreme.

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Post by rb924119 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 10:58 am

What’s even more concerning, is that not only is there no inversion, but the maximum lift is in the lower levels, and it’s STRONG.

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Post by phil155 on Wed Dec 23, 2020 11:00 am

I am thinking the strongest of the winds will likely be towards the shore and long Island but further inland realistically what should we expect, 30-40 sustained gusts to 50-60

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